
As the Seattle Seahawks inch closer and closer towards reporting for training camp, fans continue to lament that the quarterback position is occupied by Geno Smith, Drew Lock and Jacob Eason, and many would rather see competition added at the spot. However, with just two weeks until the Hawks report for camp, it appears less and less likely that the team will do so, as all indications seem to be that the team is content with the personnel it has at the position.
Sunday here at Field Gulls I took a look at how Garnder Minshew’s college production stacked up against that of other quarterbacks who played in the same system in college, and how the fact that his production was indistinguishable form those other quarterbacks did not likely bode well for his future as a quarterback in the NFL.
Readers, of course, loved the post and had great feedback such as T-Town B who stated the following:
Let’s ignore his NFL production with an absolute disaster of a franchise… Greg Lewis, and Beno Bryant were stud running backs in a long line of stud running backs for UW, ergo writer’s logic: Corey Dillon and Napoleon Kauffman should garner no attention. Don James’ system made them good, they’re not individual humans with separate capabilities unto their own… This is the worst article I have read on this site. (Full stop)
First things first, I assure you I have written way, way worse posts on this site in the past. (Full stop) That said, the ability of a system to elevate a player is the EXACT takeaway that the post was intended to generate, except many readers seem to be ignoring the very facts they are trying to argue. So, to further illustrate, here’s a look at the leading rusher for the University of Washington by season during the 1980s and 1990s, without names listed:
1980: 148 attempts, 706 yards, 4.8 ypc, 7 TD
1981: 159 attempts, 623 yards, 3.9 ypc, 4 TD
1982: 222 attempts, 926 yards, 4.2 ypc, 7 TD
1983: 159 attempts, 862 yards, 5.2 ypc, 5 TD
1984: 195 attempts, 901 yards, 4.6 ypc, 13 TD
1985: 104 attempts, 497 yards, 4.8 ypc, 5 TD
1986: 160 attempts, 880 yards, 5.5 ypc, 4 TD
1987: 146 attempts, 682 yards, 4.7 ypc, 2 TD
1988: 138 attempts, 691 yards, 5.0 ypc, 4 TD
1989: 239 attempts, 1100 yards, 4.6 ypc, 10 TD
1990: 227 attempts, 1,279 yards, 5.6 ypc, 8 TD
1991: 158 attempts, 943 yards, 6.0 ypc, 8 TD
1992: 162 attempts, 1,045 yards, 6.5 ypc, 6 TD
1993: 226 attempts, 1,299 yards, 5.7 ypc, 14 TD
1994: 255 attempts, 1,390 yards, 5.5 ypc, 9 TD
1995: 166 attempts, 957 yards, 5.8 ypc, 15 TD
1996: 271 attempts, 1,555 yards, 5.7 ypc, 22 TD
1997: 139 attempts, 862 yards, 6.2 ypc, 8 TD
1998: 149 attempts, 538 yards, 3.6 ypc, 4 TD
1999: 126 attempts, 546 yards, 4.3 ypc, 5 TD
It’s not hard to find the seasons which were Dillon and Kaufman. From there it’s not hard to identify the outlier of the bunch who went on to have the best NFL career based on nothing more than the college stats from so long ago.
Now, Don James and Huskies running backs from the Cold War era wasn’t the data set that had been planned for this follow up, but thanks to the invitation, it’s certainly a nice little bonus. It demonstrates to perfection the type of outlier separation that is typically seen when a player is able to so outperform the standards of a system to make it seem likely they be a difference maker at the next level. However, for those who don’t want to miss out on the data set that had been planned, here it is in all it’s glory, the production from the quarterback position at the University of Wisconsin under Bret Bielema:
2006: 158 of 268, 59.0% completion percentage, 2,185 yards, 17 TD, 6 INT, 143.9 rating
2007: 193 of 333, 58.0% completion percentage, 2,607 yards, 17 TD, 11 INT, 134.0 rating
2008: 104 of 191, 54.5% completion percentage, 1,389 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT, 120.7 rating
2009: 211 of 328, 64.3% completion percentage, 2,705 yards, 16 TD, 11 INT, 143.0 rating
2010: 194 of 266, 72.9% completion percentage, 2,459 yards, 16 TD, 6 INT, 165.9 rating
2011: 225 of 309, 72.8% completion percentage, 3,175 yards, 33 TD, 4 INT, 191.8 rating
2012: 70 of 119, 58.8% completion percentage, 1,104 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT, 148.3 rating
It doesn’t take a PhD in spottingoulierology to figure out which of those seasons is Russell Wilson and which of the other six are not. Players who will be phenomenal in the NFL have a tendency to outperform the system in which they play in college. That is the type of outlier that doesn’t exist when looking at the production of the quarterbacks who have played for Mike Leach over the past couple of decades.
