It’s finally Apple Cup week, and our writers have made their predictions as to how the 117th edition will play out!
Max Vrooman (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Last week’s result for Washington State makes this both easier and harder to make a prediction. On the one hand, there’s no way that anyone in good conscience could pick the Huskies to lose to a team coming off a 59-10 loss at North Texas. On the other, it seems like Washington State may be making a QB change which could alter the formula for how to attack the Cougs. Jaxon Potter started the last 3 games and took 0 sacks on 18 pressures because he had the second lowest time to throw in FBS per Pro Football Focus. The Cougars have tried to get the ball out of Potter’s hands as quickly as possible and hope their receivers can make a defender miss to get yards after the catch. And yet Potter still has a below average turnover-worthy play rate after throwing 4 first half interceptions last week. That potentially means Zevi Eckhaus will get the start after stepping up in backup duty last week. Eckhaus (in admittedly just 10 snaps) held the ball almost a second longer than Potter and threw it nearly 5 yards further downfield so it would mean a very different attack. The Huskies haven’t won a game outside Husky Stadium since the Sugar Bowl against Texas. That was about 20 months ago. Everything on the field says this should be a blowout but the combination of a raucous road atmosphere (the 1st ever game WSU will be selling alcohol in the stadium) and UW’s recent road history means I’ll predict the Cougar cover. Washington- 34, Washington State- 20
Andrew Berg (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
There are upsides and downsides to playing a team coming off a miserable performance. The Cougs had one of their worst games since the Paul Wulff era in last week’s blowout loss to North Texas. Everything that could go wrong for Wazzu did go wrong, including 5 turnovers and only 2.3 yards per carry on the ground. Just by pure luck, it’s unlikely Wazzu can possibly play as badly a second week in a row. The added motivation of the Apple Cup and the relatively early point in the season means it would be premature to assume the Cougs are ready to give up on the season. However, there is plenty of good news for Dawg fans. Namely, WSU is bad. There’s no perfect all-up metric for a team, but you could do worse than Net EPA/play, where WSU ranks 117th nationally. If you want to be charitable, you could describe their pass offense as “below average.” The rush offense, pass defense, and rush defense all range from bad to extremely bad. They are not equipped to target UW’s relative weakness against power run attacks and they have already shown a propensity to be gashed by good opposing runners (the Huskies have one of those). There’s a blueprint for WSU to stay in games. They achieved a comfortable win over San Diego State by completing a high percentage of short passes to sustain drives and limiting explosive plays by the opponent. UW’s offense has shown a unique ability to sustain drives with diverse play-calling, so I am less concerned about the Dawgs shooting themselves in the foot. I remain a bit nervous about a three-TD spread on the road against a rival. If the wheels fall off for the Cougs for a second week in a row, it’s certainly possible to cover. I’m going to pick a comfortable Husky win, but not quite by the 20.5 point margin. Washington 38 – Washington State 20
Mark Schafer (2-0 SU, 1-1 SU)
It’s Apple Cup week, and it’s a big one, as the Huskies will look to avenge their loss from last year. They’ll have a tougher task, as they will go on the road and a raucous Cougar crowd will look to throw the Huskies off their game. That will be compounded by the Cougs being motivated by the desire to retain the hardware. That being said, I don’t think they will! For starters, this is a very different Husky team from last year, featuring a full offensive line, numerous returning starters, and an electric young quarterback in Demond Williams. I expect a heavy dose of Jonah Coleman, as the Dawgs will look to crush the Cougars’ spirit early, and the addition of Omari Evans and Dezmen Roebuck will give the Huskies the vertical threat to beat the Cougs deep, giving the potential for plenty of fireworks. Defensively, the Huskies may be without Tacario Davis, and denying the short to intermediate passing game is paramount to the gameplan in shutting down the Cougars’ on offense. That responsibility might ultimately fall on the front seven to get pressure on the quarterback. If we can do that, then this’ll be well in hand, but we have struggled with that so far this year. Forcing turnovers and forcing the QB to make mistakes may well be the key to winning this one. A 3 touchdown line is a herculean task for any team, so I don’t see a cover, but I do see a win!
Washington-42, Washington State-28
Raymond Lucas Jr. (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Motivation is powerful and isn’t hard to find in rivalry game. Washington will walk into Martin Stadium in a venue filled with fans that view UW as one of the schools that stabbed the Pac-12 in the back, and left Wazzu a non-power conference member. Beating the Huskies and storming the field would be a core memory for many of those fans, especially students. On the other end, Washington was embarrassed in the Apple Cup last season and had to deal with the frustration of losing to an arch-rival. Piling onto the feeling was ex-head coach Jake Dickert claiming that the Cougs’ should keep the trophy forever, saying it belongs to the Pac-12. Of course, he notably left to Wake Forest after the season. So much for Pac-12 loyalty.
Washington should win this game. As I continue to mention in my predictions, there’s nothing you can do with Jonah Coleman, unless you have the perfect game plan and the right bodies. Wazzu’s gameplan will come to light Saturday, but it certainly doesn’t have the bodies.
I think he’s going to set the tone and the rest of the Huskies will feed off his intensity to win comfortably over Wazzu. A slowish start in the opening quarter wouldn’t surprise me since it’s the first game away from home. That being said…
Washington-31 Washington State-13
Prediction Stats
Straight Up: Washington-4, Washington State-0
Against The Spread: Washington-0, Washington State-4
Average Score: Washington-36, Washington State-25
Let us know your prediction in the comments below!