It was a weekend with a few upsets across college football, including a HUGE one in the Big Ten. As a result, there are some major changes in the rankings this week.
Polls
There are now just 5 Big Ten teams ranked in the AP Poll after Penn State dropped out. Penn State is still in the Coaches poll, so there are 6 Big Ten teams in that poll. Here are the teams and their current ranks (AP/Coaches):
- Ohio State (1/1) Unchanged
- Oregon (3/2) Down 1 in the AP
- Indiana (7/7) Up 1 in the AP and 2 in the Coaches
- Michigan (15/15) Up 5 in both the AP and the Coaches
- Illinois (23/23) Up 1 in the AP and 2 in the Coaches
- Penn State (Unranked/22) Down 16 in the Coaches
Penn State still got votes in the AP, but they are now #28, which is a drop of 21 places. Washington is finally getting votes in the AP; they are #35 (tied with Mississippi State). Nebraska and USC are the other Big Ten teams getting votes in the AP; they are #30 and #31 (respectively). Washington (#32), USC (#33), Nebraska (#35), and Iowa (#42) are getting votes in the Coaches poll.
Texas is the other team that had a big drop in the rankings. They also dropped out of the AP poll after their loss to Florida. Texas is #19 in the Coaches poll. Iowa State was upset by Cincinnati which dropped them, but they are still ranked in both polls.
Composite Ranking
The Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 67 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The following “Cool Chart” shows the changes since the preseason.
Obviously there is a big drop for Penn State and a corresponding big jump for UCLA.
There was a surprising jump by Northwestern. They did have a big win last weekend, but it was over UL Monroe, a team that they were a heavy favorite to beat going into the game. But their offensive ‘explosion’ (42 points) must have impressed enough to move them up.
Note that Iowa, Oregon, and Rutgers all dropped slightly despite not playing last weekend. USC rose slightly despite not playing.
It is looking like there is some separation between the top 8 teams and the remaining teams. Maryland, Penn State, and Iowa all have a chance, given their schedules, to move up into the top group, but obviously need some wins to do that.
Other Rankings
Here is a comparison of the Composite ranking with some other popular rankings of all FBS teams. (Sagarin includes all D1 teams, so FCS teams are included).
| School | Massey Composite | SP+ | FPI | FEI | Sagarin | CBS | KFord |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 14 | 29 | 28 | 32 | 25 | 20 | 28 |
| Indiana | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 5 |
| Iowa | 42 | 38 | 35 | 25 | 37 | 47 | 31 |
| Maryland | 44 | 34 | 53 | 42 | 53 | 43 | 53 |
| Michigan | 13 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| Michigan State | 59 | 64 | 61 | 69 | 54 | 62 | 65 |
| Minnesota | 60 | 58 | 66 | 51 | 56 | 52 | 64 |
| Nebraska | 22 | 19 | 22 | 24 | 30 | 30 | 22 |
| Northwestern | 67 | 71 | 67 | 76 | 73 | 77 | 66 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oregon | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Penn State | 48 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 33 | 16 |
| Purdue | 78 | 80 | 70 | 75 | 92 | 74 | 82 |
| Rutgers | 63 | 50 | 51 | 49 | 59 | 59 | 51 |
| UCLA | 94 | 86 | 78 | 74 | 76 | 96 | 71 |
| USC | 17 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 15 |
| Washington | 21 | 23 | 27 | 28 | 22 | 31 | 26 |
| Wisconsin | 71 | 66 | 54 | 58 | 60 | 73 | 54 |
Penn State has the largest variance, going from as high as #12 (Sagarin) to a low of #48 (Massey Composite). That’s what happens when a playoff-caliber team (or so many thought) loses to a previously winless team. Where do you put them? Lots of different ideas.
UCLA has the next-largest variance-from #71 to #96. With UCLA there are 4 games which show that they are bad and just one that they could be good, so it is easier to keep them low for now.
Iowa and Purdue are the other teams that vary by more than 20 places. Washington is one of 5 teams that vary by 10 or less.
F+ Ratings
The F+ Ratings (and rankings) are a combination of the FEI Rating and the SP+ Rating. It includes an overall rating along with separate ratings for offense, defense, and special teams.
| School | F+ (Overall) | F+ Off | F+ Def | F+ ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 28 | 18 | 56 | 2 |
| Indiana | 5 | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Iowa | 29 | 66 | 14 | 3 |
| Maryland | 37 | 67 | 15 | 48 |
| Michigan | 13 | 24 | 11 | 34 |
| Michigan State | 66 | 59 | 64 | 51 |
| Minnesota | 56 | 71 | 35 | 91 |
| Nebraska | 21 | 38 | 17 | 41 |
| Northwestern | 72 | 98 | 48 | 74 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 4 | 1 | 50 |
| Oregon | 2 | 1 | 4 | 47 |
| Penn State | 16 | 23 | 19 | 11 |
| Purdue | 78 | 60 | 94 | 69 |
| Rutgers | 49 | 13 | 95 | 72 |
| UCLA | 80 | 65 | 106 | 23 |
| USC | 14 | 2 | 57 | 53 |
| Washington | 25 | 16 | 39 | 85 |
| Wisconsin | 63 | 86 | 38 | 63 |
Penn State (-13) and Minnesota (-16) were the two teams that dropped more than 4 places in the overall rankings. Penn State’s defense is the only one that dropped by more than 10 places. Northwestern, Purdue, and UCLA all had improvements of more than 10 places by their offenses.
