SEATTLE – What feels like the opening act to the main event for the Seahawks is just about over.
After Sunday’s visit to Atlanta, the Seahawks play a final four games that figure to determine not only if they can win the NFC West, but also get the top seed in the conference and home-field advantage through the playoffs.
But before that quartet of games against the Colts (8-4), Rams (9-3), Panthers (7-6) and 49ers (9-4), comes the work that must be done Sunday against a 4-8 Falcons squad in the midst of one of the more disappointing seasons in the league.
Atlanta had high hopes entering the 2025 season, the second year for head coach Raheem Morris – who was also a candidate for the Seahawks job in 2024 that instead went to Mike Macdonald – and quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the former UW standout.
Penix, though, is out for the year with an ACL tear suffered in a Nov. 16 loss to Carolina. That was one of four defeats the Falcons endured under Penix, either in overtime or by a field goal or less.
Veteran Kirk Cousins, who surprisingly remained as the backup this season, was restored to starter status with Penix sidelined.
But the Falcons are just 1-2 in his starts (1-1 since Penix was lost for the year), including an upset defeat to the Jets last Sunday in which New York scored 10 points in the final 1:53.
Atlanta was picked as a 1.5-point favorite when this game was originally scheduled in the spring. Now, Seattle is a seven-point favorite in a contest the Seahawks simply have to win to keep pace in the NFC and set themselves up well for the pivotal homestretch.
Seahawks players this week stressed there is no peeking ahead.
“They have drive and want to, so just like every week, we’re never going to overlook (a) team,’’ said defensive lineman Leonard Williams. “They’ve got a lot of weapons over there.”
Let’s take closer look at the matchup.
When, where: 10 a.m., Sunday, Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
TV: Fox 28, Kevin Kugler (play-by-play), Daryl Johnston (analyst), Allison Williams (sidelines).
Most recent game in series: The Seahawks have fresh memories of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, beating the Falcons there 34-14 on Oct. 20, 2024. The win kicked off a 7-4 stretch to end the season. Seattle leads the all-time series 13-7.
Point spread: Seahawks by 7.
Key injuries: The Seahawks have no significant injury uncertainty heading into the game with everyone on the 53-man roster considered good to go.
Most notable for the Falcons is that leading receiver Drake London is going to miss his third straight game with a knee injury. London has 60 catches for 810 yards this season. No other Falcon listed as a receiver has more than 21 receptions.
Last week’s games: The Seahawks improved to 9-3 with a 26-0 win over the Vikings at home, Seattle’s first shutout since 2015. The Falcons fell to 4-8 when Jets’ kicker Nick Folk nailed a 56-yarder as time ran out to give New York a 27-24 win.
The big story: Can the Seahawks avoid the upset bug and possibly move into first place by themselves in the NFC West?
Seattle enters the weekend in a tie with the Rams atop the NFC West at 9-3, each just ahead of the 9-4 49ers. If Seattle can beat the Falcons they can then fly home and hope that the Rams might stumble on the road for a second straight week as they play at Arizona.
With the 49ers on their bye week, a Seattle win and LA loss would put the Seahawks in first place by themselves for the first time all season.
But a Seattle upset loss combined with a Rams win would mean the Seahawks falling into what would technically be third place in the division due to the 49ers holding the head-to-head tiebreaker on the Seahawks.
Key matchup: Seattle’s defensive line against Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins.
Seattle is more-than-familiar with Cousins, who started for Atlanta against the Seahawks last year. That loss dropped his career record against Seattle to 2-5.
Cousins is now 37 and statistically more vulnerable than ever to pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, “since returning to the lineup in Week 11, Cousins has completed just 28% of his passes under pressure, tied for the lowest mark among all quarterbacks. He has been far more effective from a clean pocket, posting a 73% completion rate in those situations, the ninth-highest in the league over that span.’’
So the key seems simple enough – don’t give Cousins any time and force him into some mistakes, such as the two picks he threw against Seattle last season.
London’s absence also means Cousins will again be without his top outside receiving threat and will have to rely on throwing to tight end Kyle Pitts (56 receptions for 541 yards) and running back Bijan Robinson (54-594).
Key player: Quarterback Sam Darnold
Darnold has lost just one turnover the last two games after throwing four picks against the Rams on Nov. 16.
But he’s hardly played clean. He threw three passes against the Titans on Nov. 23 that could have been picked off and he fumbled twice against the Vikings, losing one.
To be fair, he was under a lot of duress from a Vikings defense that blitzed 60% of the time. But the Falcons also like to blitz a lot – 35.8% of snaps, according to Pro Football Reference. The Seahawks are going to have to be better protecting Darnold than they were early on last week.
“Overall communication is the biggest thing,’’ Darnold said this week. “Making sure we’re all on the same page, especially in a loud environment being on the road, we’ve just got to continue to improve that and go on from there.”
Key stat: 12-2.
That’s Seattle’s road record under Macdonald, which includes the blowout win at Atlanta a year ago. Seattle’s only two road losses under Macdonald are at Detroit early last season, 42-29, and at the Rams last month, 21-19.
Seattle is 5-1 on the road this season, outscoring its foes a combined 161-108.
Seattle is also 22-5 in its last 27 10 a.m. starts, including 3-0 this season and 6-0 under Macdonald.
Key questions:
Can Jaxon Smith-Njigba get back on a record-setting pace?
Smith-Njigba was held to season lows of two receptions for 23 yards by the Vikings, who often had him covered with a corner as well as a safety over the top. Minnesota’s pressure also meant Darnold didn’t have much time to let JSN get open deep.
Atlanta figures to try to get their best corner, A.J. Terrell, defending JSN as often as possible. Via PFF, Terrell has allowed the fifth-fewest yards of corners who have played 264 or more snaps this season.
Can the Seahawks get the running game going a little earlier?
Seattle’s much-scrutinized running game is showing some signs of life, averaging 143 yards per outing the last four games, boosting the season average to 116.9.
But the last two weeks it’s taken a little while to get going as Seattle had 86 yards on 24 carries combined in the first halves against the Titans and Vikings.
Getting a bit more out of the running attack earlier in the game would be a good way to stave off an upset bid by the Falcons.
Prediction
Sure, any road game can be tricky and someday the Seahawks will get upset, as eventually happens to everybody in the NFL. But this just doesn’t feel like that game, as the Seahawks have most of the key statistical edges and are pretty healthy for this time of year. As long as the Seahawks OL can keep the Atlanta front seven from disrupting the game too much and causing a turnover or two, the Seahawks should win this with relative comfort.
Seahawks 24, Falcons 9