I had a chance to go 4-2 ATS for the week going into the Apple Cup. Alas, the Dawgs’ utter offensive dominance for another week covered a spread that I thought they would be unable to cover. I will always take that tradeoff if it means better performances for UW. Plus, it was a nice way for Fisch to emphatically remove the monkey from his back about winning games on the road.
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
Rutgers @ Minnesota (-5.5)
Minnesota looked good early in the season, but took a beating against Cal its last time out. Now coming off a bye, the health of star RB Darius Taylor is still somewhat in question. Former Gopher Ethan Kaliakmanis returns to the Twin Cities having his best QB season so far for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers looked like they were on the verge of a breakthrough win against Iowa last week before folding late. I think Minnesota’s physicality will have a similar impact, though the game should be tight.
Minnesota 24 – Rutgers 21
USC @ Illinois (+6.5)
A week ago, Illinois was in the national top 10. An absolute bludgeoning at the hands of Indiana has now made them nearly a TD favorite at home. USC took care of business at home against Michigan State, albeit without the improved defensive performance we had seen up to that point. Still, I don’t believe that Illinois has the explosive options to keep up with USC, and if the Illini defense looks anything like it did last week, USC could pull away.
USC 41 – Illinois 28
Indiana @ Iowa (+7.5)
Here’s part two of the giant swings in perception coming out of the Indiana-Illinois game. Iowa entered the season picked in the middle of a loaded Big 10, and has held serve across four games, including a walk-off FG loss on the road to Iowa State. So how are they disfavored by more than a TD at home? It depends on how much you think last week was Indiana’s proof of concept vs. how much was a one-time fluke. If you believe that Indiana is even better than last year, then it’s possible for them to overwhelm another ground-and-pound opponent here.
Indiana 33 – Iowa 23
UCLA @ Northwestern (-6.5)
Unfortunately, there are exactly six Big 10 games this weekend, which means I have to make a pick between the two worst teams in the conference. Neither team has a win against an FBS opponent and it is probably UCLA’s best chance to get one this year. At least UCLA avoided a mass exodus into the transfer portal after firing Deshaun Foster. Maybe they can get an interim HC boost from Tim Skipper? Northwestern hasn’t been terrible, but their offense has been pretty anemic, so it won’t be easy for them to pull away, even if UCLA remains bad.
Northwestern 27 – UCLA 21
Oregon @ Penn State (-3.5)
Penn State is 6-0 in White Out games, which they will deploy on Saturday. That settles it, right? Well, keep in mind that James Franklin is 4-20 against top-10 opponents. More analytically, they best things both teams do line up well- Penn State defends the run extremely well and Oregon runs the ball well. My biggest concern is probably whether Drew Allar can create enough explosive plays because, great as the Nittany Lion defense is, I don’t think it can shut down Oregon entirely. If Allar is merely good, Penn State might be able to get juuuuust enough out of their superstar RBs to eke out a win. Oregon can definitely pull the slight upset if the offense remains clean for the full game, but I will err on the side of the home team and the more experienced QB.
Penn St 28 – Oregon 24
Ohio State @ Washington (+9.5)
I have underrated Washington pretty consistently so far this year. The offense has simply been better and more consistent than I expected, starting along the offensive line. I guess it’s not surprising that I saw the line at Washington +9.5 and thought it was way too low.
The reason for my skepticism essentially comes down to the level of competition. The best team UW has played also lost by 49 to North Texas. Yes, UW has knocked down the bowling pins set up in their lane, but the pins are about to get a lot heavier. It starts on the offensive line. The Dawgs have improved massively on offense because the line has effectively zone blocked for Jonah Coleman to open up all kinds of options on both the ground and through the air. I don’t expect another 150 yards or 3 TDs for Coleman, but if he can even crack 4.5 yards per carry on solid volume, it will be a big indicator that Jedd Fisch’s offense can work against this level of competition.
Of course, even if the Dawgs move the ball consistently through the game, they still have to get stops. They haven’t done that very consistently through the season, even against lesser opposition. Even in Julian Sayin’s first career road start, the receiving pair of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate provide a pretty exceptional security blanket. Coming off a bye, the coaches had an extra week to get Sayin ready for the environment. If Tacario Davis can’t go and the Huskies have to rely on freshman Dylan Robinson to cover one of the star receivers, it creates even more risk. I can’t see UW forcing numerous three-and-outs by stonewalling the Buckeyes. For the Dawgs to win, it will take multiple turnovers and/or an abnormal number of OSU offensive penalties and negative plays.
The Dawgs being at home and fielding a better offense than expected makes this a more interesting game than I expected going into the season. Even adjusting for my own under-estimation, it seems like too many things need to go wrong for OSU for me to confidently pick the Dawgs.
Ohio State 41 – Washington 30