Week 3 was full of backdoor covers by inferior teams who were still blown out. Purdue covered against USC. Northwestern covered against Oregon. Ohio even eked out a cover against Ohio State. New Mexico’s trouncing of UCLA does not count because they won outright, and they might just be a better team than this miserable Bruins. The tough week brought me to 10-8 ATS and 15-3 SU for the season.
Iowa @ Rutgers (+2.5), Friday game
The only reason for Iowa to be the road favorite in this game is their brand name. Mark Gronowski has been a letdown after transferring from FCS powerhouse South Dakota State. Even against UMass last week he averaged under 7 YPA. Rutgers open the season with a scare against Ohio, but the Bobcats have gone on to beat West Virginia and cover against Ohio State. The phrase “classic Big 10 grinder” comes to mind, and in those games you take the points. If those points are on offer for the home team, even better.
Rutgers 20 – Iowa 17
Maryland @ Wisconsin (-10.5)
Speaking of teams getting the benefit of the doubt in the spread due to their brand name, it’s hard to fathom why Wisconsin would be a double-digit favorite against a conference foe. The Badgers offense looked mostly inept without QB Billie Edwards against Alabama last week. Maryland’s offense also hasn’t done much, but they have defended extremely well against lesser competition. What will happen if a pretty good Wisconsin run attack slams into a good Maryland run defense 40+ times? I’m not sure, but I doubt it will be a double-digit win.
Wisconsin 23 – Maryland 18
Michigan @ Nebraska (+2.5)
You can tell Big 10 conference play has arrived when almost every game preview is about which team will be more effective at executing their run-heavy attack. Once again, two teams that are better on defense will try to get the most out of a heralded young QB trying to take the step up to being a national contender. Bryce Underwood was good against New Mexico and CMU and bad against Oklahoma. Nebraska’s defense falls somewhere in the middle of that wide range. It’s worth noting that Nebraska was gashed on the ground by Cincinnati in the one game they played against a somewhat competitive opponent. Justice Haynes has run the ball very well for the Wolverines and he could be the difference here.
Michigan 21 – Nebraska 17
Indiana @ Illinois (+5.5)
Illinois comes out of Big 10 central casting with a ball control offensive approach, a stout defense, and a QB who manages the game without making many big plays. Indiana has a much more creative scheme and Curt Cignetti deserves tons of credit for keeping the machine clicking over with a brand new set of play-makers. Fernando Mendoza has been nearly flawless at QB and the stable of RBs, led by Kaelon Black, has provided a dangerous counter-balance. The Illinois defense is very good. It’s hard to pick against them at home, even against another top-20 team. I will split the difference and take the Illini to win but not cover.
Illinois 30 – Indiana 27
Michigan St @ USC (-18.5)
Pop quiz: where does USC rank nationally in Net EPA/Play? First! The Trojans have been the most efficient team in the country this year. The Lincoln Riley passing offense has Jordan Maiava doing his best Kyler Murray impersonation and the defense has been decidedly solid. The Spartans have opened with three wins, though they have not been entirely convincing. Aiden Chiles provides the possibility of fireworks, but they also yielded 40 points to BC and 24 to FCS Youngstown St. Mix in a long road trip and a late start time and there are plenty of ingredients for a blowout.
USC 40 – Michigan State 21
Washington @ Washington St. (+20.5)
There are upsides and downsides to playing a team coming off a miserable performance. The Cougs had one of their worst games since the Paul Wulff era in last week’s blowout loss to North Texas. Everything that could go wrong for Wazzu did go wrong, including 5 turnovers and only 2.3 yards per carry on the ground. Just by pure luck, it’s unlikely Wazzu can possibly play as badly a second week in a row. The added motivation of the Apple Cup and the relatively early point in the season means it would be premature to assume the Cougs are ready to give up on the season.
However, there is plenty of good news for Dawg fans. Namely, WSU is bad. There’s no perfect all-up metric for a team, but you could do worse than Net EPA/play, where WSU ranks 117th nationally. If you want to be charitable, you could describe their pass offense as “below average.” The rush offense, pass defense, and rush defense all range from bad to extremely bad. They are not equipped to target UW’s relative weakness against power run attacks and they have already shown a propensity to be gashed by good opposing runners (the Huskies have one of those).
There’s a blueprint for WSU to stay in games. They achieved a comfortable win over San Diego State by completing a high percentage of short passes to sustain drives and limiting explosive plays by the opponent. UW’s offense has shown a unique ability to sustain drives with diverse play-calling, so I am less concerned about the Dawgs shooting themselves in the foot. I remain a bit nervous about a three-TD spread on the road against a rival. If the wheels fall off for the Cougs for a second week in a row, it’s certainly possible to cover. I’m going to pick a comfortable Husky win, but not quite by the 20.5 point margin.
Washington 38 – WSU 20