The Huskies will wrap up their season in Los Angeles as they take on the Mountain West champion Boise State Broncos in the Chris Petersen Bucked Up LA Bowl, presented by Gronk! Our staff has their picks below!
Andrew Berg (11-1 SU, 4-8 ATS)
There is room for debate on the subject of how good Boise St really is. If you believe in them, you probably point out that they hammered UNLV twice and beat New Mexico to give them three wins over teams with 9+ wins on the year. You probably also point to their defense, ranked 13th nationally in success rate and 3rd against dropback passes. The offense also got QB Maddux Madsen back in the CCG, and even if he’s not spectacular, he gives the offense a boost. If you don’t believe in them, you might say that they scored exactly 7 points four times against (arguably) the four best teams on the schedule, Notre Dame, South Florida, San Diego St, and Fresno St. You might also say that the defense is overrated by success rate and is only 50th nationally in SP+ and 39th in EPA/play. Whether you are high or low on Boise, it’s clear that UW will have to focus on the run game when they have the ball. While Boise’s defense has been good overall, they do not tackle well. They rank very poorly on yards after contact and EPA when the QB scrambles. These areas are both strengths for the Dawgs. If Jonah Coleman is healthy, he should be able to end his collegiate career on a high note. If not, Adam Mohammed has earned by trust against better rush defenses than this one. Defensively, the Huskies have improved through the year. They will have to maintain their growth against the run because Boise will like to focus on 1,000-yard rusher Dylan Riley. The Broncos have not been a great big-play offense, so there will be lots of 3rd down and red zone opportunities where the Huskies will have to make plays to end drives. Overall, I see the game closer than the 9.5 point spread, but I think the Huskies pull it out.
Washington 27, Boise St- 21
Max Vrooman (9-3 SU, 3-9 ATS)
The incredibly early bowl slot admittedly means I haven’t gotten to think about this matchup in as much detail as I normally would. But the essential is that Boise State is nowhere close to the team they were a season ago when they had Ashton Jeanty despite winning a 3rd straight Mountain West championship. The Broncos rank 50th at SP+ with the 49th ranked offense and the 50th ranked defense. They kind of just are who they are. QB Maddux Madsen was more of a game manager in 2024 with defenses focused on the running game and he didn’t a major step forward this year. Injury was part of that as he missed basically 4 games but he had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws per PFF for the 3rd straight season. The running game eventually hit its stride as Boise had 3 backs with 400+ yards on 5+ yards per carry each combine to go over 2,000 total yards. That checks out as the only Boise offensive players to make MWC all-conference 1st team were a pair of offensive lineman (RB Dylan Riley was 2nd team). The Boise front seven was lacking in elite play makers. Only five BSU players had more than one sack and none had more than seven. The strength of the defense is in the secondary as each of their starting corners finished with 4 interceptions and held opponents to a 55% or less completion percentage when targeted. Washington should be just as healthy as they have been in over a month unless there was a new injury in practice this week we don’t know about. This is a Boise defense that isn’t as good as the ones that have given the Huskies problems and UW has generally vaporized the less talented defenses on their schedule. I’ll give Boise a little more credit than that but I’m feeling an unwarranted amount of optimism here.
Washington- 34, Boise State, 17
Mark Schafer (8-4 SU, 1-11 ATS)
It’s time for an exceptionally early bowl game in Los Angeles! The Huskies come into this one essentially off of a bye week, and should be the healthiest they’ve been in several weeks, with no opt outs that usually cloud games like this. But they’re facing a Boise State team that has won their last 3 conference championships, with an offense that’s pretty talented, led by Maddux Madsen. But Madsen hasn’t taken the leap that was expected this season, and sits at a pretty pedestrian 2283 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Likewise, receiver Latrell Caples paced the team with 46 catches, 547 yards and 3 touchdowns, which is also pretty middling. However, they shouldn’t be underestimated, and the real threat for the Broncos is the three headed monster at running back, led by thousand yard rusher Dylan Riley. The team as a whole is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, so the defensive linemen, edges and linebackers will have to be disciplined and push back against this offensive line, if they are to win this game. But from what I’ve seen from this defense over the past few weeks, that’s a challenge that they’re up for!
Offensively, these Dawgs will have to overcome Boise State’s corners, but with Denzel Boston hopefully fully healthy, and a whole host of other threats at the disposal of Demond Williams, they should be okay in the pass game. Otherwise, they should lean on either Jonah Coleman or Adam Mohammed (both having had great days against better run defenses) and bully the Broncos up front, and send Jonah to the NFL on a good note. Overall, I see a win for the Dawgs, as a couple late touchdowns allow them to pull away, and win the final LA Bowl comfortably!
Washington-35, Boise State-17
Prediction Stats
Straight Up: Washington–3, Boise State-0
Against the Spread: Washington-2, Boise State-1
Average Score: Washington–32, Boise State–18
Let us know your picks in the comments below!