Michigan survived a scare (due to a lot of turnovers on their part). Penn State got their first win since before Franklin left. USC had to come from behind to beat Iowa. The rest of the Big Ten games were the one-sided games that were expected.
Polls
There was plenty of shakeups in CFP rankings with two top-10 teams losing, plus 5 other top-25 teams losing, 4 to unranked teams. Four teams dropped out of the CFP this week. It seems that as soon as you think you know the teams, you will get surprised. That includes the Big Ten this season, although there was only that one surprise game last weekend.
There are still 6 Big Ten teams are ranked in the CFP rankings including 3 are in the top 10. One Big Ten team dropped out (Iowa) while another moved into the rankings (Illinois)
- Ohio State: 1
- Indiana: 2
- Oregon: 7
- USC: 15
- Michigan: 18
- Illinois: 21
The full list of rankings can be found here: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx
Here are the ranks in the other two major polls. (AP/Coaches)
- Ohio State (2/2)
- Indiana (5/5)
- Oregon (6/5)
- USC (16/16)
- Michigan (18/17)
Illinois, Iowa, and Washington all received votes in both the AP and the Coaches polls. Illinois (AP: 27, Coaches: 28). Iowa (AP: 31, Coaches: 30). Washington (AP: 36, Coaches: 29).
Composite Ranking
This week the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 78 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the CFP, and the AP and Coaches polls. The following “Cool Chart” shows the changes since week 7 for the teams in the Big Ten.
Indiana and Ohio State swapped the first and second spots. Washington and Iowa swapped spots. Penn State moved up after their win. The rest of the Big Ten changed little, or went down slightly.
Other Rankings
The table below lists the rankings for each of the Big Ten teams in 8 different stats rankings: SP+, FEI, ESPN’s FPI, Sagarin, CBS Sports, Kelly Ford (KFord), and SRS.
| School | Composite | SP+ | FPI | FEI | Sagarin | CBS | KFord | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 18 | 23 | 27 | 21 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 16 |
| Indiana | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Iowa | 26 | 15 | 21 | 16 | 17 | 33 | 18 | 21 |
| Maryland | 78 | 60 | 65 | 56 | 75 | 74 | 65 | 67 |
| Michigan | 16 | 22 | 18 | 23 | 24 | 17 | 20 | 17 |
| Michigan State | 92 | 81 | 70 | 81 | 68 | 85 | 67 | 91 |
| Minnesota | 57 | 65 | 63 | 66 | 57 | 46 | 63 | 66 |
| Nebraska | 34 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 37 | 34 | 28 | 42 |
| Northwestern | 61 | 66 | 56 | 52 | 61 | 61 | 55 | 60 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oregon | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| Penn State | 48 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 59 | 19 | 43 |
| Purdue | 102 | 96 | 81 | 77 | 93 | 98 | 77 | 88 |
| Rutgers | 65 | 61 | 60 | 68 | 64 | 63 | 59 | 64 |
| UCLA | 83 | 85 | 71 | 69 | 67 | 66 | 68 | 73 |
| USC | 13 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 11 |
| Washington | 22 | 20 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 29 | 22 | 22 |
| Wisconsin | 74 | 90 | 62 | 63 | 55 | 86 | 60 | 77 |
Purdue is down in all of the rankings; I guess losing by 36 will do that. Washington was up in all of them. Minnesota and Michigan State are down in most of the rankings while Penn State is up in most-including up by 10 in CBS Sports and SRS. There is very little change for most of the rest of the teams.
Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, and Maryland have the most variability; all vary by 20 or more places. Penn State is up to #15 in Sagarin’s rating, but still at almost 60 in the CBS Sports ranking. Seven of the other Big Ten teams vary by 10 or fewer spots-including Washington.
F+
Here’s where the Big Ten teams rank in the F+ rankings, including the rankings for the offenses, defenses, and special teams.
| Team | Rank | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 22 | 15 | 53 | 9 |
| Indiana | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| Iowa | 17 | 52 | 6 | 8 |
| Maryland | 57 | 95 | 29 | 28 |
| Michigan | 23 | 34 | 14 | 103 |
| Michigan State | 80 | 77 | 84 | 67 |
| Minnesota | 68 | 78 | 48 | 96 |
| Nebraska | 30 | 46 | 39 | 15 |
| Northwestern | 59 | 82 | 44 | 16 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 6 | 1 | 25 |
| Oregon | 3 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| Penn State | 21 | 29 | 27 | 4 |
| Purdue | 84 | 90 | 81 | 30 |
| Rutgers | 67 | 23 | 117 | 78 |
| UCLA | 75 | 68 | 93 | 24 |
| USC | 13 | 1 | 46 | 32 |
| Washington | 19 | 17 | 28 | 100 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 112 | 42 | 94 |
The Big Ten has 9 of the top-25 teams. They have 7 of the top-25 offenses, 5 of the top-25 defenses, and 8 of the top-25 special teams.
