Plus, a preview of what the Boilermakers have done so far this season.
Gonzaga needs to focus more on slowing down Purdue’s supporting staff than Zach Edey
You just have to live with Zach Edey doing Zach Edey things. I mean, it’s been proven time after time again that you can’t stop the best player in the country no matter what you throw his way. It’s reassuring to know that Mark Few has four more than quality big men at his disposal to slow down Zach Edey but even that’s not enough it seems. So, limiting how much help he gets from his teammates is the biggest key for the Zags to come out victorious.
Last time Gonzaga and Purdue played each other, the Boilermakers only shot 23.5 3PT% (the Zags also did shoot an abysmal 18.8 3PT%). To come away with a win while shooting that low of a percentage from deep is extremely lucky. And I would put good money on Purdue shooting at much better clip than that this time around. Gonzaga needs to focus in on putting pressure on Purdue’s ball-handlers and shooters out on the perimeter (give Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Lance Jones no breathing room each time the ball touches their hands). The Boilermakers are the best three-point shooting team in the country so that’s a massive ask but it’s do or die time for the Zags.
Nolan Hickman’s three-point shooting and Ryan Nembhard’s control of the floor
I have a gut feeling that Nolan Hickman is going to be the guy to watch out for in this matchup. When he made that switch to the shooting guard position with Ryan Nembhard taking over the reins as the lead guard, it opened up Hickman’s offensive game so much and he was free to be more of the scorer that he is capable of. Especially from beyond the arc as of late (leading the team with 41.8 3PT%). Against Kansas, Hickman finished with 17 points on 7-11 FG and 3-4 3PT. His catch-and-shoot game has been a killer.
When Nembhard leads that fast tempo after turnovers (which Purdue should do quite a bit at 134th in the nation), Gonzaga takes full control of the flow of the game. The Boilermakers aren’t a that solid of a defensive team, especially when trying to stop their opponent in transition.
The Zags are seventh in the country for effective field goal percentage and that has to do with Nembhard setting up his teammates for the best possible offensive looks. In the NCAA Tournament, he’s averaging 10.5 APG through two games (his 21 assists is the second most behind Tyler Kolek of Marquette’s 22). Nembhard’s been the dime maker for the Zags and a major reason why this offensive spark has shown up in March Madness. He just needs to take a bit better care of the ball as he’s averaging 4 turnovers.
Winning the rebounding battle
The three big man starting lineup for the Zags is hard to stop on the glass. Gonzaga has been one of the better rebounding teams in the country at 39.1 RPG and needs to continue that trend. Back in November between Purdue and Gonzaga, it was knotted up on the glass at 38 apiece. Who knows if a few more key rebounds in some important spots down the stretch of that game could’ve been the difference. Box out, be physical but be smart with the fouling (this was directed at Graham Ike). You don’t want to go without your leader in rebounding at 7.3 RPG for long stretches.
Purdue’s record –
31-4, 17-3 (W vs Samford, W vs Morehead State, W vs Xavier, W vs #11 Gonzaga, W vs #7 Tennessee, W vs #4 Marquette, W vs Texas Southern, L @ Northwestern, W vs Iowa, W vs Alabama, W vs #1 Arizona, W vs Jacksonville, W vs Eastern Kentucky, W @ Maryland, W vs #9 Illinois, L @ Nebraska, W vs Penn State, W @ Indiana, W @ Iowa, W vs Michigan, W vs Rutgers, W @ Northwestern, W @ #6 Wisconsin, W vs Indiana, W vs Minnesota, L @ Ohio State, W vs Rutgers, W @ Michigan, W vs Michigan State, W @ #12 Illinois, W vs Wisconsin, W vs Michigan State in Big Ten quarterfinals, L vs Wisconsin in Big Ten semifinals, W vs Grambling State in NCAA Tournament first round, W vs Utah State in NCAA Tournament second round)
Key stats –
83.9 PPG (11th in the nation)
69.5 points allowed
49.0 FG% (11th in the nation)
40.9 3P% (1st in the nation)
72.1 FT%
40.8 RPG (9th in the nation)
18.8 APG (2nd in the nation)
5.7 SPG
3.9 BPG
11.4 TO
KenPom rankings –
#3 overall
125.9 adjusted offensive efficiency (#3)
95.3 adjusted defensive efficiency (#15)
Key player to watch for –
Zach Edey (senior, center): 24.5 PPG (1st in the nation) on 62.3 FG% (16th in the nation), 12.1 RPG (3rd in the nation), 2.3 BPG (18th in the nation), 2.1 APG
I have nightmares about this guy. With his enormous size and soft touch around the rim, Edey will be going back-to-back as the National Player of the Year. He brings heavy pressure to his opposing frontcourts (even with Gonzaga’s depth and size with those positions, doesn’t matter). The giant also has looked much more comfortable at the free throw line (71.4 FT% this season).
Being physical, getting Edey in early foul trouble/tired from Gonzaga up-and-down tempo, and keeping him off the floor as much as possible is the name of the game when trying to stop the 7’4” beast. Switching out different defenders on Edey and seeing which of the Gonzaga big men can stop him in his tracks will be very interesting to watch once again. Fronting the post with Braden Huff and/or Ben Gregg will be thrown out there by Mark Few, I’m sure and doesn’t seem like a bad idea.
Tune into TBS/TruTV at 4:39 PM PT on Friday to catch Round 2 between these two programs this season. With the high scoring offense that both Purdue and Gonzaga produce (both are in the Top 10 for adjusted offensive efficiency as well), this looks to be one of the most entertaining games on the Sweet Sixteen’s docket. Plus, the atmosphere is going to be electric. Gonzaga fans always travel well no matter what but so do Purdue fans if you remember back to the Maui Invitational in Hawaii and even at the Phil Knight Invitational in Portland. I expect a major haul of Boilermakers to travel from Indiana up to Michigan.
Purdue is a 5.5 point favorites over Gonzaga, O/U is 154.5, moneyline for Gonzaga is +195 and -238 for Purdue. Plus, Gonzaga is tied for the third best odds to win the Midwest region and make it to the Final Four at +450. (according to DraftKings – Odds/lines are subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.)
Arden Cravalho is a Gonzaga University graduate from the Bay Area… Follow him on Twitter @a_cravalho