We are nowhere close to getting clarity on who is going to make an all-conference team at the end of the year. There hasn’t even been a conference game played yet. However, this year I want to be able to see how the progression goes throughout the season for all-conference candidates so we’re starting early. My plan is to do a refresh on this every other week to get a sense for how much there really is a shift throughout the season.
I’m going to try to do my best to start over every single time I make the designations and not keep someone as a first-teamer just because they happened to be there during the last refresh. So in essence the way the College Football Playoff selection show is supposed to work whether that’s actually how it functions.
Below are my picks and a quick recap of the decisions at each position. In order to provide the stat breakdowns I used some shorthand abbreviations. Any use of “yards” includes combined non-sack passing/rushing/receiving yards. Similarly TDs are combined passing/rushing/receiving/return touchdowns. Acronyms that might not be completely clear are: Yards per Attempt (YPA), Big-Time Throw Rate (BTT Rate), Turnover-Worthy Play Rate (TWP Rate), MTF (Missed Tackles Forced), YPC (Yards per Carry), Y/RR (Yards per Route Run), Stops (tackles on unsuccessful plays by the offense).
Quarterback
1st Team: Jaiden Maiava (USC)- 721 yds, 16.8 YPA, 7 TD, 0 INT, 2.3% BTT Rate, 0.0% TWP Rate
2nd Team: Dante Moore (Oregon)- 508 yds, 10.9 YPA, 6 TD, 0 INT, 4.3% BTT Rate, 0.0% TWP Rate
3rd Team: Luke Altmyer (Illinois)- 553 yds, 9.7 YPA, 6 TD, 0 INT, 3.3% BTT Rate, 0.0% TWP Rate
It’s a bit of a no-brainer for the 1st team spot and then a much more difficult decision below that. Maiava is averaging an absolutely absurd 16.8 YPA through 2 games in which USC’s offense absolutely vaporized extremely undermanned opponents. That’s not even remotely close to sustainable but for right now a pace of 4,000+ yards and 40+ TDs is good enough for 1st team.
There’s a healthy debate beyond that. There are another 4 QBs in the conference who are averaging 8+ YPA with 0 turnover-worthy plays so far based on PFF grading. That group includes the 2 I have above plus Athan Kaliakmanis from Rutgers and Demond Williams Jr for UW. Williams is 1st in that group in total yards but has 3 fewer total TDs than anyone else and the lowest completion percentage. That was enough of a gap for me to go with the others. Kaliakmanis has the lowest YPA so I crossed him off the list which left Moore and Altmyer. You could also reasonably make an argument for Dylan Raiola of Nebraska if you wanted to do so.
Running Back
1st Team: Jonah Coleman (Washington)- 334 yds, 7 TD, 11 MTF, 7.4 YPC; Justice Haynes (Michigan)- 285 yds, 4 TD, 11 MTF, 8.1 YPC
2nd Team: Emmett Johnson (Nebraska)- 282 yds, 3 TD, 9 MTF, 6.4 YPC; Waymond Jordan (USC)- 225 yards, 2 TD, 9 MTF, 10.0 YPC
3rd Team: Kaytron Allen (Penn State)- 192 yds, 2 TD, 13 MTF, 7.8 YPC; Antwan Raymond (Rutgers)- 182 yds, 3 TD, 12 MTF, 6.3 YPC
I don’t think there’s a ton of arguments for the top spot. Coleman and Haynes are 1 and 2 in the conference in both total yards and total touchdowns with Coleman leading in both. There are a few others that have been a little more efficient on a yards per carry basis but all-conference picks are about total volume. Coleman has a big enough lead that he shouldn’t fall any further back than 2nd team after week 3 despite having a bye.
Johnson and Jordan were my 2nd team picks as they were 3/4 in total yards where Johnson had a big yardage lead and Jordan had a big efficiency lead. That mean Allen and Raymond fell to 3rd team where each has performed extremely well from a breaking tackles standpoint but haven’t gotten the same volume as the group above them.