- 479 of 712 (67.3% completion), 5,017 yards, 7.0 Y/A, 45 TD, 13 INT and a 143.7 rating
- 470 of 719 (65.4% completion), 5,833 yards, 8.1 Y/A, 52 TD, 22 INT and a 151.3 rating
- 421 of 642 (65.6% completion), 4,742 yards, 7.4 Y/A, 32 TD, 18 INT and a 138.5 rating
- 442 of 626 (70.6% completion), 5,111 yards, 8.2 Y/A, 45 TD, 9 INT and a 160.0 rating
- 412 of 617 (66.8% completion), 4,555 yards, 7.4 Y/A, 38 TD, 11 INT and a 145.5 rating
- 447 of 644 (69.4% completion), 4,561 yards, 7.1 Y/A, 38 TD, 8 INT and a 145.9 rating
- 443 of 633 (70.0% completion), 4,468 yards, 7.1 Y/A, 38 TD, 11 INT and a 145.6 rating
- 468 of 662 (70.7% completion), 4,779 yards, 7.2 Y/A, 38 TD, 9 INT and a 147.6 rating
- 512 of 713 (71.8% completion), 5,705 yards, 8.0 Y/A, 48 TD, 14 INT and a 157.3 rating
- 369 of 518 (71.2% completion), 4,205 yards, 8.1 Y/A, 42 TD, 6 INT and a 163.9 rating
But, since analysis based on Minshew’s NFL production is what readers want and have demanded, that’s what they’ll get. Thus, turning to comparisons for early career production based on the numbers he has posted through three seasons in the NFL, here’s a look at Minshew’s production compared to the production of other NFL quarterbacks. The sample is pulled from the past three decades (1992 to present) for quarterbacks who had a similar number of pass attempts during their first three seasons. To this point in his NFL career, Minshew had attempted 857 passes, so taking a sample of those with between 757 attempts and 957 attempts in their first three seasons since 1992 yields the following names:
- Kurt Warner
- Lamar Jackson
- Nick Foles
- Mark Brunell
- Daunte Culpepper
- Chad Henne
- Derek Anderson
- Teddy Bridgewater
- Craig Erickson
- Jeff Blake
- Gardner Minshew
- Quincy Carter
- Geno Smith
- Brian Griese
- Trevor Siemian
- Drew Brees
- Trent Edwards
- Brandon Weeden
- Patrick Ramsey
- Kyle Orton
- Vince Young
- Alex Smith
- Blaine Gabbert
It’s certainly an interesting group of names, with some names that are undoubtedly reason for excitement, specifically Warner, Brees, Culpepper and others. However, these players came to be on the list through very different circumstances. Some, such as Minshew and Bridgewater were asked to start right away as rookies, while others like Warner and Brees sat the bench and learned as rookies. So, the two groups are split up and presented separately. The first group is the group that was given the chance to sit and learn as rookies, which for the purposes of this analysis means 100 or fewer pass attempts during their rookie season.
The reason for separating the two groups is that there is a significant difference between quarterbacks who started as rookies and then posted comparable production over the subsequent two seasons when compared to those who started as rookies and then saw their playing time decrease. Specifically, quarterbacks who sat as rookies would obviously post the majority of the production during their second and third seasons, while quarterbacks who started as rookies and posted significant production would have then seen a reduction in playing time going forward. Thus, here is the list of the quarterbacks with the qualifying attempts who saw significant playing time during their rookie seasons.
Long story short, there’s no doubt that Minshew has the best TD:INT ratio of the bunch, but while TD:INT ratio is explanatory, it’s not predictive. That helps explain why Aaron Rodgers can consistently be at or near the top of the league for TD:INT ratio, but the Green Bay Packers are consistently not anywhere near the Super Bowl.
In any case, if TD:INT ratio isn’t predictive, which quarterback stats are predictive? Among the most predictive quarterback stats is QBR, which is based on EPA. EPA, of course, takes into account a ton of context, assigning more value to a two yard run on 3rd & 1 than to a nine yard run on 3rd & 10 and so on. So, keeping that in mind, here are the QBR for each of Minshew and Smith for their first three seasons in the NFL:
- Rookie Year: 44.6 / 41.0
- Second Year: 44.0 / 45.9
- Third Year: 60.6 / 56.9
Putting it all together, while many fans likely won’t want to hear it, the comps between Minshew and Smith extend far beyond simply posting comparable college numbers before entering the NFL and putting up a QBRs that are eerily similar during their first three season. Not only were both starters as rookies who were unable to maintain their hold on the starting job, they saw a coaching change prior to year three lead to a material reduction in playing time. For Smith it was a reduction in playing time that saw him start just two games over the subsequent six seasons, while the future is still up in the air for Minshew.
What isn’t up in the air, though, is that the Seahawks aren’t trading for Minshew because they’ve already got their own version on the roster.