How to Watch (and bet)
Date: Wednesday, 1/7/26
Tip-Off Time: 5:30 pm PT
TV: Big Ten Network
Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR
Location: West Lafayette, IN
Betting Line: Washington Huskies +16.5
Purdue Boilermakers 2025-26 Statistics:
Record: 13-1 (3-0)
Points For per Game: 86.4 (33rd)
Points Against per Game: 66.5 (31st)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 129.1 (1st)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 95.6 (15th)
Strength of Schedule: 13th
Purdue Key Players:
G- Braden Smith, Sr. 6’0, 170: 12.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 9.6 apg, 44.3% FG, 38.9% 3pt, 74.4% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +11.7 BPR (3rd nationally)
Smith set the all-time Big Ten career assists record in his last game and is currently on pace to set the overall NCAA mark if he keeps up on this pace and Purdue has moderate success in the NCAA tournament. Last year Smith finished 2nd nationally in assist rate and is 4th this season in the post-Zach Edey era and will go down as an all-time great. In addition to the passing he has also shot at least 38% from deep in every season of his acreer and consistently has a very good steal rate. There’s a reason he won B1G player of the year last year and has a good shot at it again.
G- CJ Cox, Sr. 6’3, 195: 8.1 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.1 apg, 47.1% FG, 41.2% 3pt, 92.3% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +6.4 BPR (91st nationally)
Cox shot nearly 40% from deep last season as a true freshman and is better than that so far this year. He has been an elite sniper but struggled a bit in Big Ten play so far so hopefully that continues. Otherwise, Cox doesn’t provide a ton of value on the defensive end or as a rebounder but spaces the floor and doesn’t turn it over. He makes the ideal 5th man on offense playing alongside the rest of the starters.
G- Fletcher Loyer, Sr. 6’5, 180: 14.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.7 apg, 43.5% FG, 40.6% 3pt, 91.5% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +7.5 BPR (37th nationally)
Loyer’s surprisingly leading the Boilermakers in points per game but that’s in part due to Purdue’s balanced scoring attack. He shot 44% from deep each of the previous two seasons and is just a bit below that mark so far this year but is taking a much higher percentage of his shots from 3 with TKR and Cluff cloggin the paint. Loyer is similar to Cox in that he doesn’t rebound or get steals but spaces the floor and plays within the team concept on defense.
F- Trey Kaufman-Renn, Sr, 6’9, 240: 13.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 57.8% FG, 40.0% 3pt, 62.5% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +7.6 BPR (34th nationally)
TKR missed the first two games of the season due to injury and has remade himself a bit after a breakout All-American caliber season last year. His usage rate is way down but he’s become a much improved rebounder playing a more natural PF position with two other centers now on the team. The matchup of him versus Hannes Steinbach is one that NBA executives will be drooling over.
F- Oscar Cluff, Sr. 6’11, 255: 11.4 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.8 ast, 73.9% FG, 78.9% FT
Evanmiya.com Stats: +9.6 BPR (9th nationally)
Cluff transferred in from South Dakota State where he was the national rebounding champ last year but started his career before that at Wazzu (averaged 12 pts, 7.5 reb against UW in 2 games). He is leading the country in offensive rating this season and is second nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Purdue bludgeons teams on the boards and Cluff is a leading reason why. He doesn’t take a lot of shots but when he does it’s almost always a basket, a foul, or both.
The Outlook
I mentioned that I actually liked the matchup against Indiana provided the Hoosiers don’t go supernova from the three-point line. That mostly came to fruition except the Hoosiers did indeed go supernova from deep. They had three players each shooting 30% of worse from 3 coming into the game combine to go 8/12. That’ll happen.
It’s more likely to happen though against this Purdue team. There were question marks entering the year about whether Purdue’s spacing could survive playing TKR and Oscar Cluff together, neither of whom really shoot the ball from deep. But surround them with three elite shooters when they’re on the court, one of whom is the best passer in the sport, and then grabbing every missed shot with your inside advantage has produced the best offense in the country.
There are only a few areas that you can even nitpick about Purdue’s offense. The one area they aren’t among the elite nationally is in free throw rate. Purdue takes a surprising number of midrange jumpers for an elite offense which means they don’t draw a ton of fouls. That means they’re 344th in average 2-point distance away from the rim and 350th in the percentage of their points that come at the free throw line. It doesn’t matter though.
Braden Smith is shooting 44% on midrange shots, TKR is 53% and Oscar Cluff is 54%. Even when Purdue takes what is supposed to be a bad shot, they still go in with average efficiency for most teams. And if you do manage to get lucky enough for Purdue to miss a shot? Get ready for them to take another one because they rebound nearly 40% of their misses playing over half the time with two truly elite rebounders on the court simultaneous.
The defense is clearly worse than the offense for Purdue but it’s still way better than Washington’s unit. The Boilermakers just don’t foul teams (5th in opposing foul rate) and also don’t let teams get to the rim (2nd in average 2-point distance). That’s not great for a Husky team that struggles to shoot the ball and is relying upon driving headlong to the rim and shooting free throws. And Purdue has a backup center leading the country in block rate with 7’4 Daniel Jacobsen.
Purdue has had a relatively cushy start to Big Ten play but even so has won each of their 3 conference games all by a margin of at least 16 points (including 2 on the road). Their lone loss this season is to undefeated Iowa State and they have wins over top-60 KenPom teams by 7, 18, 30, 28, and 16 points. Washington’s lone win against that caliber opponent so far this year was the 8-point comeback over fading USC.
There’s no reason to expect Washington to look competitive in this game. Purdue has played a lot of teams in a similar tier to the Huskies and have blown them out. Washington theoretically has the size inside with Steinbach and Kepnang to counter the TKR plus Cluff/Jacobsen duos but if either gets into foul trouble it could quickly turn into an avalanche. And the shooting around those big men is infinitely superior. Purdue has the 7th best continuity, is the 22nd most experienced team, and has elite talent. That’s the dream. It’s far away from UW’s reality.
Prediction
Washington Huskies– 72, Purdue Boilermakers- 92
Season picks: 10-4 straight up, 7-7 against the spread