The moment is almost at hand. The biggest home game in quite some time is almost upon us and we’ve got predictions! Let’s get to it!
Andrew Berg (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS)
I have underrated Washington pretty consistently so far this year. The offense has simply been better and more consistent than I expected, starting along the offensive line. I guess it’s not surprising that I saw the line at Washington +9.5 and thought it was way too low. The reason for my skepticism essentially comes down to the level of competition. The best team UW has played also lost by 49 to North Texas. Yes, UW has knocked down the bowling pins set up in their lane, but the pins are about to get a lot heavier. It starts on the offensive line. The Dawgs have improved massively on offense because the line has effectively zone blocked for Jonah Coleman to open up all kinds of options on both the ground and through the air. I don’t expect another 150 yards or 3 TDs for Coleman, but if he can even crack 4.5 yards per carry on solid volume, it will be a big indicator that Jedd Fisch’s offense can work against this level of competition. Of course, even if the Dawgs move the ball consistently through the game, they still have to get stops. They haven’t done that very consistently through the season, even against lesser opposition. Even in Julian Sayin’s first career road start, the receiving pair of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate provide a pretty exceptional security blanket. Coming off a bye, the coaches had an extra week to get Sayin ready for the environment. If Tacario Davis can’t go and the Huskies have to rely on freshman Dylan Robinson to cover one of the star receivers, it creates even more risk. I can’t see UW forcing numerous three-and-outs by stonewalling the Buckeyes. For the Dawgs to win, it will take multiple turnovers and/or an abnormal number of OSU offensive penalties and negative plays. The Dawgs being at home and fielding a better offense than expected makes this a more interesting game than I expected going into the season. Even adjusting for my own under-estimation, it seems like too many things need to go wrong for OSU for me to confidently pick the Dawgs.
Ohio State 41 – Washington 30
Max Vrooman (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS)
It’s easy to talk yourself into this one if you’re a Washington fan. Ohio State will be starting a QB making his first career road start in what promises to be a raucous Husky Stadium (check out my article on that from yesterday then come back). The Husky offense has been borderline unstoppable the past 3 weeks. The Dawgs have a 22-game home win streak going. A win here and all of a sudden the College Football Playoff becomes a legitimate possibility for UW. And yet…the last time that Ohio State lost a regular season game to someone other than Michigan or Oregon was on October 20th, 2018. Almost 7 years ago. This Buckeyes team isn’t as good as last year’s title winner but they’re much better than the Michigan squad that lost to UW in Seattle last year coming off a championship. OSU still has 7 players ranked in the top 85 of PFF’s initial draft Big Board compared to just 2 for Washington. If Tacario Davis were 100% healthy I would give the Dawgs a better chance. No one is going to shut down Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate but a healthy Davis/Prysock duo would give UW a chance to seriously slow them down. I’m not getting positive vibes for Tacario’s availability this week and I think either Leroy Bryant or true frosh Dylan Robinson will get torched multiple times if pressed into action. Not to mention OSU just being able to likely grind it out on the ground against a shaky UW run defense missing their best linebacker. Washington’s offense will put together some drives but I see Ohio State holding them at arm’s length for most of the game before a late touchdown closes things back to within single digits.
Washington- 24, Ohio State- 33
Mark Schafer (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS)
I am always an optimist, and for everybody who has kept track here for the past 3 years knows, I never have picked against the Huskies. The combination of this Ohio State roster (with future All Americans and NFL draft picks everywhere), and the Huskies’ own shortcomings might make this the one time where I break my rule. But I still can’t bring myself to pick against the Dawgs. A close analog to this game might be the Oregon game last year, where the Dawgs were overmatched on both sides of the ball, and on the road, it was a recipe for disaster from the opening kick. This year, however, we are playing #1 at home, have a rebuilt offensive line, and have seen Demond Williams take a big leap. Now comes his first real test. Can he hold up against one of the best defenses in the country? Can Jonah run all over their defense and get to the second level? Will Denzel be able to do what he does, using his height to go get the ball over defenders? Can the defense stop one of the most efficient quarterbacks in college football and at least slow down one of the most explosive receiver corps in the country? If we are able to do all of those things, we have a shot, but what’s really going to put us over the top is if somebody unheralded steps up to deliver in the big moments. Maybe Decker Degraaf has a big performance. Maybe the defense makes a timely stop or forces a big turnover! Whatever the case may be, a moment like that is needed to swing the game, and if that can happen, the Huskies can pull off one of the biggest upsets in program history! Washington-35 Ohio State-34
Raymond Lucas Jr. (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS)
As far as what’s on the other side of the ball, this may be Washington’s most frightening matchup since Alabama in the 2016 College Football Playoff. The collection of talent Ohio State has is a dream roster for most college football fans. As I’ve mentioned multiple times since the offseason, the nation’s two best players are Buckeyes. The two being safety Caleb Downs and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. And yet… the path to victory isn’t as simple as you’d guess. I don’t have to tell you about Husky Stadium. I don’t have to tell you about the limbo Demond Williams’ dual-threat ability puts defenses in. Or the business decisions Jonah Coleman forces defenders to consider. Washington getting off to a quick start is paramount. Score, get a stop, score again. See if the early two-score advantage and deafening noise can rattle Julian Sayin, who is poised, but making his first career road start. I assume that Washington will attempt to limit Ohio State’s total possessions by playing off the star receivers and backing the safeties up. What that does, in theory, is limit the big chunks and home runs. The Buckeyes’ rushing attack isn’t nearly as dangerous as the passing attack. On the other side of the ball, Washington knows it’ll need to dissect OSU with patience rather than a big-play hunt because the Buckeyes’ defense is talented and well-coached. Caleb Downs is always lurking. All of that being said… I think this game will come down to whether or not Washington can get off the field on third down. It’ll enter Saturday 49th in the country in third down defense. That’s bad news. Third down is typically an obvious passing down. Washington’s secondary struggled against Wazzu for three quarters, and those receivers in Pullman would often run the scout team in Columbus—more bad news. Washington’s defense will either be without Tacario Davis or have a non-100% version of him. Do you sense a trend? Washington strikes fear in the Buckeyes with a hot start, but falters in the end. A late field goal helps OSU seal it and cover the spread.
Ohio State 34-Washington-24
Prediction Stats
Straight Up: Washington 1, Ohio State, 3
Against the Spread: Washington 1, Ohio State, 3
Average Score: Ohio State-36, Washington-28