Washington is one of 5 teams that have improved their overall F+ ranking by more than 10 places since the preseason; they are up 18 places. The others are Northwestern (+26), Purdue (+20), Indiana (+17), and Illinois (+11). Northwestern’s offense is up 41 places since the preseason while Wisconsin’s offense is down 53 places. Both Rutgers’ and UCLA’s defenses are down more than 50 places since the preseason. Despite dropping 10 places after their loss to Washington, Purdue’s defense is up 24 places since the preseason.
Week 13 Games
There are 8 Big Ten conference games this week. Indiana and Purdue are off ahead of their rivalry game the last weekend of the regular season.
| Visitor | ESPN FPI | Massey | KFord | SP+ | Home | ESPN FPI | Massey | KFord | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | 29.8% | 16% | 27% | 33% | Penn State | 70.2% | 84% | 73% | 67% |
| Minnesota | 35.1% | 46% | 41% | 46% | Northwestern | 64.9% | 54% | 59% | 54% |
| Washington | 79.3% | 77% | 84% | 87% | UCLA | 20.7% | 23% | 16% | 13% |
| USC | 28.0% | 24% | 25% | 25% | Oregon | 72.0% | 76% | 75% | 75% |
| Rutgers | 3.1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | Ohio State | 96.9% | 99% | 98% | 98% |
| Michigan State | 10.4% | 5% | 9% | 8% | Iowa | 89.6% | 95% | 91% | 92% |
| Michigan | 81.9% | 88% | 83% | 72% | Maryland | 18.1% | 12% | 17% | 28% |
| Illinois | 71.8% | 64% | 75% | 85% | Wisconsin | 28.2% | 36% | 25% | 15% |
The big game this week is obviously USC at Oregon. It has implications for both the Big Ten Championship game as well as the CFP.
Most of the games have a clear favorite-with the exception of the Minnesota-Northwestern game.
Final Notes
Northwestern can become the 11th Big Ten team to be bowl eligible if they win this weekend. If they don’t win this weekend, however, it may be tough since their final game is at Illinois. Penn State showed that they still have a decent team. They can still become bowl-eligible since they favored at home this weekend and then travel to play Rutgers team in their final regular season game. And that Penn State-Rutgers game may be determine whether Rutgers makes a bowl since they need one more win and it doesn’t look like they’ll get it against Ohio State this weekend. Maryland is the only other Big Ten team that could become bowl-eligible, but it would mean upsetting Michigan this weekend and then winning at Michigan State in the final weekend.
There are 5 teams that still have a shot at being in the Big Ten Championship game: Indiana, Ohio State, USC, Oregon, and Michigan. Indiana is off this week and only has to play Purdue in their final game; it would be a major upset if they weren’t one of the teams in the Big Ten Championship game. Either USC or Oregon will likely be eliminated this weekend, and the final spot will likely be decided by the Ohio State-Michigan game on the final weekend of the regular season.
Now that Illinois is in the top-25, Washington is now one of 28 teams that have a win over a current top-25 team. Oregon, Georgia Tech, Michigan, Virginia, Missouri, and Tulane are top-25 teams that do not have a win over a top-25 team. Oregon and Missouri can change that with wins this weekend. Georgia Tech and Michigan could change that the final weekend. Virginia may not be able to claim a top-25 win unless they make it to the ACC Championship game and win that game.
For Husky fans, UW has scored at least 38 points against every defense that it has faced this year not in the top 50. (UCLA’s defense is #93. Only Rutgers has a worse defense in the Big Ten.) UW’s defense hasn’t given up more than 24 points to any team, including 3 of the top-25 offenses. (UCLA’s offense is #68.) And while Washington has struggled offensively in Big Ten road games, the game this weekend is in the Pacific Time Zone where UW is averaging almost 39 points per game (including the one road game at WSU).