How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Saturday, 1/31/26
Tip-Off Time: 5:00 pm PT
TV: Big Ten Network
Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR
Location: Evanston, Illinois
Betting Line: Washington Huskies +1
Northwestern Wildcats 2025-26 Statistics:
Record: 10-11 (2-8)
Points For per Game: 77.3 (123rd)
Points Against per Game: 71.8 (106th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 118.9 (54th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (91st)
Strength of Schedule: 35th
Northwestern Key Players:
G- Jake West, Fr. 6’3, 180: 3.6 ppg, 0.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 36.2% FG, 35.5% 3pt, 82.4% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +3.88 (397th overall)
West looked like he was out of the rotation for a while at the beginning of December but has become a key cog and is now in the starting lineup as a true freshman. The per game totals are thus underwhelming but he had his breakout game on Thursday night against Penn State with 7 points and 13 assists against just 1 turnover. Since he moved into the starting lineup he’s averaging 6 points and 5.2 assists per game. He’s one of the worst rebounders in the league and struggles inside the arc but is a great passer and adequate floor spacer that has helped Northwestern lately.
G- Max Green, So. 6’6, 190: 4.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 38.7% FG, 33.8% 3pt, 60.0% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +1.91 (919th overall)
Green also has recently moved into the starting lineup and the Wildcats are 2-1 since that move happened. He transferred in from Holy Cross where he was a 15 ppg scorer but has taken a much reduced role in the Big Ten. So far he has mostly been a 3-point sniper except the shot making is just meh making only 29% of his 3’s so far in conference play. But he takes care of the ball and still functions as a floor spacer which is what Northwestern needs from him.
F- Nick Martinelli, Sr. 6’7, 225: 24.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.8 apg, 55.1% FG, 49.2% 3pt, 79.2% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +5.66 (149th overall)
Martinelli was already one of the best scorers in the conference last season when he averaged 20.5 points per game but has taken his game up another level this season. That success has come from devastating efficiency and he’s shooting a career best on 2’s, 3’s, and at the free throw line. Martinelli only takes about 3-4 three-point attempts per game but is making nearly half of them despite entering the season at 32% for his career. He also has been one of the best mid-range shooters in the country making 48% from there on insane volume. Among Martinelli’s top 5 most similar season comps at KenPom? Jaime Jaquez, Jimmy Butler, and Quincy Pondexter.
F- Tre Singleton, Fr, 6’8, 225: 8.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.6 apg, 46.5% FG, 17.1% 3pt, 73.2% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +2.55 (732nd overall)
Another freshman although unlike West, Singleton has been starting for almost all of the year. But like West, Singleton had a breakout performance against Penn State with 17 points, 18 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks. He takes one to two 3-point shots per game but is just 7/41 so Washington can feel free to ignore him on the perimeter. He’s 7th in conference play in defensive rebounding so it’ll be a fun battle between him and Steinbach when the Huskies miss a shot.
C- Arrinten Page, Jr. 6’11, 245: 11.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.1 bpg, 55.8% FG, 25.8% 3pt, 66.2% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +3.98 (378th overall)
Page is on his 3rd school in 3 years bouncing from USC to Cincinnati and now to Northwestern. He also attempts to stretch the floor but has fewer tries on a slightly better percentage than Singleton. Page is the rim protector option for Northwestern and is 5th in the conference in block rate while shooting over 60% on his 2-point attempts. He’s a clear below average rebounder though for your typical center and either Steinbach or Kepnang should be able to eat his lunch in that regard when they’re out there.
The Outlook
This was supposed to be the point in the schedule where things lightened up for Washington. After playing 5 games against top-12 teams in the AP poll in a span of 7 games, the Huskies don’t play a currently ranked team the rest of the year (Iowa and Wisconsin were in the receiving votes category this week).
This game looked a lot easier just 10 days ago when Northwestern lost by 19 points at home to Nebraska to fall to 8-10 (0-7) and 70th at KenPom. Since then, the Wildcats managed to split the LA road trip and blew out Penn State to surge all the way to 55th not far behind UW. That makes it a match up of the best 10 loss team in the country versus the best 11 loss team in the country. Put that on a marquee.
