Since there was only one game last weekend in the Big Ten, the rankings of the Big Ten teams did not change much. The only changes in the CFP were that Indiana and Ohio State switched spots and Michigan move up a spot (since Virginia dropped after their loss to Duke in the ACC Championship game). Here are the final CFP rankings for the Big Ten teams.
- Indiana: 1
- Ohio State: 2
- Oregon: 5
- USC: 16
- Michigan: 18
- Iowa: 23
And here are the rankings in the other two major polls (AP/Coaches):
- Indiana (1/1)
- Ohio State (3/3)
- Oregon (5/5)
- USC (16/16)
- Michigan (18/17)
The one major difference is that Iowa is ranked in the CFP, but not the other two polls. Iowa is getting votes in the other polls; they are #27 in the AP and #26 in the Coaches poll. Washington and Illinois are getting votes in both of the other polls; Washington is #38 in the AP and #31 in the Coaches while Illinois is #41 in the AP and #32 in the Coaches poll. Boise State is tied with Illinois in the Coaches poll and #31 in the AP poll.
Composite Ranking
This week the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 81 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the CFP, and the AP and Coaches polls. The following “Cool Chart” shows the changes since the preseason for the teams in the Big Ten.
As you can see, there was very little change. One change was obviously the switch between Indiana and Ohio State at the top. Also, surprisingly Minnesota moved up above Northwestern despite neither team playing last weekend.
SRS
The Simple Rating System (SRS) is another way to rank teams. It uses point differential (with some limits) and strength of schedule. Here is where the Big Ten teams rank among all FBS teams.
- Ohio State: 2
- Indiana: 3
- Oregon: 6
- USC: 12
- Iowa: 16
- Michigan: 20
- Washington: 21
- Illinois: 23
- Penn State: 32
- Northwestern: 56
- Nebraska: 62
- Minnesota: 64
- Rutgers: 66
- Wisconsin: 67
- Maryland: 79
- UCLA: 80
- Michigan State: 82
- Purdue: 89
There is not a lot of difference between the SRS rankings and the Composite Rankings. One exception is Nebraska which is 13 places higher in the Composite ranking than the SRS ranking. Maryland is 8 places higher in SRS; Purdue is 9 places higher. Minnesota is 8 places lower. The rest of the teams are within 5 places different between the two rankings.
UW’s next opponent, Boise State, is #47-which is a little lower than they are in the Composite (#42).
Bowl Matchups
Twelve Big Ten teams will be playing more games this season, obviously starting with UW’s matchup with Boise State on Saturday. Here’s a look at how some of the advanced stats compare the teams.
| Big Ten | ESPN FPI | FEI | SP+ | Opponent | ESPN FPI | FEI | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | 22 | 16 | 16 | Boise State | 48 | 55 | 50 |
| Oregon | 4 | 3 | 4 | James Madison | 28 | 35 | 24 |
| Northwestern | 59 | 50 | 64 | Central Michigan | 106 | 100 | 90 |
| Minnesota | 63 | 66 | 71 | New Mexico | 75 | 68 | 65 |
| Penn State | 17 | 20 | 18 | Clemson | 30 | 39 | 32 |
| Illinois | 31 | 25 | 30 | Tennessee | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| USC | 11 | 12 | 15 | TCU | 35 | 36 | 39 |
| Iowa | 20 | 17 | 14 | Vanderbilt | 14 | 8 | 11 |
| Michigan | 19 | 21 | 27 | Texas | 13 | 18 | 22 |
| Nebraska | 44 | 44 | 46 | Utah | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 2 | 1 | Miami or Texas A&M | 7 or 10 | 9 or 11 | 9 or 8 |
| Indiana | 1 | 1 | 2 | Alabama or Oklahoma | 8 or 15 | 10 or 13 | 13 or 12 |
There is general agreement in the rankings for each of the Big Ten teams and their opponents (and potential opponents). The only Big Ten team that varies by more than 8 places is Northwestern (50-64). James Madison (24-35), Central Michigan (90-106), and New Mexico (65-75) are the opponents that vary by 10 or more places.
Obviously Central Michigan stands out among the opponents. Despite having a record of 7-5, they are clearly the lowest ranked team in these bowl games.
LA Bowl
As you can see from the table above, UW is ranked higher than Boise State in all 3 of those advanced stat rankings.
Furthermore, SP+ ranks UW’s offense at #29 compared to Boise State’s defense at #49; and on the other side, UW’s defense is ranked #14 compared to Boise State’s offense at #50. SP+ has UW’s special teams at #100, but they have Boise State’s at #101. SP+ gives UW a 74% chance of winning.
Massey gives UW a 81% chance of winning.
This matchup from CFB Graphs has UW with a 57% chance of winning.
Final Thoughts
There were some hits and misses with predictions before the season started as to which teams would make the playoffs. Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama all had at least a 50% chance of making it according to ESPN’s FPI (and those 3 all made it). On the other hand, Texas, Penn State, and Notre Dame all had a 50% or better chance and didn’t make it. Texas Tech and James Madison were each given less than a 6% chance of making it to the CFP. Surprisingly, Tulane was given a 19.4% chance and did make it; that was the 20th highest chance. The only Group-of-Five team that had been given a higher chance was Boise State.
So much of the results of bowl games comes down to motivation and opt-outs. That shouldn’t be a problem for the teams playing in the CFP. But for the other teams, that will likely be a factor, so upsets should be expected.