I have been perfect on my 12 straight-up picks the last two weeks. My ATS last week were not as strong (2-4). I picked Maryland and Rutgers to cover big spreads against Indiana and Illinois, respectively, but the superior teams had no trouble pulling away in either game. With the Huskies back in action, it will be another week of trying to figure out if some of the Big 10’s upper-crust can cover big numbers against more pedestrian teams.
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
Washington @ Wisconsin (+11.5)
Prior to the season, this game was one a lot of UW fans had circled on the calendar, either as a potential road trip to see a fun environment or a crucial match-up of teams striving to get into contention in the conference. Instead, the Badgers have flopped hard this season and it’s harder to come up with a reason for why this game should be especially entertaining.
In the end, it’s that same home field advantage that creates some intrigue between a UW team on the rise and a Wisconsin team playing out the string for an apparent lame duck coach in Luke Fickell. If the Dawgs didn’t have to cross two time zones and play half a country away, there would be virtually no reason to think Wisconsin could hang in this game. Their offense simply hasn’t done enough to compete with even mediocre conference opponents. The injury to QB Danny O’Neil left Hunter Simmons in charge of the offense and his stats look like something out of the 1960s, or worse, an Iowa offense. Through five games, Simmons is completing exactly 50% of his passes with a 2/5 TD/Int ratio. The result is that the Badgers have scored 27 points in their five conference games. Not 27 combined points. 27 points.
The defense has been a bit better, as evidenced by the 21 points they allowed to Oregon in their last game. They are adequate against the run and opponents have tried to go after their pass defense. Even though the defense is decent, it will take self-inflicted wounds by Washington to keep this game close. The Dawgs are certainly capable, with multiple slow starts and numerous penalties on their resume. But with a bye week to prepare, I don’t see any logical reason for the Badgers to keep it very close.
Washington 28 – Wisconsin 10
Northwestern @ USC (-14.5)
The Trojans have had some questionable performances against teams with inferior talent, but they have taken care of business at home. Northwestern has had enough going defensively keep games low scoring and take advantage of some disorganized teams. It’s certainly possible to envision a version of this game where the Wildcats keep it close with opportunistic defense. I think it’s more likely the USC offensive fireworks put it away early.
USC 34 – Northwestern 17
Indiana @ Penn St (+13.5)
According to Predator, “if it bleeds, we can kill it.” I haven’t seen any evidence yet that this Indiana team bleeds. Penn St, despite its five-game losing streak, has only lost one of those games by more than six points. That was on the road against Ohio St. Although I’m not the biggest Drew Allar fan, trying to hang with the Hoosiers with an inexperienced QB sounds like a recipe for disaster, even in Happy Valley.
Indiana 33 – Penn St 14
Maryland @ Rutgers (+1.5)
These two teams are joined in my mind as “pretty good” wins for the Huskies. Both teams have slid since losing to the Dawgs, but luckily, one of them has to win this one and get within a game of bowl eligibility. I think the line has rightly pegged that Maryland is slightly better, though Rutgers playing at home makes it a fairly even match-up. The Maryland defense and Rutgers offense are the relative strengths while the opposite units struggle. I expect Maryland to force Rutgers into a mistake or two that gets them a big road win.
Maryland 27 – Rutgers 24
Nebraska @ UCLA (-2.5)
I have struggled to pin down Nebraska since the start of the year. The loss of Dylan Raiola should doom the offense, right? Or does the return of ground-and-pound behind 1000-yard rusher Emmet Johnson suit Matt Rhule’s team better? I’m still a little perplexed by UCLA’s three-game winning streak before the devastating loss to Indiana. I suspect they are still the below-average team their aggregate performance indicates. Raiola’s absence will keep the game close, though I still think Nebraska can win on the road.
Nebraska 24 – UCLA 20
Oregon @ Iowa (+6.5)
The Ducks have had some up and down performances over the season with little regard for whether they have been at home or away. They are capable of blowing out teams on the road (Rutgers) or playing inferior teams close at home (Wisconsin). The question is whether Iowa will be able to move the ball at all. Oregon’s defense has been very good, but better against the pass than the run. I think Iowa will keep it close and low scoring, but I will take Oregon to pull it out in the end.
Oregon 23 – Iowa 20