With only one Big 10 game left in the season, I will broaden my horizons and pick each of the Power 4 Conference Championship Games.
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
BYU vs. Texas Tech (-12.5)
Both teams enter at 11-1 and likely need to win to get into the CFP, though TTU could conceivably stay in the top 12 despite a loss. The Red Raiders won the regular season match-up 27-9 in Lubbock. Their single loss came on the road against Arizona St, 26-22. Both teams lean on very good defenses, though TTU’s (4th nationally by SP+) is probably even better than BYU’s (20th). I like the Raiders’ offense slightly better. Behren Morton has played some of his best football after coming back from injury four weeks ago. I think the game will be closer than the spread, but I will take Texas Tech to win and earn a CFP bye.
Texas Tech 24 – BYU 20
Alabama vs. Georgia (-1.5)
These teams played one of the most intense games of the year when the Tide beat the Bulldogs 24-21 in Tuscaloosa early in the season. Before and after that game, Alabama had games against FSU and Oklahoma where their offense fizzled and they lost as a significant favorite. Ty Simpson has been the better QB over the course of the year, though some of that comes down to the more conservative approach that Georgia uses with Gunner Stockton. Both QBs can beat even very good defenses. That difference in approach is the biggest distinction between the two teams- Georgia likes to run the ball at least as much as pass, while Kalen DeBoer and the Tide are one of the most pass-happy offenses in the country. This game could absolutely go either way. Late in the season, I will opt for the big-game playmakers, which leads me back to Alabama.
Alabama 30 – Georgia 27
Duke @ Virginia (-2.5)
One of these things is not like the other. The other three CCGs feature at least one team in the national top 4 and no team ranked lower than 11. #17 Virginia is well below any of them and Duke is outside the rankings entirely. The picture is even uglier by advanced stats. Virginia is 34th in EPA margin and Duke is 48. And yet, one of these teams will earn an automatic bid to the CFP. Virginia’s defense has come on strong late in the year and their 10-2 record is no fluke. Darian Mensah is a dangerous playmaker and could be the X-Factor for the underdogs. Unlike the Alabama-Georgia game, where I took the big play threat over the consistent run offense, I think Virginia is better than Duke by enough that the approach won’t be the tie-breaker.
Virginia 27 – Duke 17
Indiana vs. Ohio St (-5.5)
I was slightly surprised to see the Buckeyes favored by almost a TD even though there has been virtually nothing to separate these teams through the year. We’re lucky that there were no lightning strikes that got in the way of seeing these two face off. They have been the best two teams in the country all year and, without a game on the regular season schedule, at least we get to see it this weekend. Ohio St probably gets the perceived edge here because they finished strong with a decisive win over Michigan, whereas Indiana just hasn’t played any top teams since beating Oregon in early October. I don’t see a big difference between Mendoza and Sayin at QB. Both teams run the ball extremely well and don’t have any major holes on defense. You have to dig very deep to find anything to separate the squads. Ohio St’s championship run last year and Indiana’s scare against Penn St are the closest things I can find as differentiating factors. This one will be fun.
Ohio St 28 – Indiana 27