Annually, probable team results for the upcoming season in the NFL are designated for gamblers with an “over/under” line on wins.
The rest of the analysts like to bracket that line with speculative “ceilings” and “floors,”
Traditionally, the Seattle Seahawks are underestimated nationally, as the team has won more than the preseason over/under in six of the last seven seasons.
So, it is with the confidence of an observer who is dumb enough to even attempt to predict such matters – but who is smart enough to not place actual currency on it – I’m saying this season’s 8½ O/U line is also underselling the 2025 Hawks.
I am going with 10½. Ten or 11 wins – a number that will keep them in contention for the division title, and should earn a wildcard playoff berth at worst.
Last season, the first under head coach Mike Macdonald, the 7½-win line widely underestimated the final 10-7 record.
The logic for higher expectations in 2025:
The quality of this defense, alone, puts this team at an 8½-win floor, even if the offense struggles.
Forget the total defensive statistics of last season, when the team was absorbing the Macdonald scheme, and when serious manpower changes near midseason were needed to reverse a distressing downward skid.
In the last eight games, the revived Seattle defense ranked fourth in the NFL in yards allowed and fifth in points per game (18.4). With newly acquired Ernest Jones IV plugged in at middle linebacker, the Hawks trimmed an average of 50 yards off opponent rushing per game.
On the defensive front, Leonard Williams was freed to make 8½ sacks in the last seven games.
And on the back end, corner Devon Witherspoon again played at Pro Bowl caliber, which seems to be rising, potentially, toward All-Pro level in his third season.
All these players have now had an off-season and training camp to further adapt and internalize the Macdonald scheme. They’re all back, with the addition of promising second-round rookie safety Nick Emmanwori.
While the defense should keep the Hawks in every game this season, it will be the offense that will determine how high the “ceiling” can be.
If, under the guidance of new quarterback Sam Darnold, they will have enough juice to swing the outcome of the half dozen or so pick-‘em games on the schedule, their level of contention will rise.
Darnold was the third overall pick in the 2018 draft, but his inconsistency over seven seasons with four teams has brought him to Seattle to replace departed QB Geno Smith, who was traded to Las Vegas.
The dubious suggest Darnold’s 2024 success (more than 4,000 passing yards and 35 TDs with the Vikings) was a fluke, and he represents a net loss from Smith’s production.
The absence of veteran receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett adds to the concerns over the passing game.
Others contend that the churn in the receivers’ room will open the way for greater focus on Jaxon Smith-Njgiba, with the addition of Cooper Kupp providing veteran leadership.
Rookie second-rounder Elijah Arroyo, meanwhile, has a tight end’s size with a wide-out’s range and routes, and could be a handy tool to exploit in new coordinator Klint Kubiak’s arsenal.
Further mitigating worries over Darnold are the much-publicized promises from Macdonald that the 2025 Seahawks are going to have a far greater focus on running the football.
A return to health of back Kenneth Walker III will boost that approach, as will the expected use of rookie fullback Robbie Ouzts as a lead blocker.
Even more effectively facilitating the rushing attack is an offensive line that should be much improved by the addition of first-round rookie guard Grey Zabel, and the healthy return of veteran right tackle Abe Lucas.
Surely, to look forward at the 2025 prospects requires examining the holes that left the 2024 team out of the playoffs.
Pretty simple to find a single glaring example. In the Nov. 3 overtime loss to the Rams, at home, the visitors drove for a touchdown after the Seahawks twice failed to pick up a yard, in the Red Zone, with runs up the middle.
All they needed was 1 yard to get another set of downs at the Rams’ 16. If you’re going to make yourself into a playoff team, you have to be able to get 1 yard on two carries. Get that yard, and they have a much better chance of making the postseason.
Macdonald knows that, of course, so does GM John Schneider. So, they drafted Zabel to run behind, and the powerful Ouzts for additional blocking. They brought in a new coordinator in Kubiak.
That the failure came at Lumen Field was further embarrassment, as Seattle won only three of nine games there last season.
For all the talk of ceilings and floors this season, the reality is that you can build the house, but if you can’t win there, it simply isn’t a home.