I was tantalizingly close to a perfect week ATS last week. My two losses came via a backdoor cover by Michigan State on a TD with seven seconds to go and Northwestern covering by half of a point against Nebraska (seven point loss and a 7.5 point spread). Nonetheless, I’m back to .500 for the year and had my first perfect SU week since non-conference play, so let’s see if we can keep the momentum going.
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
Penn St @ Ohio St (-20.5)
This game was supposed to be Penn St’s big chance to break through against an B1G blue blood and assert itself as a real National Championship contender. Instead, they enter the game with zero Big 10 wins, an injured QB, and a fired coach. Ohio St has been good at getting early leads and forcing opponents to pass into their terrifying secondary. Penn St is not equipped to compete in that sort of game. They need to use their running backs to play a slow, low possession game. I don’t like their chances to do it.
Ohio St 38 – Penn St 14
Rutgers @ Illinois (-13.5)
No matter who wins, UW’s strength of schedule stays the same. The Dawgs should probably cheer for Illinois to win out because a win over a nine-win team looks better than a bunch of wins over teams hovering around .500. The game should be pretty high scoring. As the Huskies have seen, neither team defends the pass very well and both QBs are solid. In making this pick, I ask myself whether the Illinois defense can limit Athan Kaliakmanis to few enough points to realistically win by two full TDs. I am skeptical.
Illinois 40 – Rutgers 30
Indiana @ Maryland (+21.5)
Jared Jeffries! Juan Dixon! It’s the 2002 NCAA Basketball Championship Game! As great as the The Hoosiers have been, it seems like Vegas is treating the Terps as a bad team when they are, in fact, an ok team. They have their flaws, but they generally defend well (only Nebraska has scored more than 24 against them), they’re at home, and they’re coming off a bye. The last time Indiana played on the road against a good defense, they beat Iowa by five. I think Iowa defends better than Maryland, but the line seems too big.
Indiana 33 – Maryland 14
Michigan St @ Minnesota (-5.5)
Minnesota belongs squarely in the B1G’s middle class. Michigan St would like to get to that level, but at 0-5 in conference, it has been a struggle. The schedule has been tough- UCLA is the only team they probably should have beaten-, and they have hung around with teams like MIchigan and Nebraska. Meanwhile, the Gophers are coming off their worst showing of the year with a non-competitive 41-3 drubbing at rival Iowa. The Gopher defense has been solid as long as the offense hasn’t put it in a big hole. The Spartan defense had trouble getting off the field, so it sets up well to be a bounce-back game for Drake Lindsey. I think the line is in about the right place. These teams are closer in quality than the records indicate. But Minnesota is a bit better on defense and has home field advantage.
Minnesota 28 – Michigan State 21
Purdue @ Michigan (-21.5)
The Boilermakers have been less embarrassing this year. They stayed within a score of Rutgers and Minnesota. Alas, they’re still winless in the Big 10 going back to 2023. Michigan are coming off another game where their offense was good enough to win comfortably, but not good enough to run away with the game. The only game they have won by at least 21.5 points this year was against Central Michigan. Of course, Purdue might be the next worst team on the schedule so far. I’m not entirely sold that Michigan is as good as the sum of its parts, but I think they will sit on Purdue and grind out enough points to cover.
Michigan 30 – Purdue 7
USC @ Nebraska (-6.5)
There is a cluster of Big 10 teams who have consistently been rated close to each other in the polls and computer rankings, including USC, Nebraska, Michigan, Illinois, and Washington. These teams have pretty consistently rated between 15-30 in the country in most all-in metrics. When these teams have played each other, the home teams have generally done well (see Washington @ MIchigan and hosting Illinois). With that in mind, it’s a bit surprising to see USC as a big favorite against another team in this cohort with a long road trip. Nebraska is the more balanced team, but they don’t do anything as well as USC passes the ball. I think that advantage will be enough for the Trojans to win, though their defense is suspect enough that it should be close.
USC 30 – Nebraska 27