Wide Receiver
1st Team: Hank Beatty (Illinois)- 261 yds, 2 TD, 6.05 Y/RR; Makai Lemon (USC)- 248 yds, 2 TD, 7.52 Y/RR; Ian Strong (Rutgers)- 216 yds, 2 TD, 3.09 Y/RR
2nd Team: Jeremiah Smith (Ohio St)- 162 yds, 2 TD, 4.15 Y/RR; Elijah Sarrat (Indiana)- 141 yds, 3 TD, 2.56 Y/RR); Dakorien Moore (Oregon)- 137 yds, 2 TD, 4.32 Y/RR
3rd Team: Jacory Barney Jr. (Nebraska)- 159 yds, 0 TD, 2.89 Y/RR; Denzel Boston (Washington)- 142 yds, 2 TD, 2.29 Y/RR; Arhmad Branch (Purdue)- 132 yds, 2 TD, 4.55 Y/RR
This one is pretty tough outside of the top two. Beatty and Lemon have been hands down the most productive receivers in the conference through two weeks and have top spots completely locked up this week. Ian Strong has 5 more catches and 50 more yards than Jeremiah Smith so far but has run more routes which made it close. I gave the nod to Strong although voters would give Smith the benefit of the doubt there based on the raw talent differential.
Indiana’s Elijah Sarrat leads the way with 3 TD catches so he gets onto the second team along with Oregon 5-star freshman Dakorien Moore whose counting stats are on par with others in this group but Moore has done it with strong efficiency while also getting some rushing opportunities. The punt return TD secures Boston’s spot on one of the teams (I’m not doing separate special teams here) while Barney and Branch have been more efficient despite similar raw totals.
Tight End
1st Team: Lance Mason (Wisconsin)- 102 yds, 1 TD, 2.83 Y/RR
2nd Team: Lake McRee (USC)- 106 yds, 1 TD, 3.31 Y/RR
3rd Team: Marlin Klein (Michigan)- 93 yds, 1 TD, 4.43 Y/RR
It’s really hard to tell who has been a standout performer at the tight end position in the conference at this point. Gone are Tyler Warren and Terrance Ferguson and it doesn’t seem like there’s a TE right now who is better than maybe 3rd in the pecking order for their respective teams.
There are 5 players with between 91 and 106 receiving yards through 2 weeks and all have scored at least 1 TD. The best counting stats belong to Maryland’s Dorian Fleming but PFF hasn’t liked his blocking and he was 4th of the group in yards per route run. Nebraska’s Luke Lindenmeyer (congrats on the engagement, Luke) was 5th in yards per route run so those are the two I eliminated.
Offensive Line
1st Team: LT Carver Willis (Washington); LG Beau Stephens (Iowa); C Jake Renfro (Wisconsin); RG- Kade Pieper (Iowa); RT Drew Azzopardi (Washington)
2nd Team: LT Trevor Lauck (Iowa); LG Vega Ioane (Penn State); C Michael Hershey (Maryland); RG- Kwabena Asomoah (Rutgers); RT Alex Harkey (Oregon)
3rd Team: LT Caleb Tiernan (Northwestern); LG Greg Johnson (Minnesota); C Matt Gulbin (Michigan State);RG Emerson Mandell (Wisconsin); RT Gennings Dunker (Iowa)
I’m pretty up front with the offensive line that I just go off of PFF grades because there’s no way for me to scout the OL and the stats from other sources for individual linemen are even sketchier. My criteria were that I pick the highest graded player at each line spot who has played the majority of their snaps at that position. There were a few tackles who have taken snaps at both LT and RT who had better grades than Tiernan at Northwestern but played more snaps at RT and couldn’t beat out Azzopardi/Harkey/Dunker.
