We are getting further into the season and learning more about each team. As a result, the lines are getting better and fewer games are coming in with wildly unexpected results. Of the six games picked last week, only Minnesota’s upset over Nebraska on Friday night jumped out as wildly out of line with expectations. In a sense, the games get easier to pick when you know more about the teams. On the other hand, it can also be more difficult because the odds makers also have a better idea of where to put the line to make both sides enticing.
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
Illinois @ Washington (-4.5)
Washington has been a much better team at Husky Stadium than on the road throughout Jedd Fisch’s tenure. Even after getting the monkey off his back by beating WSU and Maryland to get his first road win and first Big 10 road win with the Huskies, there’s still a clear step up on overall quality when playing at home. That factor can be the big difference between last week’s disappointment at Michigan and a hopefully better result against Illinois. After all, UW, Michigan, Illinois, and Nebraska were tightly clustered from 25-28 in the AP Poll last week and the Dawgs need to reverse the result against a similarly accomplished team. To that end, Fisch is 7-3 ATS as a home team with Washington and 1-7 away (non FCS games). His Husky teams aren’t just better at home, they’re better by more than Vegas as adjusted for.
Setting the odds talk aside, the matchup on the field is interesting. Illinois has some broad stylistic similarities to Rutgers- both teams pass better and more often than their smash-mouth reputation, and both have been surprisingly bad defensively. The Illini offense has grown with Luke Altmyer. The third-year starter has improved year-over-year and is up to a very good 9.5 yards per attempt. The Huskies haven’t given up tons of big pass plays, but they have been picked apart on short and medium-range passes. They need to pressure Altmyer and make more plays in the secondary. On offense, the Huskies can feast on short passes and yards after the catch.
Most analytics suggest the Huskies should win a close game. I don’t expect a high score because both teams play relatively slowly and should have plenty of long drives. The Dawgs are so much better at home that I think the analytics might underrate how much they gain at the Greatest Setting. The home crowd will turn some red zone opportunities into Illinois FGs and help the Huskies convert for TDs.
Washington 31 – Illinois 23
Northwestern @ Nebraska (-7.5)
It looked like Nebraska was rounding into form until they laid a big egg against an inferior Minnesota team last week. They have also been much better at home. Northwestern isn’t exactly bad at anything, but without a standout player or unit, it will be a struggle in most conference games. I will take my chances that last week was a weird result from a short week road game and the Huskers will bounce back.
Nebraska 30 – Northwestern 21
UCLA @ Indiana (-23.5)
Vegas is no longer sleeping on the Hoosiers, who are a 3.5 TD favorite against a team on a bona fide winning streak. I have been slow to believe in the Bruins, who are running the ball and defending competently after an incompetent start to the season. Still, they haven’t played anyone in this streak on the offensive tier of Indiana, who isn’t afraid to run up the score to put away a game.
Indiana 45 – UCLA 17
Minnesota @ Iowa (-7.5)
The battle for the Floyd of Rosedale will revolve around Iowa being Iowa. As always, they are good at pretty much everything, but god awful at passing the ball. The teams who have beat them this year (Iowa St and Indiana) both shut down the Iowa run game and made them zero-dimensional. Is Minnesota on that level defensively? They played great against Nebraska last week but have been uneven. I like Iowa to win, but due to their play style, it’s very possible that Minnesota could keep it within a TD. I’ll err on the side of Iowa, but a blowout would surprise me.
Iowa 21 – Minnesota 13
Wisconsin @ Oregon (-33.5)
This five TD spread looks incredibly large, but Oregon has laid the wood against Oklahoma St, Oregon St, and Rutgers (on the road). Wisconsin looks a lot like a team that has given up for the season and possibly given up on their coach. They have lost five straight, including the last two at home by a combined 71 points. Now they have to travel cross-country to play one of the top teams in the conference. Still, I’m a sucker for spreads this big. Oregon can win comfortably and still give up a cover.
Oregon 45 – Wisconsin 14
Michigan @ Michigan St (+14.5)
The Spartans are the only home dog featured this week They have lost all four of their conference games and their defense has been softer than papier mache. The lowest point total they have allowed in B1G play is 38, which they have bizarrely allowed in three straight games. The Michigan offense has been more steady than dominant, but coming off a bye against a rival would be a great time to take the next step. Michigan St has at least some offensive firepower to avoid a beatdown, but it’s hard to see the defense doing enough to win.
Michigan 38 – Michigan St 20