Last week didn’t have a bevy of crazy upsets in the Big 10, but it did have some surprising results. Wisconsin, who looked very much like a lame duck team for most of the year, spanked #21 Illinois. Penn St hammered Nebraska, 37-10. Michigan St put up a good fight on the road against Iowa, requiring the Hawkeyes to score the final 13 points to win by a FG. Even the Huskies had a somewhat surprising result with a dominant display in a road venue that is usually a house or horrors. The result was a bizarre week for me- 0-6 ATS but 5-1 SU.
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
Oregon @ Washington (+6.5)
I wrote after Washington’s loss against Wisconsin that the game narrowed the range of possible paths for a great season to exactly one: beat Oregon. If the Huskies had beaten Wisconsin, Purdue, and UCLA, they would have entered this game 9-2. Even a competitive loss to a top rival would leave the Huskies in a very good bowl game, likely in the top 25, and with a solid chance at a double-digit win season. I will never complain about a 10-win season. After performing about as well as possible against Purdue and UCLA, that sentiment feels as true as ever. The season has been an improvement over last year, but if the Huskies don’t beat Oregon, it will feel like a big missed opportunity.
The game will not be easy. There are good reasons for Oregon being ranked sixth in the country. The have a stable of tough running backs and they like to run the ball often. They rank first in the country in rushing success rate and EPA per rush. The Washington run defense has improved over the course of the season, but most of the best games for the defense have come against teams multiple tiers below Oregon in ability. Offensively, the Dawgs will have to protect Demond Williams against a really good defensive front. UW has found success on broken plays due to Demond’s ability to improvise, but Oregon is 7th best in the country at limiting EPA on scrambles (and also great at preventing scrambles).
The Huskies absolutely have to minimize unforced errors. We can’t have any special teams gaffes, huge penalty yardage, or a turnover deficit. If the Dawgs can avoid all those pitfalls, effectively bring down runners on first contact, and maintain balanced drives, they can win the game. It’s a lot to ask, but that’s what it takes to beat a team ranked this high. The Dawgs have done all those things at different points this year. I hope they can do them all at the same time on Saturday.
Oregon 30 – Washington 23
Iowa @ Nebraska (+6)
It looked like Nebraska’s defense was hitting its stride with four straight games holding opponents to 24 or fewer. Then, Penn St of all teams exploded for 37. Iowa’s offense has been predictably meh recently. That all seems to add up to a low-scoring, defensive battle, which makes me err on the side of the home underdog.
Iowa 21 – Nebraska 17
Ohio St @ Michigan (+10)
If you watch any sporting event, there’s a decent chance you’ll see a sign reminding you how many days it has been since Ohio St beat MIchigan. The Buckeyes won a National Championship in that run, but they still cede bragging rights to their rivals up north. I believe that this version of Ohio St has a great offense and defense, while MIchigan has a great defense and just an OK offense. If Ryan Day and Brian Hartline go into a turtle shell with overly conservative play-calling, Michigan can pull off another upset. If they play to their strengths, I think this is the year Day breaks through.
Ohio St 35 – Michigan 23
UCLA @ USC (-21.5)
Lincoln Riley has a reputation for not being able to win big games at USC. Maybe that’s true, but he neither has nor deserves a reputation for losing to inferior rivals. The Bruins have lost three of their last four by 34+ points. Their “new coach bounce” after firing Deshaun Foster is long gone and the season is at least mostly dead. USC is coming off a pretty straightforward loss in Eugene, but they should be able to outclass UCLA.
USC 45 – UCLA 20
Wisconsin @ Minnesota (-1.5)
The Badgers have been on a definite upswing. They beat Washington and Illinois and competed well against Indiana for most of game in between. The Gophers got bowl eligible against Michigan St and looked very bad against Oregon and Northwestern since then. However, Minnesota has been much better at home this year and the Badgers haven’t won away from Camp Randall. The Gophers’ bad run could continue, but I think they can bounce back at home.
Minnesota 28 – Wisconsin 24
Northwestern @ Illinois (-7)
It feels untrue to say that Illinois is 1 game ahead of Northwestern and tied in the conference standings. Northwestern’s schedule has been somewhat generous- they beat Penn St at the bottom of their trough and won home games against UCLA, Purdue, and MInnesota. Still, there’s something to be said for winning the games you’re supposed to win. The other side of the coin is that I see little reason to believe Northwestern will beat their in-state rival. Illinois has been uneven, but they can run and pass the ball well enough that Northwestern won’t be able to shut them down.
Illinois 28 – Northwestern 20