The Ohio State Buckeyes, defending national champions and #1 team in the country, come to Montlake this week for the first time in 18 years. Coincidentally, 2007 was also the last time the #1 team in the country visited UW (the USC Trojans). The Huskies are on the hunt for a signature win in the Jedd Fisch Era, and beating the Buckeyes to go 2 for 2 against defending national champions would be considered just that.
While this Ohio State team is noticeably different from last year’s one, this is still as talented of a team as any, and their defense is arguably the best in college football. Led by safety Caleb Downs, possibly the nation’s best defensive player at any position, the Buckeye defense will have a chance to answer the question of what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
The Scheme & Personnel
Outside of Caleb Downs, the Buckeye defense lacks the star power or name recognition of units in the recent past, but that shouldn’t be mistaken for lack of elite talent. While there’s no Bosa brother, Chase Young, Denzel Ward, or Marshon Lattimore, there might also not be a clear weakness in this unit either. Up front, Ohio State fields a defensive line where not a single starter was ranked outside of the top 150 recruits in the country. DE Caden Curry shares the team lead in sacks with 2, and DT duo Kayden McDonald and Eddrick Houston anchor a defense that is yielding just 3.2 yards per carry on the season. The real underrated strength of this defensive unit though might be at LB. Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese are freakishly athletic Swiss Army knives at the second level. Styles, a converted safety, somehow has both the range of a DB and the size (6-5, 243lbs) of a throwback ILB. Same goes for Arvell Reese, who at 6-4 243lbs plays more of a hybrid LB/pass rush role and also shares the team lead in sacks.
These types of versatile chess pieces at LB, plus Caleb Downs’ own versatility as a 3-level player, seem to be a great fit for new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia’s Belichick-inspired multiple defense. Patricia, a long time Patriots assistant and former Detroit Lions HC, joined the staff after Jim Knowles departure in the offseason to take over Penn State’s defense. The most noticeable change to watch for is their defensive fronts. Patricia is a fan of Odd fronts, and his Patriots defenses were one of the first to popularize 5-1 looks against Zone run offenses (something the Huskies defense has also adopted). This is a departure from the Even front defenses that Ohio State has been known for over the last decade plus. Patricia has also brought other NFL influences to Columbus, such as heavier usage of sub package personnel groupings and coverage disguises. What does that mean for Saturday? You should keep an eye out for things like specialized rush packages featuring all pass rusher fronts in passing situations, and you should also keep an eye out for a lot of post-snap safety movement. 2-high rotating into single-high, LBs and DBs feigning a blitz before bailing into zone, CBs showing press man before bailing into a deep zone.
Keys to the Game
There are a few ways to approach such a daunting match up, both strategically and schematically. From a game planning strategy perspective, Fisch and the staff have to make a decision on whether they’re better off running their offense, including a healthy dose of up tempo, with the idea that they are able to play most efficiently and explosively doing what’s worked so far this season. Or, they could choose to intentionally shorten the game by slowing down the tempo and running the ball with the thinking that fewer possessions means fewer opportunities for Ohio State to leverage a talent advantage (offensively and defensively). My thought is that Fisch will take the former since they need to score points to win anyways. Fortunately, the Husky offense has been exceedingly efficient on the ground, so it could be possible that we get a little of both options.
Schematically, the offense will have to figure out how they want to handle the trio of Downs, Styles, and Reese. It’ll be hard to avoid the three of them as they often are patrolling the middle of the field, and they are rangy enough that it may not be as simple as attacking the perimeter through the air. The obvious answer would be to attack them with Option concepts and RPOs where we can get the numerical advantage against the run and targeting them as a read defender would avoid needing to have someone win a 1v1 matchup against them. Texas was able to move the chains reasonably well on the ground with the help of the QB run game and some off script play making from Arch Manning. Demond Williams is a significantly more dynamic runner than Manning, but the Buckeye defense may also be better prepared for it than they were against Texas. This game may come down to whether or not Ohio State can stop our rushing attack with Coleman and Williams. If they can do that and force us to pass, we may not have the firepower outside of Boston to keep up with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate on the Buckeyes’ side.