Last week was the first truly bad ATS picks week I have had this year. I went 5-1 SU and 1-5 ATS. I thought that there were likely to be some big underdogs covering the spreads, and there were, but I picked all the wrong ones. This week features more evenly-matched games, so we will hope for better results.
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
Rutgers @ Washington (-10.5), Friday Game
The Dawgs will play a non-traditional Big 10 opponent for the second week in a row, but Rutgers could hardly be any more different from Maryland on the field. The Terps were defined by an unheralded but excellent defense and an exciting, young QB. Rutgers has been known for its defense under Greg Schiano, but they have not played that way in 2025.
The Rutgers offense was able to grind the UW defense into dust with their ground game last year. They have had a more explosive passing attack this year. Athan Kaliakmanis, in his fourth year as a B1G starter after transferring from Minnesota, is averaging a career-best 8.8 yards per attempt. They feature three receivers averaging at least 14 yards per catch with 20 or more receptions already. They still run the ball well with Antwan Raymond. It adds up to a pretty good offense that ranks 32nd nationally in Expected Points Added.
On the other side, Rutgers has one of the worse defenses in the country. They rank 116th in defensive EPA and 123rd in success rate. They are especially bad against the pass and they have given up many long drives that end in points. You don’t need advanced stats to tell you that giving up 69 combined points to the poor Iowa and Minnesota offenses the last two games is less than optimal.
There are reasons for concern. The Huskies are playing their 3rd game in 13 days, all against teams coming off byes. No FBS team has had that scheduling challenge in the last two seasons. As long as the coaches can get the team to come out sharp, there are many more yards to be had through the air, especially on play action, than there have been against Ohio State or Maryland. I can always find reason to worry, but the underlying matchups favor UW.
Washington 37 – Rutgers 24
Ohio St @ Illinois (+14.5)
Home dog + steady QB + good defense is a recipe for a cover. The question is whether Illinois actually has a good defense. They were shredded by Indiana and looked fairly soft in a win over USC. The defense has relied on forcing turnovers, but Ohio St has been conservative offensively, sometimes to a fault. If they loosen the leash on Julian Sayin, they may be able to put this game away earlier. Ohio State’s defense is exceptional and the Illinois offense is more in the realm of “pretty good.” I keep going back to Ohio St’s conservative play-calling as the thing that can keep the game within 2 TDs. Fun fact- this game has a trophy on the line (the Illibuck Trophy), but the teams haven’t played since 2017.
Ohio St 31 – Illinois 17
Indiana @ Oregon (-7.5)
This is the most intriguing matchup in the country this week. Indiana has surged up the rankings with one dominant performance after another. Going into Autzen will be a different sort of challenge. Fernando Mendoza didn’t look like a star as a freshman at Cal, but he has evolved into an extremely efficient play-maker. I think this game will come down to whether Indiana can slow down Oregon’s excellent and balanced rushing attack. I suspect they will do enough to keep it close, but will need to win the turnover battle to pull out the game.
Oregon 31 – Indiana 27
Nebraska @ Maryland (+6.5)
When Nebraska lost to Michigan at home, it was easy to write them off as “same old Nebraska,” the team that could keep it close with anyone, but couldn’t win big games. The numbers under the hood are a bit more positive- 19th in SP+ and 20th in EPA rooted in a good passing game and overall balance. Maryland’s defense will not make it easy for Dylan Raiola, but I think they have enough to pull out a low-scoring road win.
Nebraska 23 – Maryland 21
Iowa @ Wisconsin (+3.5)
Will I make it 3/3 picking home dogs this week? If the formula is a good defense and steady QB, then Wisconsin is checking exactly zero of the boxes. You still have to ask if Iowa has the offensive firepower to take advantage of a pedestrian Badger defense. The Hawkeyes have only shown signs of life against the very poor Rutgers defense. This one looks like a rock fight to me. If anyone reaches 20, they win.
Iowa 17 – Wisconsin 14
Michigan @ USC (-1.5)
Like Nebraska, Michigan is a team whose advanced metrics are better than their overall ranking. Also like Nebraska, the big difference for Michigan is that a highly-rated young QB has elevated their passing attack from nonexistent to pretty good. After signs of defensive improvement under Danton Lynn, USC’s defense has given up a worrying 65 points to Illinois and Michigan Sate. Were those results a blip on the radar or a sign that the Trojan defense has the same frailties as the previous Lincoln Riley versions?
Michigan 30 – USC 28