How close are the Seahawks to the playoffs after Sunday’s closer-than-comfort 18-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts? How does the NFC West shape up now with the Seahawks and Rams set for the biggest game of the year for either team Thursday?
Let’s address those questions and more.
The Seahawks are almost in the playoffs, right?
Yes they are.
The Seahawks have a simple playoff-clinching scenario — if they beat the Rams on Thursday night they are in.
If they lose, they can still get in the playoffs this weekend if the Detroit Lions lose at home Sunday to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Seahawks have a better than 99% chance to make the playoffs, via The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator.
But the Seahawks want more than that.
With the Rams beating the Lions on Sunday, the Seahawks hold the fifth spot in the NFC, which means that if the season ended today, the Seahawks would travel to Tampa Bay for a wild card playoff game against the Bucs. The Bucs held on to the fourth seed despite their loss to Atlanta because the Saints rallied to beat the Carolina Panthers, leaving each at 7-7 (Tampa Bay and Carolina play Sunday and in the last game of the regular season, games that will sort out the winner of the NFC South).
As is obvious but worth reiterating: A lot is at stake Thursday night.
The Seahawks have a 26% chance to get the NFC’s No. 1 seed, per The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. That increases to 51% with a win over the Rams and falls to 1% with a loss.
If the Rams win, they take a one-game lead over the Seahawks and control the tiebreaker, meaning the only way Seattle could surpass them is to win its last two games while L.A. loses both.
The Rams finish with games at Atlanta and at home against Arizona, teams playing out the string and L.A. will be a big favorite. So that’s probably not gonna happen.
The 49ers are still in it too, right?
The 49ers improved to 10-4 with a relatively easy win over the Titans on Sunday, further proving that the NFC West is the best division in football this season.
The 49ers have a similar scenario to the Seahawks where they can clinch a playoff berth this week by beating the Colts on Monday night or a loss by the Lions.
The 49ers are still in the hunt for the division thanks to splitting with the Rams and holding a win over the Seahawks in their pocket from the season opener.
The 49ers have 12% odds to win the division, via The Athletic.
They will be rooting for the Seahawks on Thursday as the 49ers’ best path to winning the division — and getting the No. 1 seed — is for the Seahawks to give the Rams a loss and for the 49ers to run the table, including beating Seattle in the season finale either Jan. 3-4 and finishing ahead of the Seahawks thanks to the tiebreaker.
That won’t be easy as the 49ers will have a quick turnaround after their MNF road game against the Colts with a home game against the Bears — who also will have a lot on the line — and the home game against the Seahawks.
Were we too easy on the offense?
The Seahawks had another head-scratching offensive start Sunday with just four first downs, 80 total yards and only 3 yards rushing in the first half. Only a nine-play, 44-yard drive in the final 1:33 that led to a Jason Myers field goal as time expired gave the Seahawks much to feel good about and keep the game at 13-6 at the break.
The Seahawks turned that around in the second half, gaining 237 yards on 37 plays — 6.3 per snap — with 15 first downs and scoring on four of five full possessions, moving twice for go-ahead field goals in the final 2:27 to pull out the game.
That was the obvious problem, settling for field goals with Myers hitting a franchise-record six.
The Seahawks were 0-2 in the red zone and just 2 of 13 on third down. That was their third-lowest third-down percentage of the year (the two lowest coming in games against Jacksonville and Houston, which they won).
The Seahawks converted 12 of 28 the previous two games and had been 40% or better in five of the last six games before Sunday.
So it’s not as if it’s necessarily a seasonlong issue. The Seahawks are only 19th in the NFL converting third downs at 37.95%, and that’s actually better than the Rams, who are 21st at 37.76%. The 3-11 Arizona Cardinals are better than either at 42.25%, for what it’s worth.
The Seahawks won’t beat the Rams with a similar percentage.
In our grades following the game we gave the offensive line a C.
That elicited blowback from some e-mailers, more than a few asking if we watched the same game.
So were we?
A big part of my reasoning for not levying lower grades on the offensive line in particular and the offense as a whole was the second half and the feeling that it played half of a good game. The Seahawks averaged 5.3 yards per play for the game, off their season average of 6.0 — which is fifth in the NFL — but better than the 5.2 the Colts are allowing for the season, which is 14th in the NFL.
The Seahawks averaged 6.3 yards per play in the second half.
The running game is still a struggle, with a season-low 50 yards on 22 carries and just 3 yards on nine attempts in the first half.
But on designed runs to the running backs in the second half, the Seahawks had 44 yards on 11 carries for an average of 4.0 that is better than the 3.7 the Colts are allowing for the season, which is the best in the NFL. So, some consideration was given to the opponent and that the Seahawks did adjust and played better as the game wore on.
Via Pro Football Focus, the Seahawks gave up nine pressures on 40 Sam Darnold dropbacks. That’s a similar number to the eight in 36 against the Falcons last week or most other games.
Four of their five offensive line starters earned above-average pass-blocking grades from Pro Football Focus (all but left guard Grey Zabel). The right side of the line (tackle Abraham Lucas and guard Anthony Bradford) got above-average run-blocking grades.
We’ll concede that upon reflection, that the Seahawks did what they had to do to pull out the win certainly influenced the grades, and a day-after look reveals they certainly need to be a lot better to beat the Rams and make a significant playoff run.