You can see the oddsmakers’ logic, installing the Seahawks as slim (2½-point) favorites over the visiting Rams in the NFC championship game.
The teams split their games this season with the combined score (58-57, Rams) and combined yardage almost identical (830-829, Rams).
Logical, but based on a fallacy. The Seahawks are not the same team now.
What is more relevant is who the Seahawks have become since the fourth period of the Rams-at-Seattle game on Dec. 18.
So many schematic improvements have begun to mesh, and their dominant defensive identity has solidified.
The lone significant span of time upon which to evaluate this team is the last three games, and half the fourth quarter and the overtime in the win over the Rams that day in mid-December.
The four opponents in that span were all teams that made the playoffs. The Seahawks outscored them 105-26.
That started when the Rams were leading the Hawks, 30-14, in the fourth quarter of that Thursday game. They ended up outscoring L.A. 24-7 for a 38-37 overtime win.
That was followed by a 27-10 blitzing of Carolina and consecutive wins over San Francisco 13-3 and 41-6.
It adds up to two touchdowns and four field goals by opponents in 36 opponent possessions.
The other 30 possession were empty (three lost fumbles, three interceptions, 12 punts, eight turnovers on downs, three ends of half and one missed field goal).
The arrival of the Seahawks’ maturation, late in the game against the Rams at Lumen Field, started with the first of three straight three-and-outs by the Seahawk defense, which allowed the offense to mount a dramatic rally.
The Rams were on their way to picking up 581 yards offense, leading 30-14, and Sam Darnold had just thrown an interception for the Seahawks.
Hawk linebacker Ernest Jones IV recounted that the Rams had started bragging and posturing, as if the game were over. Jones said it fired up the Seahawks. “It was disrespectful,” Jones said. “Too much time left.”
Immediately, Rashid Shaheed scored on a 58-yard punt return that led to a successful two-point conversion pass to Cooper Kupp.
After the next Rams’ three-and-out, Shaheed’s 31-yard end-around, behind overpowering blocking, led to a TD pass to A.J. Barner and another two-point conversion on a “run” from Zach Charbonnet to tie the game.
A short touchdown pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and conversion pass to Eric Saubert gave the Hawks the thrilling overtime win.
They’ve hardly been threatened the rest of the way, adding an improved rushing attack (over 160 yards every game) to increasingly dangerous and effective special-teams units.
Granted, the Hawks have injury concerns at left tackle and backup running back.
And the Rams are the leading scoring and passing team in the NFL. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua combined for 225 passing yards in the last game in Seattle. These two could take over any game.
The Rams have had a tough road, too, playing at Carolina and at Chicago, winning by three-point margins in each playoff game.
But sometimes a tough road hardens the traveler.
They’re well coached and will be highly motivated.
From their comments and apparent confidence, the Seahawks share a widespread belief that they’re the best team in the NFL and can win it all.
Some plays, like Shaheed’s returns, Kenneth Walker’s gashes through the line and big defensive plays by all those players on The Dark Side, just cause the confidence to expand.
There are also plays that take the mindset beyond that, into a higher realm, and deeper belief.
Think back to a play mentioned earlier, calling it a 2-point conversion “run” by Zach Charbonnet. That’s short-selling its value and significance.
It was a backward pass to Charbonnet that got tipped at the line of scrimmage and bounced into the end zone. Everyone assumed it was an incomplete pass, one that would leave the Hawks trailing 30-28.
Instead, Charbonnet walked over and picked up the ball in the end zone. Since it had been a backward pass, it was a live-ball fumble, and the two points converted when he took possession.
Any number of Rams standing around could have picked it up. But they didn’t.
Coach Mike Macdonald likes to say that “the ball rewards effort.”
He’s right, and the Seahawks, especially since then, have earned their good fortune with superior effort.
So, I think the Seahawks will dominate the lines of scrimmage, will exploit an advantage in the special teams, swamp the Rams with effort, and win this by double digits.
They’ve hosted three NFC championship games and won all three.
They’re not about to stop now.