Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s Preview

The WCC’s biggest rivalry is back on as Gonzaga heads to Moraga to take on the Gaels. Tipoff is scheduled for Saturday Feb 1 at 8:00 PM PST, coverage provided by ESPN2

As a Gonzaga fan, I truly love watching the Bulldogs face off against their longtime rivals, the Saint Mary’s Gaels. This matchup has provided fans on both sides with some of the most thrilling—and gut-wrenching—games in all of college basketball. I’ll always make sure to tune in for the St. Mary’s game.

But as a fan of basketball itself, I almost wish I didn’t have to. The Zags and the Gaels play two diametrically opposed styles of basketball, and watching Saint Mary’s can feel to a Zag fan like unanesthetized dental surgery on a moving train or being repeatedly punched in the solar plexus while standing in line at the DMV. Their plodding, sluggish, and intensely physical style of play can be maddening, especially for those accustomed to Gonzaga’s speed and fluidity. The fact that the Gaels continue to keep this rivalry competitive—despite the sheer joylessness of Randy Bennett’s style of play—only makes the whole thing that much more infuriating. It’s easy to hate St. Mary’s as a Zag fan, but there’s a lot to dislike about their style of play, regardless of who you’re rooting for.

Like most longtime diehard fans, there’s a lot I would like to say about Saint Mary’s and Randy Bennett, but in the best interest of journalistic professionalism, all that might be better left to the comments section…

It feels like there’s even more on the line in this Saturday’s matchup than usual. It’s a rivalry game, yes, but whoever comes out on top in Moraga will also likely find themselves in the AP Top 25 next week, and for both teams, a win would be a huge boon to their tournament resumes. There’s a lot of pride and bragging rights on the line, and I, for one, can’t wait.

Meet the Gaels

Saint Mary’s currently sits atop the WCC standings with a 19-3 record. Their three losses came against Arizona State, Boise State, and Utah State, but since conference play began, they’ve been flawless, going 9-0, including last week’s wins over WSU and Santa Clara.

The Gaels are 2-0 in Quad 1 games (against Utah and Santa Clara) and 4-3 in Quad 2. Although they’re ranked #24 in the NET, they sit (like Gonzaga) just outside the AP Top 25. According to KenPom metrics, Saint Mary’s ranks #23, with the 31st-best offensive efficiency metrics in the country and the 26th-best defensive metrics.

To truly understand Saint Mary’s, though, you need to consider their most unique and infuriating attribute: their pace of play. The Gaels’ adjusted tempo score according to KenPom is 62.1, which ranks 356th in the nation, and their average length of possession—20 seconds—makes them the 6th-slowest team in D1 basketball. To say the Gaels like to take things slow is a dramatic understatement.

Despite their impressive rankings and metrics, though, they’ve yet to play a Top 25 opponent. They’ve bulldozed their way through the WCC’s bottom half in recent months but have also struggled at times against bigger, stronger, and faster teams. The Zags have not yet played a team with a defense and tempo like Saint Mary’s, and the Gaels have yet to face an opponent with the speed and skill of Gonzaga.

How the Gaels Win

Offensively, Saint Mary’s is infuriatingly patient. They move the ball around methodically to find high-percentage shots near the rim, and if they can’t get a clean look from close range, they’ll shoot from deep as the shot clock winds down. Playing this slow would typically be a losing strategy for any team, but their wildly physical defense and commitment to dominating the glass on both sides allow them to control the pace of play and slowly but surely build out a lead.

On defense, they’re one of the most physical teams in the nation and rely on dominating the boards at all five positions. Saint Mary’s ranks tied with Illinois and Milwaukee for 1st in the nation in rebounding margin, averaging 11 more per game than their opponents. Bennett’s defense aims to slow the game down, frustrating opponents with tight coverage, minimal fouling, and effective disruption of fast breaks.

They’ve held opponents to just 55.6 ppg in conference play while scoring 77.5 themselves. They’re ranked #15 in the nation for turnovers forced per game and have limited opponents to 38.6% shooting from the field. No team has scored more than 75 points against them this season, and their losses to ASU, Boise, and Utah State were by margins of just 4, 2, and 7 points, respectively.

