The Seattle Seahawks won 10 games in 2024 in the first season under coach Mike Macdonald and just concluded an NFL draft generally considered among the best in the league.
How good was it?
Football analyst Rene Bugner compiled 24 draft grades and computed an average for each team. The Seahawks’ draft GPA, on a scale of 4.0 being the highest, was 3.63, third in the league behind only the New England Patriots (3.67) and New York Giants (3.65), who had the third (Giants) and fourth (Patriots) overall picks.
The Seahawks’ first pick was 18.
So, adding that talent to the core of a double-digit team should mean high expectations for the Seahawks in 2025, right?
Maybe among Seahawks fans.
But not according to Vegas’ win totals for the 2025 season, those who partake in publishing “way too early” mock drafts for the 2026 season or some post-draft power ratings.
Each paint what to Seahawks’ fans might be a surprisingly pessimistic view of things.
First, Vegas.
Shortly after the draft, BetMGM released its initial list of over/unders for NFL teams for 2025. Those are numbers set to induce gamblers to bet if a team will win more or fewer games than the total.
The Seahawks’ initial number was set at 7.5, better than only seven other teams and the worst in the NFC West.
The 49ers led the way among NFC West teams at 10.5, followed by the Rams at 9.5 and Arizona at 8.5.
The only teams the Seahawks had a better number than are those who could all be charitably described as in full-rebuild mode – Cleveland at 4.5, the Giants, Jets and Titans at 5.5 and Carolina, the Raiders and Saints at 6.5.
The Seahawks are tied at 7.5 with Atlanta, Dallas, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and New England.
As for “way too early” 2026 mock drafts, a selection of those released last week almost all had the Seahawks finishing the season far out of the playoffs and set to pick in the upper half of the first round.
ESPN’s Jordan Reid had the Seahawks picking 12th and before any other NFC West team. He had Arizona at 15, the Rams at 23 and the 49ers at 27.
Longtime draft analyst Todd McShay of On3.com saw it similarly, projecting the Seahawks with the 12th pick and interestingly enough taking former UW receiver Germie Bernard, who is now at Alabama.
Pro Football Focus saw it almost the same, projecting Seahawks to have the 11th pick in 2026 with Arizona at 17, the Rams 26th and 49ers 29th.
If you want one more, CBSSports.com had the Seahawks picking 11th with Arizona at 16, the 49ers 23rd and the Rams 27th.
A couple of post-draft power rankings don’t see things all that differently.
To cite one, NFL.com’s Eric Edholm has the Rams eighth, 49ers 15th, Arizona 18th and the Seahawks again bringing up the rear of the NFC West at 19th.
So what gives?
Edholm’s comment about the Seahawks in his power ranking may provide a pretty good glimpse into the national view right now:
“Sorting through all the Seahawks’ offseason changes requires extensive flow charts, pictograms and mind maps, but Mike Macdonald’s team is going through a full reshaping. The ‘Hawks generally received pretty respectable value and return with their first half dozen selections, but the Jalen Milroe pick, in particular, added a big dash of seasoning to the mix. Sam Darnold received some pretty good reinforcements to help his chances of succeeding, but he also got pressure with Milroe’s arrival. Milroe is a good enough runner to see the field immediately, and Darnold should know he has to stack a season’s worth of strong showings to avoid losing his job long-term. Fascinating situation up there for a team that was remarkably hot and cold last season and let a playoff spot slip through its fingers.”
One could argue that the view the Seahawks have undergone a full reshaping this offseason is overstated.
The Seahawks return 10 of the 11 defensive starters from the end of last season, when they won six of their last eight in that span allowed the fourth fewest yards (304.8 per game) and fifth fewest points (18.4).
The only change to the projected starting lineup was releasing end Dre’Mont Jones and replacing him with veteran DeMarcus Lawrence, and adding fifth-round pick Rylie Mills of Notre Dame to eventually play a similar role once he recovers from an ACL injury.
The real reshaping of that side of the ball happened last season when the Seahawks swapped out both inside linebackers halfway through and replaced them with Ernest Jones IV and Tyrice Knight, then re-signed Jones to a three-year contract, a signing whose importance feels like has slipped under the national radar.
Obviously there is more change on offense with Geno Smith replaced by Darnold and receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett replaced by a mixture of veteran free agent signees Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and fifth-round pick Tory Horton.
But every other starter on offense can return aside from left guard Laken Tomlinson, who will be replaced by first-round pick Grey Zabel (in the Seahawks’ view, the offensive coaching changes will make for a vast upgrade on the line, as well).
By normal NFL standards – where usually about a third of every roster changes every season – that’s actually a lot of stability.
It is a change at the game’s most important position as well as swapping out two other big-name players.
It’s no secret that how well Darnold plays and if he can be an upgrade from Smith will heavily shape the Seahawks’ 2025 season. They have given themselves some options if injury or massive underperformance arise with the signing of Drew Lock and drafting of Milroe.
Certainly, there’s a gamble in hoping Kupp can stay healthy and productive at 32 (the age he turns in June).
There was a gamble in signing the mercurial Metcalf to a new contract through the 2029 season (the year he turns 32) with $60 million guaranteed and the fourth-highest per-year average of any receiver in the NFL as the Steelers did – a contract it appears only two teams (the Patriots and Steelers) were willing to give him.
That may be more the real issue – the Seahawks moved on from the three players who from a national perspective were their best known, creating what in their view may be the most no-name team they have had since before the LOB emerged and Russell Wilson arrived in 2012 (though it’s no fault of Leonard Williams’ that he’s not better recognized nationally).
That might be just the way the Seahawks like it.