There were two ranked-vs-ranked matchups in the Big Ten last weekend, both of which went down to the wire-one into OT and the other to the final seconds. And we now have clarity at the bottom of the Big Ten after the bottom two teams played.
Polls
The Big Ten now has 6 teams ranked in both the Coaches Poll and in the AP Poll. USC dropped out after their last-second loss at Illinois. Here are Big Ten teams in the polls (AP/Coaches):
- Ohio State (1/1)
- Oregon (2/2) Up 4 in the AP and 3 in the Coaches
- Penn State (7/6) Down 4 in the AP and down 4 in the Coaches
- Indiana (8/9) Up 3 in the AP and up 3 in the Coaches
- Michigan (20/20) Down 1 in the AP and down 2 in the Coaches
- Illinois (22/22) Up 1 in the AP and up 1 in the Coaches
Michigan’s move down is a little surprising since they didn’t play; plus they changed places with Missouri whose win was against Massachusetts. Otherwise the changes in the rankings make sense given the games last weekend.
In addition, there are 4 other teams getting votes in the polls. USC is #31 in both polls. Maryland is getting votes in both polls; #33 in the AP and #30 in the Coaches. Washington is still getting votes in the Coaches poll; they are #37. And Nebraska is also getting votes int Coaches poll; they are #40.
Composite Ranking
The Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 68 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The following ‘Cool Chart’ shows the changes since the preseason.
You should notice some differences at the top of the conference between these rankings and the polls. Indiana is higher here. USC is higher, too. Nebraska and Washington are higher here as well. Penn State is much lower in this ranking; and Maryland is a little lower, too. The large drops by USC and Penn State seem like they could be overreactions to their losses given how close both of their games were.
Michigan and Michigan State rose a bit even though they didn’t play. And Wisconsin dropped some even though they didn’t play, either.
UCLA is clearly at the bottom of the Big Ten.
Other Rankings
There are other rankings of all FBS teams. Here is a table comparing the Massey Composite with some of the more popular rankings. (Note that some of these other rankings are included in the Massey Composite, but not all of them.) This should provide an image of how consistent the rankings are.
| School | Massey Comp. | SP+ | FPI | FEI | Sagarin | CBS | KFord |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 19 | 25 | 30 | 32 | 27 | 23 | 31 |
| Indiana | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 5 |
| Iowa | 40 | 34 | 32 | 25 | 32 | 49 | 30 |
| Maryland | 39 | 32 | 47 | 41 | 55 | 35 | 51 |
| Michigan | 10 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 20 | 12 |
| Michigan State | 52 | 60 | 63 | 68 | 54 | 56 | 65 |
| Minnesota | 49 | 45 | 59 | 44 | 47 | 44 | 54 |
| Nebraska | 28 | 23 | 21 | 27 | 29 | 30 | 20 |
| Northwestern | 84 | 80 | 78 | 87 | 89 | 81 | 76 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oregon | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Penn State | 23 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 9 |
| Purdue | 79 | 84 | 74 | 77 | 85 | 71 | 78 |
| Rutgers | 60 | 48 | 46 | 47 | 60 | 57 | 48 |
| UCLA | 114 | 100 | 90 | 82 | 96 | 90 | 87 |
| USC | 20 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 16 |
| Washington | 26 | 29 | 26 | 28 | 22 | 28 | 25 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 61 | 57 | 54 | 64 | 70 | 58 |
There is general agreement in these rankings. There are obviously differences, but you don’t see a team in the top-25 in one of these rankings be below 50 in a different ranking. There are, however, some differences to highlight.
UCLA has the greatest range: 82 for a high and 114 for a low. It is not uncommon to see a large range for teams in the bottom half of the rankings-especially this early in the season. And it’s also not surprising that there are different takes on UCLA given the changes that are going on in their program (just changed offensive coordinators). Whether they are #82 or #114, however, they are clearly below every other team in the Big Ten.
Next is Penn State. In most cases they are a top-10 team, but a couple of rankings have them at #11 and the Massey Composite has them at #23. They are that low in the Composite because seven of the (68) rankings in the Composite have them ranked below 50. Those rankings seem hard to defend, which is why looking at multiple rankings gives a better idea of where teams should be ranked.