Eight Big Ten teams are in the top-25 in the overall rankings; UW snuck back in by moving up to #25. Nine of the top 25 offenses are in the Big Ten including 3 of the top 5 (Oregon, USC, and Ohio State).
Indiana and Penn State are in the top-25 in all 3 areas while Northwestern the only Big Ten team that isn’t in the top-25 in any of the areas.
Win Total Projections
Here are the updated win total projections from ESPN’s FPI and Kelley Ford.
| School | ESPN FPI | Kelley Ford |
|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| Indiana | 10.7 | 10.6 |
| Iowa | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| Maryland | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Michigan | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| Michigan State | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| Minnesota | 5.6 | 5.9 |
| Nebraska | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| Northwestern | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Ohio State | 11.5 | 11.3 |
| Oregon | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| Penn State | 7.2 | 7.3 |
| Purdue | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| Rutgers | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| UCLA | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| USC | 8.6 | 8.2 |
| Washington | 8.1 | 8.3 |
| Wisconsin | 3.9 | 3.7 |
Again this week there is consistency between the sites as to the wins for all of the teams.
Penn State’s win total dropped from 8.7 last week; that is down 1.5 on ESPN’s FPI and down 1.4 on Kelley Ford. UCLA’s win total improved by 1.3 wins on both sites.
Maryland and Minnesota both had their win totals drop. Maryland had been at 7.2 (ESPN’s FPI) and 7.0 (Kelley Ford); now they are at 6.5 on both sites. Minnesota dropped by 0.5 on ESPN’s FPI and 0.4 on Kelley Ford. Two of Minnesota’s games have flipped; they are now underdogs at Northwestern and at home against Wisconsin.
Northwestern was the other team that improved their win total by more than 0.5 wins. They are up 0.6 on ESPN’s FPI and 0.7 on Kelley Ford.
Week 7 Games
This week all of the Big Ten teams are playing conference games. The only other weekend this season when that is the case is the final weekend; at least one team is off each of the other weekends between them. Here’s a look at win projections for the week 7 games in the Big Ten.
| Visitor | ESPN FPI | Massey | Kford | SP+ | Home | ESPN FPI | Massey | Kford | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers | 24.2% | 26% | 23% | 23% | Washington | 75.8% | 74% | 77% | 77% |
| UCLA | 23.5% | 47% | 34% | 23% | Michigan State | 76.5% | 53% | 66% | 77% |
| Purdue | 36.0% | 23% | 26% | 26% | Minnesota | 64.0% | 77% | 74% | 74% |
| Ohio State | 82.3% | 93% | 84% | 81% | Illinois | 17.7% | 7% | 16% | 19% |
| Northwestern | 9.8% | 2% | 9% | 9% | Penn State | 90.2% | 98% | 91% | 91% |
| Nebraska | 66.7% | 56% | 72% | 58% | Maryland | 33.3% | 44% | 28% | 42% |
| Michigan | 31.5% | 49% | 42% | 43% | USC | 68.5% | 51% | 58% | 57% |
| Iowa | 62.6% | 64% | 65% | 65% | Wisconsin | 37.4% | 36% | 35% | 35% |
| Indiana | 30.5% | 32% | 33% | 35% | Oregon | 69.5% | 68% | 67% | 65% |
There’s a clear favorite in each game, although the win percentages vary a lot for Nebraska. There is also a slight outlier in the win percentage for Michigan State-UCLA (Massey has Michigan State at just 53%) and for USC-Michigan (ESPN FPI has USC at 68.5%).
Some people may scoff at these win projections-especially given the upset that happened last weekend. Upsets do happen, but they are rare. That’s why they are win percentages. In games where a team has a 90+% win percentage, they will almost always win (but not every time). There have been about 40 games in the Big Ten so far this season where one team had a 90+% win percentage; the UCLA-Penn State game was the only one where the team with the 90+% win percentage did not win. And there have only been two cases so far where a team with a 80+% win percentage lost. Coincidently, that was when UCLA lost to New Mexico.
Final Notes
The big questions now are about Penn State and UCLA. Was the win by UCLA just a fluke? Was Penn State just ‘hung over’ after their loss at home plus the travel? Or is Penn State just not as good as was thought before the season started? And did UCLA find some changes that will give them momentum for the rest of the season? We may not get answers with this weekend’s games, but it will be something to watch this weekend and in the next few weeks.
And then we have 3 big games this weekend. There is a game between two top-10 teams: Indiana at Oregon. There is another game between ranked teams: Ohio State at Illinois. And then there is a game between a ranked team and a team getting votes: Michigan at USC. All three games could really shake up the rankings next week.
Washington is the favorite in 5 of their remaining 7 games. Although, there is reason to be skeptical in several of those games. Can they keep up the momentum from the 4th quarter in last weekend’s game-with the travel and a short week-and beat a decent Rutgers team? UW is favored in their games against Illinois and Wisconsin, but with less than a 60% win percentage in each. And are Purdue and UCLA going to be a tougher matchups now than was thought a week or two ago?