The biggest question facing the Seattle Seahawks heading into Week 17 was a simple one: Could they win and set up a must-win game against the 49ers for the No. 1 seed?
Both teams did their part Sunday and the showdown is set, with the Seahawks hoping that by getting revenge for a Week 1 loss to the 49ers at Lumen Field they can win the NFC West for the first time since 2020, get the top seed for the first time since 2014 and finish with a team-record 14 regular-season wins.
A lot on the line, to be sure.
Sunday’s 27-10 win at Carolina raised a few questions about the running game, Ty Okada, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and AJ Barner.
Is the running game revival for real?
You’ve never had to question the Seahawks’ commitment to running this season. They have been among the most run-heavy teams all season and have the third-highest percentage of running plays at 49.37% behind only Baltimore and Buffalo.
But for much of the season, you could question the efficiency as the Seahawks ranked near the bottom of the league in average yards per carry most of the year, usually stuck with a number beginning with 3.
That average has finally gotten into the 4s of late, this week at 4.1 yards per carry thanks to the Seahawks turning in three of their best running game performances since Nov. 9. They had 163 yards Sunday, their third-highest total of the season, an average of 4.5, which is fifth best. Four of the five best YPC averages of the season have come since Week 12.
“Yeah, it’s good,” coach Mike Macdonald said of the way the run game has been trending. “It’s right where we want to be at this point. We have to keep going. San Francisco has a good run defense and (let’s) go put a great plan together and let’s rock ‘n’ roll.”
Indeed, hoping to limit the possessions for Brock Purdy and crew would make it imperative to get the running game going against a 49ers defense that has shown vulnerability in several areas of late and is allowing 4.3 per carry, 15th in the NFL.
The Seahawks are getting good diversity in the running game of late with Kenneth Walker III rushing for 100 against the Rams on Dec. 18 and Zach Charbonnet’s first 100-yard game of the season against the Panthers with 110.
“We’ve got two really great backs, and sometimes it’s just like when sometimes when the offense needs to pick up the defense and vice versa. It could be the same thing in a position group,” Macdonald said.
Charbonnet rushed for two TDs and has 11 rushing TDs for the season, the first Seahawks running back since Marshawn Lynch in 2014 to accomplish that feat (Lynch had 14).
Is Ty Okada as big of a bargain as the Seahawks have?
The Seahawks defense has hardly missed a beat this season when Ty Okada has had to step in as a starter at safety. First for nine games in place of the injured Julian Love and Sunday in place of the injured Coby Bryant.
Okada’s open-field tackle of Rico Dowdle on the second play of the game for a loss of 2 yards set the tone for a day when the Seahawks’ open-field tackling was as good as it has been all season.
Okada played 47 of 53 snaps and finished with six tackles and helped lead a secondary that didn’t allow a gain of longer than 11 all day.
“Yeah, look, it’s remarkable, it really is,” Macdonald said of Okada’s progression this season from a player who was on and off the practice squad in his first two years to a consistent and dependable performer. “His tackling all year has been phenomenal. He’s a tough son-of-a-gun and takes great angles and trusts it.”
This isn’t the time to think about the future, but Okada’s ascent could create some decisions in the offseason. Okada, who is making $1.030 million this season, will be an exclusive rights free agent after the season, meaning the Seahawks can retain him with just a qualifying offer (likely around $1 million or so, but the numbers aren’t yet set).
Bryant can be an unrestricted free agent and ESPN has reported he and the Seahawks were not able to come to an agreement during talks before the season, and the Seahawks can anticipate a big payday to Nick Emmanwori in two years.
Is AJ Barner the tight end the Seahawks have been seeking?
You may not need reminding that the Seahawks have had only one tight end ever named to the Pro Bowl — Jimmy Graham in 2016 and 2017.
Barner might be on his way to adding another name to the list.
Barner had two of the biggest plays of Sunday’s game — a 16-yard catch in which he evaded a tackle to pick up the yards to convert a third-and-nine and set up the Charbonnet TD that put the Seahawks ahead 10-3, and a catch-and-run for a 17-yard TD on the following series.
Barner, who was a fourth-round pick out of Michigan in 2024, has 50 catches for 505 yards and six touchdowns.
Only three other tight ends in Seahawks history have had 50 or more catches in a season — Graham (who holds the team record for receptions by a tight end with 65 in 2016) and John Carlson did it twice and Noah Fant once.
The catch numbers may surprise some who billed Barner as a block-first tight end entering the league.
“I know we always felt like he could be a complete tight end in our league at an elite level, and he is on his way to being that,” Macdonald said. “So especially in this offense, to have that threat where he’s not just an extra tackle or whatever out there, that’s big time. That’s big for us.”
Where will Jaxon Smith-Njigba end up in NFL history?
For much of the year, Smith-Njigba was on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yardage record of 1,964, set in 2012 with Detroit.
Those hopes began to fade a few weeks ago, specifically when Smith-Njigba was held to 23 receiving yards against the Vikings.
Still, Smith-Njigba is guaranteed of finishing with one of the best receiving seasons in league history.
After Sunday’s game he has 1,709 yards. That’s 14th best in NFL history behind the 1,710 of Tyreek Hill of Miami in 2022.
If Smith-Njigba stays on his seasonlong pace he’ll finish with 1,816 yards. That would place him sixth all-time.
What might be the most realistic spot he can reach with a big day would be passing Julio Jones for third. Jones had 1,871 with Atlanta in 2015.
Smith-Njigba has already had the best receiving season in Seahawks history, setting records for yards and receptions (now up to 113).
One record he may not get is receiving touchdowns (he has 10), which is 14 set by Doug Baldwin in 2015. But there is one game left.