Two other teams (besides UCLA) vary by more than 20 places: Iowa and Maryland. Iowa ranges from a top 25 team (#25 in FEI) to #49 (CBS Sports). Of more interest to Husky fans is Maryland. Are they only a few places below UW, as in SP+? Or are they quite a bit below UW, as in Sagarin? We should find out on Saturday.
Four of the teams vary by less than 10 places. That includes the top 3 teams as well as Washington.
F+ Ratings
The F+ Ratings (and rankings) are a combination of the FEI Rating and the SP+ Rating. It includes an overall rating along with separate ratings for offense, defense, and special teams.
| School | F+ | Off | Def | ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 29 | 18 | 50 | 15 |
| Indiana | 5 | 11 | 6 | 4 |
| Iowa | 28 | 65 | 12 | 6 |
| Maryland | 35 | 64 | 15 | 49 |
| Michigan | 15 | 24 | 8 | 39 |
| Michigan State | 63 | 59 | 65 | 16 |
| Minnesota | 40 | 62 | 26 | 85 |
| Nebraska | 24 | 40 | 19 | 56 |
| Northwestern | 83 | 118 | 46 | 92 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 4 | 1 | 34 |
| Oregon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 44 |
| Penn State | 3 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| Purdue | 79 | 72 | 99 | 48 |
| Rutgers | 46 | 13 | 95 | 71 |
| UCLA | 91 | 90 | 112 | 17 |
| USC | 16 | 2 | 55 | 50 |
| Washington | 27 | 17 | 43 | 91 |
| Wisconsin | 60 | 86 | 32 | 67 |
Seven Big Ten teams are in the top 25 overall. Washington had been in the top 25 but dropped to #27. UCLA had the biggest overall change, dropping 10 places. Illinois had the biggest move up-6 places.
Nine of the top 25 offenses are in the Big Ten. Illinois moved into the top 25 (from #30). Despite only scoring 6 last weekend, UW’s offense remains at #17 despite the loss to Ohio State. UCLA’s offense dropped the most (down 8 places).
The Big Ten has 5 of the top 10 defenses and 8 of the top 25 defenses. UW just played the #1 defense and still must play the #5 (Oregon) and #8 (Michigan) defenses this season.
Indiana and Penn State are the only Big Ten teams that are in the top 25 in all 3 phases. Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue are not in the top 25 in any of the 3 phases.
Offensive Success
Last week several of the offenses in the Big Ten were among the top in all of college football. Several of those offenses struggled last weekend as they played some very good defenses; that includes Washington, Indiana, Oregon, and Penn State.
- Washington was #1 in Available Yards at 84.5%. They are now #5 at 69.5%.
- Oregon was #2 in Available Yards at 82.3%. They are now #3 at 72.8%.
- Indiana was #5 in Available Yards at 75.6%. They are now #8 at 66.5%.
- Penn State was #5 in Drive Success at 72.2%. They are now #11 at 61.5%.
Some changes were expected since these teams played relatively easy schedules prior to last weekend, and then ended up playing what is currently 4 of the top 8 defenses in the country (according to FEI). USC was able to maintain their offensive success despite their loss. But that will be challenged in their next two games as they face the #18 (Michigan) and #10 (Notre Dame) defenses (after a bye this weekend).
Win Total Projections
Here are the updated win total projections from ESPN’s FPI and Kelley Ford.
| School | ESPN FPI | Kelley Ford |
|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| Indiana | 10.6 | 10.5 |
| Iowa | 6.2 | 6.4 |
| Maryland | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| Michigan | 9.1 | 8.9 |
| Michigan State | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Minnesota | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| Nebraska | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| Northwestern | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Ohio State | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| Oregon | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| Penn State | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Purdue | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Rutgers | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| UCLA | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| USC | 8.6 | 8.2 |
| Washington | 7.7 | 8.2 |
| Wisconsin | 3.9 | 3.6 |
Just like last week, there is very little difference between the two sites. One of the biggest differences is with UW; Kelley Ford has UW with an extra 0.5 wins (so, more likely over 8 wins). Kelley Ford has Oregon with 0.5 wins less than ESPN’s FPI. One of the differences is that Kelley Ford has UW with a slightly better chance of beating Oregon in the final game (28% vs 20.1%).
