Welcome back to another season of the Big 10 Pick 6. Each week, I will pick six Big 10 games both straight up and against the spread. This season will be my 6th of picking games for UWDP. I’m 74% SU and 50% ATS over nearly 400 games picked. I was well below those figures last year, the first time picking Big 10 games. Here’s hoping that a year of familiarity with the teams yields better results this time around.
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
Nebraska (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati (neutral location)
The Bearcats were an extremely average team in 2024 and there’s a good chance they will be again. Matt Rhule got the defense clicking in Lincoln last season. Their ceiling for this year depends on whether Dylan Raiola can bring the offense to a comparable level. I believe in the Huskers’ defense enough that the offensive ceiling probably won’t be the deciding factor until they run into better competition.
Nebraska 24 – Cincinnati 14
FAU @ Maryland (-14.5)
I try to avoid picking games against FCS opponents, so we end up with some strange matchups making it onto the list in Week 1. Both of these teams collapsed down the stretch in ‘24. The Terps finished 1-8 in conference despite feeling pretty good going into the year. Mike Locksley brought in Malik Washington, one of the top QB recruits in the country, and he should start. Washington will bring volatility, so things could get weird, but I will take the talent baseline talent level since I see no reason to believe in FAU.
Maryland 35 – FAU 17
Northwestern @ Tulane (-5.5)
The honeymoon vibes David Braun got from going 8-5 in his first season wore off in year two. The Wildcats only won conference games against Maryland and Purdue, which means they were about as bad as possible without being the worst. Approximately half of their starters will be incoming transfers. Tulane was quite good in Jon Sumrall’s first season with the team. They lost a lot of talent to the transfer portal, but also stumbled into Jake Retzlaff at QB (getting kicked out of BYU for violating their morality code and landing in New Orleans is absolutely appropriate). The line here could be a lot bigger and probably would be if not for a G5 “tax” on Tulane.
Tulane 33 – Northwestern 23
Nevada @ Penn St. (-44.5)
The 40+ point lines are the games I try to avoid picking. If Penn St wins by 40 instead of 48, have they really proven anything more? Friend of UW Jeff Choate is in his second season at Nevada and started with the program in a big hole. I suspect that Penn St’s RB duo of Allen and Singleton will do mostly whatever they like, but will play very little in the second half. Choate put together consistently good defenses at Montana St and improved a lot in year one at Nevada. Maybe, just maybe, they can keep it within 7 TDs.
Penn St 49 – Nevada 6
Texas @ Ohio St (-2.5)
Texas is ranked #1 in the preseason AP poll, but there are a handful of teams that are all about as impressive as one another. Ohio State is in that group. Ranked #3, it’s not a surprise that they are slightly favored against the higher ranked team. Coming off their Championship, the Buckeyes lost a lot, including both coordinators. I think Chip Kelly’s return to the NFL might be the biggest loss for OSU. At QB, Arch Manning is a bigger name than Julian Sayin, but neither has accomplished much against college defenses so far. With really good defenses and inexperienced QB, I will slightly err on the side of home field advantage in a game that turns out to be a rock fight.
Ohio St 20 – Texas 17
Colorado St @ Washington (-22.5)
Jay Norvell has turned Colorado St into a consistently respectable team. They bring back QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi for his third year as the starter. He tallied almost 3,500 yards in ‘23, but also threw 16 interceptions. His numbers regressed last year due to a receiving corps that was injured and underperforming. With UW’s secondary strength, it will not be easy for a sub-par receiving group to make big plays. CSU will also start a RB who got benched last year behind five new offensive line starters. The Dawgs have legitimate questions along the defensive front, but this is a gentle start for that group. Unless the Rams suddenly perform much better than their component pieces have in the past, it should be a good introduction for Ryan Walters as the DC.
The alignment of strengths and weaknesses is not as favorable for the UW offense. Some of the most interesting players on the defense line up on the edge and the Rams should be able to get pressure on the QB. UW starts a converted LT and a RT who did not play well last year in front of a QB who is still calibrating his internal pressure clock. The Huskies should be able to run the ball, but if Demond Williams takes too many ill-timed sacks, it could cause promising drives to stall out.
Based on the reports through the fall, I expect the defense to look better than the offense in Week 1, but I think the offense should be able to put up numbers nonetheless. It’s fair to question whether they score enough to cover a spread greater than three TDs, but I’ll take optimism into the season opener.
Washington 35 – Colorado St 10