SEATTLE – Sunday’s Seahawks-Vikings game is proof that you just never know how an NFL schedule will unfold.
When the schedules were released in the spring, Sunday’s matchup with Minnesota looked like one of the marquee games for Seattle. And that’s not just for the subplot of quarterback Sam Darnold facing the team that let him go in the offseason.
The Vikings were coming off a 14-3 season and despite their QB switch to J.J. McCarthy figured to be a Super Bowl contender.
Instead, McCarthy’s struggles to stay healthy and produce are large reasons the Vikings are among the NFL’s most disappointing teams at 4-7. And now they are forced to start undrafted rookie Max Brosmer because of an injury to McCarthy. It will be Brosmer’s first significant NFL action.
Brosmer has thrown just eight passes in three games this season in 19 snaps.
Add it up, and the Seahawks entered the weekend as 11½-point favorites.
They have been favored by 11½ or more points just 28 times in franchise history, according to Pro Football Reference.
One came last week, when the Seahawks finished as 12-point favorites at Tennessee. The Seahawks didn’t cover the spread, allowing the Titans to score two touchdowns late before winning 30-24.
The previous time the Seahawks were favored by 111/2 points or more came late in the 2020 season when they were 161/2-point favorites at home against a New York Jets team that was 0-12.
The Jets’ quarterback that day was none other than Darnold. He battled injuries in his last year with the Jets and played just 12 games, and the Seahawks won 40-3.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Seahawks are 27-1 all-time when favored by 11½ points or more, the only loss coming at home in 2015 when the ever-pesky Rams upset the Seahawks 27-13 as 12-point underdogs.
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.
Most recent game in series: The Vikings, with Darnold playing the hero, defeated the Seahawks 27-24 at Lumen Field on Dec. 22. Darnold threw three touchdown passes, including a go-ahead 39-yarder to Justin Jefferson with 3:51 remaining. The Seahawks lead the series 12-7.
Key injuries: The only injury question for the Seahawks is whether safety Ty Okada will play after hurting an oblique last week. He is listed as questionable and considered a game-time decision. The Seahawks on Saturday elevated veteran Quandre Diggs – signed Wednesday as depth at safety – from the practice squad, so he’ll be available if needed. D’Anthony Bell, though, appears likely to start if Okada can’t play.
The Vikings on Friday declared McCarthy out because of a concussion. The Vikings also declared starting left guard Donovan Jackson, a first-round draft pick last spring, out because of an ankle injury. Blake Brandel, a fifth-year vet who has 29 career starts, is likely to take his place.
Last week’s games: The Seahawks improved to 8-3 with a 30-24 win at Tennessee, and the Vikings fell to 4-7 with a 23-6 loss at Green Bay.
The big story: Can Darnold prove again to the Vikings that they made a mistake in letting him go? As would be expected, Darnold tried to keep the focus on his current team and not his former one when he met the media this week.
But Darnold would be only human if he didn’t want to show the Vikings what they are missing.
Still, he is right to keep the focus on his current job. Darnold is just a game removed from throwing four interceptions against the Rams and was fortunate that the Titans couldn’t hang on to a couple of possible picks last week.
Darnold is still tied for fourth in the NFL in interceptions with 10.
Another clean game – and moving farther down that list – would be a good sign as the Seahawks hit the stretch run.
Key matchup: Seahawks defensive line vs. Vikings offensive line. Brosmer’s scouting reports come with some variation of noting that he has a calm personality and doesn’t get rattled easy.
Still, any rookie QB making his first start on the road is facing a stiff challenge, especially going against a defense that is one of the NFL’s best.
The Seahawks don’t often bring more than four pass rushers. But maybe they will send more early against the Vikings to see how ready Brosmer is for the big stage.
The Vikings have the NFL’s fourth highest-paid offensive line at just over $60 million this season. But it has underperformed and will be without Jackson and possibly starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who is listed as questionable because of knee and foot injuries. His backup is Justin Skule, who has 21 starts in a career dating to 2019.
The Seahawks defensive line continues to play well up front, especially second-year man Byron Murphy II, who had one of the best games of his career last week and is beginning to earn Pro Bowl consideration. Murphy is tied with veteran Leonard Williams for the team lead with six sacks.
Key player: Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba continues to astound, coming off the second-highest receiving yardage game of his career against the Titans with 167. That allowed him to break DK Metcalf’s team season receiving record with six games remaining.
Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 1,313 receiving yards, a hefty edge on Dallas’ George Pickens, who has 1,142 after Thursday’s game against the Chiefs.
The Vikings have allowed the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL but are 16th in yards per attempt allowed at 6.1. That’s due in part to the aggressive nature of defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who likes to bring a lot of pressure and leave defensive backs in man-on-man situations.
That could be a dicey strategy against Smith-Njigba.
Key stat: 21-20. This is another week when what is one of the most obvious keys in any game is hard to ignore.
The Vikings have lost the most turnovers in the NFL – 21, with 15 interceptions and six fumbles – and the Seahawks are next at 20 (11 interceptions, nine lost fumbles).
The Vikings are also 31st in turnover differential at minus-12 while the Seahawks are 28th at minus-seven.
Turnovers flat-out cost the Seahawks the Rams game – and ownership of the NFC’s best record – and they could cost them Sunday.
Two other key questions: Can the Seahawks overcome another injury in their secondary? Coach Mike Macdonald has done a masterful job of managing a revolving door of players in the secondary. He might have to do so again Sunday with Okada questionable. As noted earlier, Bell would appear likely to get the start if Okada can’t play but Diggs is also available if needed.
Bell got his feet wet by stepping in for Okada for the second half last week and should be readier now. The secondary, though, will be tested greatly by Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, a four-time Pro Bowler who is ninth in receiving yards with 795.
Will Kenneth Walker III again show he deserves more opportunities? Walker played his highest snap count of the season last Sunday against the Titans with 62.5%. The way the game went meant he got only 11 carries. But he turned those into 71 yards, an average of 6.5 per attempt that was his third-best of the season.
The Vikings are allowing just 4.0 per rush, 12th in the NFL, so yards might be tough to come by. But expect Walker to again get the bulk of the work with Zach Charbonnet used more in two-minute/third-down situations.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Vikings 13. Darnold downplayed it during the week, but you have to figure he wants to show something to the Vikings. The Seahawks defense also spent the week ruing what it felt was a subpar performance against Tennessee. Going against a rookie QB making his first start could be the perfect recipe for a dominating win.