Is it likely to be the case that Washington finishes the season with both their tackles as 1st team all-conference guys? No. But even if there’s plenty of room to go down from here, it’s still pretty nice to see them both playing so well. John Mills and Landen Hatchett were also each in the top-25 linemen in the conference but center and left guard appear to be two of the stronger spots so far and so they couldn’t crack the top-3 at their position.
Defensive Tackle
1st Team: Tomiwa Durojaye (Illinois)- 6 tackles, 6 pressures, 1 sack, 4 stops; Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)- 11 tackles, 1 pressure, 0 sack, 4 stops
2nd Team: James Thompson Jr. (Illinois)- 6 tackles, 4 pressures, 0 sack, 6 stops; Gary Smith III (UCLA)- 9 tackles, 0 pressure, 0 sack, 6 stops
3rd Team: A’Mauri Washington (Oregon)- 6 tackles, 2 pressures, 0 sack, 5 stops; Ben Roberts (Michigan State)- 9 tackles, 0 pressures, 0 sack, 5 stops
This group is a little easier to analyze than the O-line but only just. I tend to look at QB pressures and stops as the primary basis for judging DL performance but there are definitely space eaters out there who are still very impactful at taking up blockers who get missed by that analysis.
Illinois has both of their interior starters featured above as they’ve been able to get consistent inside pressure through two games so far. New Ohio State starter Kayden McDonald has finally gotten his chance to shine with veterans moving on to the draft in front of him and leads all B1G DL in tackles so far. The third team features a current Oregon player and an Oregon transfer Ben Roberts (also a former Husky decommit). There are a pair of players with 2 sacks (Carmine Bastone from Northwestern and Dillan Fontus from Maryland) who also warranted consideration on the 3rd team but their other stats weren’t as good.
Edge Rusher
1st Team: Gabe Jacas (Illinois)- 1 tackle, 7 pressures, 3 sacks, 4 stops; Mason Reiger (Wisconsin)- 8 tackles, 9 pressures, 1 sack, 7 stops
2nd Team: Dani Dennis-Sutton (Penn State)- 7 tackles, 7 pressures, 1 sack, 5 stops; Chaz Coleman (Penn State)- 3 tackles, 9 pressures, 1 sack, 4 stops
3rd Team: Sidney Stewart (Maryland)- 6 tackles, 8 pressures, 2 sacks, 7 stops; Anthony Smith (Minnesota)- 2 tackles, 5 pressures, 3 sacks, 4 stops
Jacas and Dennis-Sutton came into the year with the most hype at this position and both have largely lived up to the top billing so far. Mason Reiger has been a breakout star for Wisconsin after transferring in from Louisville then missing all last season due to injury. That will be a huge boost for the Badgers if he’s able to maintain all-conference type production. And Penn State always grows pass rushers on trees as Chaz Coleman has stepped in as a four-star true freshman and instantly produced a 45%+ pressure rate just two games into his career while replacing top draft pick Abdul Carter.
Linebacker
1st Team: Daniel Wingate (Maryland)- 29 tackles, 2 pressures, 2 TFL, 14 stops, 1 INT; Tony Rojas (Penn State)- 12 tackles, 2 pressures, 3 TFL, 9 stops
2nd Team: Moses Walker (Rutgers)- 12 tackles, 4 pressures, 2 TFL, 9 stops; Maverick Baranowski (Minnesota)- 11 tackles, 2 TFL, 4 stops, 1 INT
3rd Team: Wayne Matthews III (Michigan State)- 16 tackles, 2 pressures, 7 stops; Devon Williams (Minnesota)- 9 tackles, 3 pressures, 1 sack, 7 stops
Maryland’s Daniel Wingate is the clear leader in the clubhouse to end up leading the conference in total tackles and appears to have taken a leap after a solid sophomore season. Tony Rojas from Penn State was a top preseason pick and has played about as well as expected so far. Things get a little tricky after that. Some of the top pure tacklers have really bad PFF grades. I try to shy away from using PFF for positions where other stats exist but I do disqualify players with truly bad grades. UCLA’s two linebackers for instance are #2 and #3 in tackles but that’s partly because their first two opponents just ran it up the middle against them time and time again for first down after first down.
