The atmosphere Saturday night, the Seattle Seahawks hope, will be like something few of them have ever experienced.
But the rest of the week, the Seahawks insisted, they had to treat like just another day.
“You start making it bigger and you start including all the other stuff out there, that takes you away from how we want to play and how we want to operate,” Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said of preparing for Saturday’s division-round playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers. “That’s how we approach it.”
It’s an approach that’s gotten them not only this far, but made this game the biggest the Seahawks have played in years. Seattle hasn’t had a home playoff game since a wild-card contest on Jan. 9, 2021 against the L.A. Rams. They haven’t had a home playoff game in front of fans since Jan. 7, 2017 against Detroit.
And they haven’t had this kind of opportunity – to win two home games and advance to the Super Bowl – since 2014.
Then, they got the job done, beating the Panthers and then Packers to advance to their second straight Super Bowl.
They are 0-3 in divisional-round playoff games since and just 3-6 in the postseason overall.
Assuming quarterback Sam Darnold’s oblique injury is not significant, the Seahawks are also healthy and rested, especially compared to the 49ers, who won at Philadelphia last Sunday afternoon to advance.
They know this is rarefied air. They are just trying not to think about that much.
“We are close,” linebacker Ernest Jones IV said this week. “We’re close to something that a lot of people don’t get a chance to do. But if you start thinking about that game or that opportunity, you miss out on the good moments you’ll have as you’re going through this process. But ultimately it takes one game at a time. We’ve got to handle San Fran first and then whoever they send next to us so we can get to the ultimate goal.”
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup:
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
When, where: 5 p.m. Saturday, Lumen Field.
TV: FOX Kevin Burkhardt (play-by-play), Tom Brady (analyst), Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi (sidelines).
Most recent game in series: You don’t have to go back far. The Seahawks beat the 49ers 13-3 in Santa Clara on Jan. 3 to clinch the NFC West and No. 1 seed, earning home-field for this game and the playoffs.
Point spread: Seahawks favored by 7.5.
Key injuries: For Seattle, quarterback Sam Darnold was listed as questionable with an oblique injury but said Thursday he’ll play. Backup OL Josh Jones (knee) is also out. Everyone else on the 53-man roster is good to go.
For the 49ers, safety Ji’Ayir Brown (hamstring) and linebacker Fred Warner (ankle) are out. Receivers Ricky Pearsall (knee) and Jacob Cowing (hamstring) and linebackers Dee Winters (ankle) and Luke Gifford (quad) are questionable.
Last week’s games: The Seahawks were off. The 49ers beat the Eagles in Philadelphia, 23-19, in a wild-card game to advance.
The big story: Can the Seahawks replicate the formula that beat the 49ers two weeks ago?
Only once in their history have the Seahawks played the same opponent in consecutive games and not since 1991 (Chargers in regular season, with a bye in between, each team winning at home).
That the 49ers have had a game in between changes the equation some. Beating Philly on the road also likely has revived the 49ers’ confidence. Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said this week there is a “99.999% chance’’ this game unfolds differently than the one two weeks ago. Still, the way the Seahawks ran the ball (180 yards) and played defense were far from a fluke.
Key matchup: Seattle coach Mike Macdonald against 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers made clear they were happy to get another shot at the Seahawks. The person who may have wanted one the most is Shanahan. The 49ers scored 36 in a win in Seattle on Oct. 10, 2024 in the first game between Shanahan – who calls San Francisco’s offensive plays – and Macdonald (who call’s Seattle’s defense) as head coaches. The 49ers have scored just 17, 17 and three points in three games against Seattle since then. And the 49ers’ 173 yards two weeks ago was 50 fewer than any other game this year.
Simply put, the Seahawks’ defense seemed to have an answer to everything the 49ers threw at them in that game. Expect Shanahan to have spent every waking moment this week trying to find anything to catch Seattle’s D off guard.
Key player: Quarterback Sam Darnold
Early on, the spotlight will be on Darnold to see if the oblique injury affects him in any way. Assuming he’s OK, then the spotlight shifts to football concerns, and specifically whether Darnold can avoid the big turnover and make the big plays when needed.
As the Associated Press noted this week, only one player in at least the last 35 years has led the NFL in turnovers and also led his team to a Super Bowl title – Eli Manning with the Giants in 2007. Darnold had 20 this year to lead the NFL and will try to pull off the same feat. Not adding to the turnover total will be the best way to do it.
Key stat: Turnover margin
Macdonald said this week there’s a danger in overthinking things when it comes to the playoffs and the oddity of playing the 49ers in consecutive games. So we’ll try to avoid it as well and go with one of the most obvious keys to any game, but also always as big of a key as there is – turnovers.
And this isn’t just a Darnold stat. The Seahawks became much better at forcing turnovers as the year wore on – 12 of their 25 for the year were forced in the seven-game winning streak to end the season. After scoring just six points off turnovers in the first seven games of the season, they scored 79 in the last 10. And for all the talk of Darnold’s turnovers, 49ers QB Brock Purdy threw 10 interceptions in just nine games this season. Seattle was minus-five in TO margin in three losses this season, plus-eight otherwise. It may be just that simple.
Two other things to watch
Can the Seahawks defensive front again dominate the game? One of the big keys to Seattle’s defensive success all year was being able to stop the run and get consistent pressure often using just a four-man front. Seattle blitzed Purdy just six times in the game two weeks ago yet got pressure on him on 46.9% of his dropbacks, via Pro Football Focus.
Seattle also held running back Christian McCaffrey to a season-low 23 yards on eight carries with its front getting a consistent push. The 49ers, though, will have 12-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams back for this game. Williams may now be 37 but is still regarded as the team’s best run blocker.
Can Jason Myers rebound? Myers, whose 171 points this season are the third most in NFL history, had a rare off day two weeks ago with two misses of makable field goals (47 and 26 yards) and also missed the landing zone on a kickoff to give the 49ers the ball at the 40. It’s the only time all year he missed more than one field goal in a game. The obvious hope – if not expectation – is that’s now out of the way.
Prediction
Seahawks 19, 49ers 10: Shanahan is sure to have something new to throw at Macdonald, and likely early in the game to try to establish this game won’t be like the one two weeks ago. But if the Seahawks can weather that without much damage, and play relatively mistake free, there’s no reason the Seahawks can’t win and cover. The 49ers have admirably fought through injuries to get this far. But the Seahawks as currently constructed are simply better.