National Game of the Week: #9 Illinois @ #19 Indiana
I think Indiana deserves to be ranked higher than #19. They rank 13th in SP+, three spots ahead of Illinois. They are 6th in Net Expected Points Added/Play and first in Success Rate. They are even favored by 5.5 (obviously more than the generic 3 for home field) against a team ranked 10 spots higher. They are not a blue blood and lost a lot from last season’s CFP team. On the other hand, we might have to just acknowledge that Curt Cignetti is that damn good. He wins everywhere and builds rosters out of other teams’ scraps. I’m interested in this game because Illinois is a real test for them. The Illini might not be one of the 10 best teams in the country, but I’m confident that they’re one of the 20 best. They have held serve against the weaker part of their schedule, which has gravitationally pulled them up in the polls. They can run the ball and defend. They aren’t an exciting passing offense, but they are more than competent, which differentiates them from several other teams who have the same approach to roster building (Nebraska, Michigan, Iowa, et al. wish they had Illinois’ balance). Everyone seems to agree that Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon are currently the top three teams in the Big 10. If anyone can gate crash the CCG, it might be one of these teams, so this game is more important than it might first appear.
Also of note
- #17 Texas Tech @ #16 Utah- Two teams that looked promising on paper have answered a lot of the questions about them so far. Now, one of them has the chance to prove that they are the front-runner in the big 12. Texas Tech was top 10 in incoming transfers, HS recruiting, and returning talent. Their on-field performance has matched so far. On the other side, Devon Dampier has given the Utes the dynamic QB play they missed in those weeks, months, and years of waiting for Cam Rising to heal up.
- Florida @ #4 Miami- We have a very obvious transitive property game early in the season. USF beat Florida two weeks ago and were beaten soundly by Miami last week. So Miami should stomp Florida, right? Probably, but there’s still untapped upside on the Gators and they could pull out a stunning upset.