It seems pretty clear what has gone wrong for Northwestern this season. They rank 362nd in KenPom’s Luck metric which shows there’s a major discrepancy between their performance and their record. They’re 1-5 in games decided by 5 points or fewer including losses to #16 Virginia and #40 Ohio State. Northwestern may only have one win this season against a team in the top 85 at KenPom (at USC last week) but like the Huskies they’ve shown they’re close to winning some of these games even if they’ve struggled to get over the hump.
Whether Northwestern’s fortunes eventually turn is just about all on the shoulders of Nick Martinelli. He currently leads the country in scoring at 24 points per game which is just ahead of BYU’s phenom freshman AJ Dybantsa. Martinelli prefers to work in the midrange where he’s an absolute assassin but is also 14th nationally in 3-point percentage when he takes it beyond the arc. The Huskies will likely put Bryson Tucker on him but the lack of a shut down 6’7/6’8 defender on UW’s roster will probably show up in a glaring way today.
When Northwestern has success on offense it’s because of relentless attention to detail rather than sheer talent. They are just 254th in 3-point percentage despite their leading scorer shooting nearly 50% from deep. Instead, they rank in the top 5 in multiple categories that speak to decision making. Northwestern is 3rd nationally in assist rate. They don’t get forced into hero ball isolation situations and move the basketball relentlessly until they find the best possible shot.
You might think that all those extra passes could result in a lot of turnovers. But you’d be wrong. The Wildcats are 4th in turnover rate on offense and are in the top 15 in both steal rate and non-steal turnovers. That means they don’t let you get your hands on the ball and they also don’t carelessly throw it out of bounds. Everyone on this team takes care of the ball and makes sure that they get a shot up. They also are 2nd in block rate on offense so they aren’t going to drive wildly into the paint when Franck Kepnang is there. It’s either going to be an open layup or they’ll pass it back out and keep hunting for a better shot.
Northwestern struggles more so on the defensive end. USC is the only conference opponent who hasn’t scored at least 70 points against Northwestern and they were just one bucket away from doing so with 68 points. There’s not a clear culprit behind the Wildcat’s struggles on this end of the floor beyond just generally not having many plus defenders on their roster.
Similar to Illinois, Northwestern doesn’t force very many turnovers and are just 313th nationally in steal rate. That style of play is evident in that they’re among the bottom teams in the country in assist rate on defense which means teams are able to move the ball without worry about getting jumped into passing lanes. Zoom Diallo is coming off a career best assist night and should be able to come close to that again if his teammates make perimeter shots for once.
That has been one area where Northwestern has excelled as they’re 51st in opponent 3-point percentage. That might be a function of the schedule though as their season-long number is 30.7% but in conference play it has been 34.1%. A lot of their early Q3/Q4 opponents shot terribly from outside but I’m not convinced that’s skill on Northwestern’s part. Although it doesn’t take defensive skill for the Huskies to miss from deep. Otherwise, Northwestern gives up a lot of offensive rebounds and tends to foul a lot which sets up for a big Hannes Steinbach game.
Northwestern has clearly been playing better as of late. For a long time they were playing lineups for which the advanced data showed they weren’t successful. A recent shift to Jake West and Max Green in the backcourt appears to be paying dividends and this is a more dangerous team than they have appeared at times this season.
At the same time, Washington needs to win this game to keep any dwindling NCAA tournament hopes alive. It wouldn’t be a disgrace to lose this game. But Northwestern is currently 0-5 at home against teams ranked 125th or better at KenPom (slightly misleading since only one of those opponents has been worse than 40th but still). This is a winnable game and Washington is in a position right now where they need every single winnable game they can get.
I expect Nick Martinelli to go for 30+ points overall. If he somehow doesn’t then that’s probably a good omen for Washington. Even if he does though, Washington needs to shut down everyone else and dare him to beat them single-handed. I was impressed with the effort against Illinois on Thursday night but they just couldn’t go shot for shot with the best offense in the country. It’s possible that leads to tired legs with a less than 48 hour turnaround on the road but I’m going to give UW the benefit of the doubt and say they’re able to get this done thanks to a 22 and 16 performance from Hannes Steinbach.
Prediction
Washington Huskies– 76, Northwestern Wildcats- 72
Season picks: 15-6 straight up, 10-11 against the spread