Dating back to 2018, two things have been true about the Offensive Player of the Year award in the Big Ten. It has primarily been an Ohio State award and a quarterback award. Last season, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel became the first non-Buckeye to win the award since the cutoff date. The only non-quarterback winner in that span is Marvin Harrison Jr (2023).
As we enter the upcoming season, recent trends suggest that the winner of the award will play for Ohio State, or be a quarterback, or both. What’s unique about Ohio State’s continuity of brilliance is that the three quarterback winners since 2018 – Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields, and C.J. Stroud – all captured the honor in their first year as a starter. Haskins left for the NFL after his lone season as a starter. Fields and Stroud both repeated as award winners. I venture through all of these thoughts to say that perhaps former five-star Julian Sayin has a better shot than I initially presumed. Sayin was the third-ranked quarterback in the Class of 2024, according to 247Sports, which slotted behind Florida’s DJ Lagway and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola, in that order.
Immediately, I eliminate UCLA’s Nico Iamaleave, who has plenty of talent but will not win nearly enough games to put himself in the running for the award. Next, I eliminate Penn State’s star trio in quarterback Drew Allar, and running backs Nic Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The Nittany Lions could end up the best team in the conference. However, offensively, that team should be incredibly balanced, which impacts the statistical output of all three.
Shifting to my top candidates, I take a hard look at the sophomore I deem to be the best offensive player in the nation, Jeremiah Smith. Taking a glance at the conference, Smith is the easy choice, right? He’s dynamic, a daunting matchup, clutch, incredibly reliable, and a proven star– but he isn’t Superman. That sentiment isn’t a slight, but rather an obvious observation. Smith, as great as he is, couldn’t dominate against Texas because the Longhorns assigned half of the state against him in coverage. I expect that Ohio State’s other receivers will step up, as players so often do when coached by wide receiver coach Brian Hartline. But what if they don’t? What if Carnell Tate and Brandon Innis fail to take the next step, making it easy for defensive coordinators to key in on Smith and live with the results?
Meanwhile, sitting south of Montlake is Eugene, where the latest highly touted Duck transfer resides. Unlike Bo Nix (Auburn) and Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma, UCF), Moore relocated to Oregon and sat for a year. Typically, that wouldn’t add to the allure of a player. But it’s safe to assume he has learned a ton over the last two seasons, considering he started at UCLA as a freshman and threw 11 touchdowns with nine interceptions. I don’t view Nix or Gabriel as high-caliber quarterbacks talent-wise, but they both put up gaudy numbers and finished as Heisman Trophy candidates in Oregon’s offense. Now it’s Moore’s turn, and there isn’t evidence to suggest that trend will discontinue. Only Arch Manning and Iamaleave were ranked higher than Moore in the Class of 2023 (247Sports), so his perception is evident.
Speaking of Montlake, three candidates immediately come to mind in quarterback Demond Williams, running back Jonah Coleman, and wide receiver Denzel Boston. In case you haven’t mourned the Pac-12 in a while, imagine the perception of that trio and the Huskies as a whole if the once-West Coast power conference was still, well, a power conference. Instead, the Huskies play in the loaded Big Ten, and while a run to the College Football Playoff is certainly possible, it’d be dramatically tougher to do in the Big Ten rather than the Pac-12. Nonetheless, if the Huskies are near the top of the conference at the end of the season, Williams, Coleman, and Boston will likely have had spectacular seasons, and at least one of the three will be in the running for the reward. The Husky I deem most likely to win it is Coleman, which actually feels like a hot take after the media buzz Williams has received this offseason. Last season, UWDP staff often found his lack of carries puzzling. In his career, he’s yet to log over 25 carries in a game, but he’s in the best shape of his life entering the upcoming season, which should mean an influx of touches. He’s already one of the best running backs in the nation. Now imagine if he gets the reps of a traditional star Big Ten running back.
Potential sleeper:
In college football, there isn’t a coach I trust more to bring the best out of an offensive player than USC’s Lincoln Riley. USC is highly underrated and will either reach the College Football Playoff or knock on the door. The Trojans were so close, so many times, to getting over the hump and being a team worth talking about. Still, the inability to finish games muddied the progress Riley made, especially on the defensive end, led by coordinator D’Anton Lynn. USC’s defense will take another step forward, and it’ll be its offense that determines whether or not the Trojans have a breakthrough season. USC’s Jayden Maiava moves like an ideal Riley quarterback when you consider his lack of fear to push the ball downfield and dual-threat ability. Maiava isn’t perfect in that regard – I believe Demond Williams is a much better version of him – but Riley’s system will allow him to flourish. Helping Maiava’s case are wide receivers like Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon, who I predict will have monster campaigns.
Prediction:
I thought about my expectations for the upcoming season. I considered recent trends, paths, roster makeup, and did my best to eliminate “what ifs.” Doing so brought me to a conclusion.
Ohio State’s Julian Sayin will win the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year award. I’d be shocked if Jeremiah Smith leads the nation in receiving due to the attention he will receive from defenses. But as I mentioned above, heightened attention on Smith leads to immense opportunities for Carnell Tate and Brandon Innis. The Buckeyes’ defense should be great again, likely leading to short fields and additional possessions for Sayin to go to work. Additionally, the Buckeyes’ new running back duo has star potential (James Peoples and West Virginia transfer CJ Donaldson). Still, it is unlikely to log similar numbers to TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins from a season ago. If they do, that makes Ohio State’s offense nearly unstoppable, which bodes well for Sayin, who would feast on play-action shots downfield. If they don’t, Ohio State will be pass-happy and has the pieces to succeed with that style of play. If Smith garners Texas-level attention from secondaries, short completions and YAC will boost Sayin’s numbers. If the other receivers make the expected leap, the best offensive player in the nation will leave shattered confidence and bruised egos in his wake.
And most importantly, Sayin could become a household name in his first career start if he has a good performance and OSU topples Texas in Week 1.