SEATTLE – Any time the Seahawks might have been tempted to feel too good about themselves in the wake of last Sunday’s win at Pittsburgh, all they had to do was think about one stat – 3-7.
That’s Seattle’s home record since the start of the 2024 season, when coach Mike Macdonald arrived as the successor to Pete Carroll.
Even more telling is a 1-7 record in the Seahawks’ past eight games at Lumen Field after they began the 2024 season with home wins against Denver and Miami.
The home drought began with a 29-20 loss to the Giants last Oct. 6 when the Seahawks were a seven-point favorite.
Believe it or not, they have not been favored in any of their seven home games since, though their game against Arizona last November – which Seattle won 16-6 – was a pick’em.
The Seahawks have lost every home game when favored since defeating Miami 24-3 last Sept. 22 at Lumen Field as 41/2-point favorites.
So maybe their baffling home skid is easily explained.
That’ll become clearer Sunday when the Seahawks host New Orleans. The Saints are 0-2 under rookie coach Kellen Moore – a Prosser native and former Boise State standout QB – and are 71/2-point underdogs.
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup:
Saints at Seahawks
When, where: 1:05 p.m. Sunday, Lumen Field in Seattle.
TV: CBS. Andrew Catalon (play by play), Charles Davis (analyst), Jason McCourty (analyst), AJ Ross (sidelines).
Most recent game in series: The Saints beat the Seahawks 39-32 on Oct. 9, 2022 in New Orleans. The Saints lead the series 10-6, having won the past four in a row dating to a 34-7 Seattle win on Dec. 2, 2013 at Lumen Field. The Seahawks also beat the Saints at home in a divisional playoff game that season.
Point spread: Seahawks by 7½ points (via VegasInsider).
Key injuries: The Seahawks may be without three key players in their secondary as safeties Julian Love (hamstring) and Nick Emmanwori (ankle) and cornerback Devon Witherspoon (knee) are listed as doubtful on the injury report. Also doubtful is running back Zach Charbonnet (foot). Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba was listed as questionable with an illness. The Saints listed left guard Dillon Radunz (toe) as out. He had been filling in for Trevor Penning, who has been out because of a toe injury but is expected to play.
Last week’s games: The Seahawks beat the Steelers 31-17 in Pittsburgh to improve to 1-1, and the Saints lost 26-21 to the 49ers in New Orleans to fall to 0-2.
The big story: Can the Seahawks stop their home struggles, get to 2-1 and keep pace in the NFC West?
A win could put Seattle right back among the leaders in the conference. The 2-0 Rams are a 3.5-point underdog at Philadelphia, and the 49ers and Cardinals – also 2-0 – face off in Santa Clara, Calif.
Key matchup
Seahawks defense vs. Saints running back Alvin Kamara: Kamara, 30, has been a Seahawks killer since entering the NFL in 2017.
As detailed by NFL.com this week, Kamara has averaged 178.0 yards from scrimmage (rushing and receiving) in three career games vs the Seahawks, all New Orleans wins. That’s the third-most by any player vs. an opponent in the Super Bowl era (minimum of three games).
Kamara is coming off a big game against the 49ers when he had 99 yards rushing on 21 carries and six receptions for 21 yards.
The Seahawks have had issues handling backs when they catch passes. The Steelers’ Jaylen Warren took a short pass for a 65-yard gain last week.
And now they might have to play without three-fifths of their projected starting secondary in Love, Witherspoon and Emmanwori.
Expect the Saints to try to exploit those absences and force fill-in players such as nickel Derion Kendrick and safeties Ty Okada – who likely would start alongside Coby Bryant if Love can’t play – and D’Anthony Bell (who likely would be elevated off the practice squad) to make tackles in one-on-one situations.
Key player
Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III: With Charbonnet probably sidelined, the Seahawks will have to rely even more on Walker. He is coming off his best game in a calendar year with 105 yards at Pittsburgh and emerged healthy, practicing fully all week.
Second-year player George Holani moves up to backup status if Charbonnet can’t go and could see the first significant offensive playing time of his career. He has three carries for 10 yards in his career, all coming late in a blowout loss to the Packers.
Key stat
First-quarter scoring: One issue for the Seahawks at home last season was scoring early. They averaged just three points per game in the first quarter at home, tied for 24th in the NFL. They also fell behind 7-0 in the first quarter against the 49ers in Week 1.
The Seahawks appear more talented than the Saints and should be able to get ahead and stay ahead. If not …
Key quote
“I think that ‘Any Given Sunday’ quote is something that’s just so real and believable in this league,” Seahawks defensive lineman Leonard Williams said about potentially overlooking the Saints. “Literally any week, any team can win. So, you never want to overlook a team. … It’s like we literally have to prepare every Wednesday the same, every Thursday the same, every Friday the same. I think that’s what will take us to that next level.”
Other things to watch
Can a banged-up secondary do it again? The Seahawks held the Steelers and QB Aaron Rodgers to 203 yards passing last week – 65 on one play – despite being without Emmanwori and Witherspoon. Now they may also be without Love, who is the steadying veteran presence in the back end. They adjusted last week by calling a conservative plan, relying on a four-man rush to get pressure to allow for more defenders in the back end. They may have to use a similar strategy against the Saints.
Can the Seahawks play a turnover-free game? Though the Seahawks are tied for third with four turnovers forced, they also are tied for fifth in turnovers lost with four. It hardly needs to be stated that the easiest way to keep an underdog in a game is to turn the ball over. Two turnovers again could spell trouble.
Can the Seahawks rattle Spencer Rattler? Second-year player Spencer Rattler was the surprise winner of New Orleans’ quarterback battle over rookie second-round pick Tyler Shough. Rattler is 0-8 as a starter but played one of his best statistical games last week, going 25 of 34 for 207 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the 49ers. He also has run effectively, with 43 yards on eight carries, and hasn’t lost a turnover this season. The Seahawks need to change that last stat.
Prediction
Seahawks 27, Saints 13: The home-field hex hanging over the Seahawks can last only so long, and a rebuilding Saints team is the perfect squad against which to end it. Macdonald has the defense playing well despite some injuries, and this should be a good matchup for the offense to have a solid day