Gonzaga’s two losses to Saint Mary’s last season were their lowest-scoring games of the season for the Zags, with just 62 and 60 total points scored. In both games, they were held to under 45% shooting from the field, and in the first, they shot just 3-14 from beyond the arc. In their WCC Championship loss, they shot just 2-11 from outside.

To say the Gaels like to “muck it up” is an understatement of the sheer volume of muck Randy Bennett traffics in. These rivalry games often play out like an experiment in hurling an unstoppable force at an immovable object.

Key Players to Watch

Mitchell Saxen: The Gaels’ 6’10” senior is averaging 10.5 ppg and 7.8 rpg while shooting 52.8% from the field this season. Saxen is the focal point of their offense in the low post, where he can be deadly with his back to the basket. Expect the Gaels to work the ball inside early and often. Saxen’s reliability paired with his patience and poise, makes him the ideal big man for Randy Bennett’s offense. He gets buckets, but in two of St. Mary’s losses, shutting him down has been the key to victory.

Augustas Marciulionis: The veteran point guard has stepped in to lead of the offense following Aidan Mahaney’s ill-fated departure to UConn. Marciulionis is averaging 13.6 ppg and 5.7 apg. His numbers don’t leap off the page, but for St. Mary’s, 13.6 points per game is substantial. Marciulionis lacks Mahaney’s explosiveness but spaces the floor well, runs the offense efficiently, and can attack off the dribble when necessary. Gonzaga’s guards will need to pick him up defensively as soon as he crosses half-court and keep him from getting into the key late in the shot clock, as he’s a great finesse finisher at the rim.

Paulius Murauskas: The 6’8” Lithuanian sophomore is exactly the type of player Gonzaga has struggled to defend this season. The Arizona transfer has the size of a power forward and the skills of a guard. Murauskas moves well without the ball and has a classic Euro-style ability to create space and elevate for his shot. What he does best, though, is rebound—he currently leads the Gaels with 8.9 boards per game. He grabbed 14 against Santa Clara and 12 against WSU last week, so whoever defends the big man will need to box out aggressively as soon as a shot goes up.

How the Zags Win

Full-Court Defense: With Innocenti entering the starting lineup, the Zags are going 9-deep. This means fresh legs off the bench. They’ve been using a full-court trap press to speed up opponents and force turnovers lately, and it’s been working swimmingly. The combination of Innocenti and Ajayi running the trap worked well against Portland and was even more effective against OSU. Anything the Zags can do to wear down the Gaels and speed up the game will be a major advantage. St. Mary’s isn’t a deep team this year, so fatigue, fouls, and sustained intensity may become deciding factors.

Push the Tempo: The Zags will need to do everything they can to keep the ball moving and seek fast-break opportunities aggressively against Saint Mary’s. The Zags can’t afford to simply bring the ball across half-court and wait for the defense to relent—it won’t happen. Against the Gaels, it’s not just about getting points, it’s about how quickly you can do it and how few possessions you require to get them.

Khalif Battle: The Zags have never had a weapon like Khalif Battle. If the Gaels allow him to get downhill and attack the basket, he could cause major problems for their frontcourt. St. Mary’s isn’t very deep, and fouls will be costly. Fortunately for the Zags, Battle draws contact and converts from the free-throw line better than anyone in college basketball. Expect some isolation plays for him to drive at Saxen and/or Murauskas at the rim. Couple his ability to drive with the outside shooting he displayed against OSU, and Khalif Battle could have exactly the type of game Zag fans have been looking for all season. This is a game the Zags can win if Khalif can apply foul pressure, hit free throws, and connect from outside quickly. Fortunately for Zag fans, that’s exactly what he does best.

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, the Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s rivalry is what makes college basketball so interesting and fun. It’s the ultimate clash of styles—Gonzaga’s fast-paced, fluid offense against Saint Mary’s methodical, tough defense. It can be frustrating to watch the Gaels slow things down and try to bleed you dry, but that’s what makes the matchup so interesting. Every possession is a battle, every shot matters, and on Saturday, there’s a lot on the line for both teams. For the Zags to come out on top, they’ll need to push the tempo, capitalize on transition opportunities, and overwhelm the Gaels’ defense with their versatility and speed. No matter how you feel about Randy Bennett’s style or Saint Mary’s in general (and please feel free to let us know in the comments…), it’s a rivalry that delivers every year, and this game is not one to be missed.