Cornerback
1st Team: John Nestor (Minnesota)- 3 tackles, 2 INT, 2 PBU; D’Angelo Ponds (Indiana)- 7 tackles, 3 stops, 2 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PBU; La’khi Roland (Maryland)- 3 tackles, 3 stops, 1 INT
2nd Team: Josh Fussell (Northwestern)- 3 tackles, 1 stop, 3 PBU; Jacobie Henderson (Rutgers)- 3 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PBU; Jyaire Hill (Michigan)- 6 tackles, 1 TFL, 4 stops, 2 PBU
3rd Team: Dontay Joyner (Maryland)- 6 tackles, 3 stops, 1 INT, 1 PBU; Omillio Agard (Wisconsin)- 5 tackles, 2 stops, 1 INT, 1 PBU; Jamare Glasker (Maryland)- 4 tackles, 1 sack, 3 stops, 1 PBU
Props to Maryland who was my pick for last place in the conference in the preseason and have all three of their starting corners appearing on this list so far. That probably can’t come close to keeping up over the long term but the odds seem good that at least one of them will stay in all-conference contention which is still a huge development for the Terps.
Washington’s Tacario Davis was in contention for one of those 3rd team spots and would’ve have a good chance if he had played more of UW’s second game instead of getting injured in securing his diving interception.
Safety
1st Team: Bishop Fitzgerald (USC)- 13 tackles, 1 TFl, 5 stops, 1 INT, 1 PBU; Jalen Huskey (Maryland)- 17 tackles, 1 TFL, 8 stops
2nd Team: Louis Moore (Indiana)- 12 tackles, 2 TFL, 4 stops, 2 INT; Preston Zachman (Wisconsin)- 7 tackles, 1 stop; 2 INT
3rd Team: Caleb Downs (Ohio State)- 10 tackles, 1 TFL, 5 stops, 1 INT; Robert Fitzgerald (Northwestern)- 16 tackles, 8 stops
Safety was among the most loaded positions in the conference in the preseason with players who have already put up huge numbers in their careers such as Caleb Downs, Dillon Thieneman, Kamari Ramsey, Xavier Nwankpa, and Koi Perich out there. Right now I only have Downs among the top 6 but there’s plenty of time for that to change. The man on top is Ramsey’s running mate, NC State transfer Bishop Fitzgerald with yet another Maryland secondary member joining him on the first team. The second team has a pair of players averaging one interception per game.
Team Standings
- Maryland- 14 points (3 first, 1 second, 3 third)
- Wisconsin- 13 points (3 first, 1 second, 2 third)
- USC- 13 points (3 first, 2 second, 0 third))
- Illinois- 12 points (3 first, 1 second, 1 third)
- Washington- 11 points (3 first, 1 second, 0 third)
- Penn State- 10 points (1 first, 3 second, 1 third)
- Rutgers- 10 points (1 first, 3 second, 1 third)
- Iowa- 9 points (2 first, 1 second, 1 third)
- Minnesota- 8 points (1 first, 1 second, 3 third)
- Oregon- 7 points (0 first, 3 second, 1 third)
- Michigan- 6 points (3 first, 1 second, 0 third)
- Ohio State- 6 points (3 first, 1 second, 0 third)
- Indiana- 6 points (1 first, 1 second, 1 third)
- Northwestern – 4 points (0 first, 1 second, 2 third)
- Michigan State- 3 points (0 first, 0 second, 3 third)
- Nebraska- 3 points (0 first, 1 second, 1 third)
- UCLA- 2 points (0 first, 1 second, 0 third)
- Purdue- 1 point (0 first, 0 second, 1 third)