Week 6 Games
All of the games this week in the Big Ten are conference games. Here’s a look at win projections for the week 6 games in the Big Ten.
| Visitor | ESPN FPI | Massey | KFord | SP+ | Home | ESPN FPI | Massey | KFord | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 93.0% | 94% | 96% | 98.0% | UCLA | 7.0% | 6% | 4% | 2% |
| Wisconsin | 10.9% | 8% | 12% | 12.0% | Michigan | 89.1% | 92% | 88% | 88% |
| Washington | 51.5% | 58% | 66% | 46.0% | Maryland | 48.5% | 42% | 34% | 54% |
| UL Monroe | 17.8% | 5% | 20% | 25.0% | Northwestern | 82.2% | 95% | 80% | 75% |
| Minnesota | 5.3% | 1% | 4% | 10.0% | Ohio State | 94.7% | 99% | 96% | 90% |
| Michigan State | 14.0% | 19% | 15% | 19.0% | Nebraska | 86.0% | 81% | 85% | 81% |
| Illinois | 74.7% | 70% | 84% | 85.0% | Purdue | 25.3% | 30% | 16% | 15% |
There is a lot of consistency in these games-with the notable exception of the UW-Maryland game. Three places have UW as the favorite, while SP+ has Maryland as the favorite. Maryland is one of the most improved teams since last season. (Both Maryland and Purdue are up 41 places in the Massey Composite since the end of last season.) UW is also improved since last season, but the game is in Maryland-which means a long road game across the country for UW and there is a possibility of several starters being out for the game.
According to ESPN’s FPI and Kelley Ford, Purdue, UCLA, and Wisconsin are underdogs in all of their remaining games. Ohio State and Oregon are favored in all of their remaining games.
Final Notes
Here’s a look at how the projections have worked out for those 4 sites so far this season in the (65) Big Ten games.
- In 12 of the Big Ten games so far this season, the team that ESPN’s FPI had as having the higher win percentage (the favorite) lost the game (82% accuracy). Most of the ones that they missed were expected to be close; all but three were when the favored team had less than a 60% win percentage. (Those three games were UCLA’s loss to New Mexico, Maryland’s win over Wisconsin, and USC’s loss to Illinois.)
- Massey has had better overall results (86% accuracy). But in 6 of the 9 games that their favorite didn’t win, the winner had greater than a 60% win percentage. So, you can’t trust their confidence as much.
- Kelley Ford has had the best results of the sites so far (91% accuracy). Their favorite did not win in just 4 of the games; but in each of those games, the team that lost had a 60% or greater win percentage. They did also have two games that they had no favorite (50% win percentage for both teams: Iowa-Rutgers and Oregon-Penn State, which obviously went to overtime).
- SP+ has had results similar to Kelley Ford (91% accuracy). Their favorite did not win in 6 games. (Iowa-Rutgers was 50-50, but they did specify that Rutgers would win.) In only two of those games did the team that was favored have a greater than 60% win percentage.
There were 3 games which all 4 sites missed. And of those games, one of those was UCLA’s loss to New Mexico. Two of the other 3 were games where the team with the higher win percentage had to travel a long distance (Minnesota at California and USC at Illinois). That doesn’t bode well for UW’s long trip to Maryland this weekend.
Unlike the previous weeks, there is very little change in the win projections for the remaining games this (regular) season. Some win percentages did change, but there were only two changes over 10 points: USC from 46% to 32.5% (-13.5) at Notre Dame and Illinois from 27.5% to 38.3% (+10.8) at Washington. There were no changes of which team is favored. That would indicate that there is agreement about where each of the teams is ranked. But, as we all know, college football can have surprises and upsets. So expect that there will be changes in the coming weeks.
UW has 8 more conference games. Four of those games are against 4 of the bottom 5 teams in the conference. There are 3 games against teams ranked above them (Oregon, Michigan, and Illinois). Currently UW is in the top half of the conference; a win this weekend against (#10 in the Big Ten) Maryland should keep them there (for now).