SEATTLE – The American League West has, suddenly, turned into a three-team race.
And with a little more than two weeks left in the regular season, the Mariners have nearly caught up to the rival Houston Astros in their pursuit of their first division title since 2001.
The Houston Astros, who have held at least a share of first place every day since June 3, continued their September swoon on Thursday afternoon with a 6-0 loss to the Blue Jays in Toronto.
The Astros (79-68) have lost eight of their last 12 games, and their lead has dwindled to a half-game over the Mariners as of Thursday afternoon.
The Mariners (78-68) open a four-game series against the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park on Thursday night, with Bryce Miller scheduled to start opposite Angels right-hander José Soriano.
The Mariners won their fifth game in row late Wednesday on Leo Rivas’ walkoff homer in the 13th inning to complete a sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals.
At 19-6, the Mariners hold the best home record in the AL since the All-Star break.
Not to be forgotten, the Texas Rangers are one of baseball’s hottest teams, and they completed a three-game sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday for their fourth straight win to remain 2.5 games back of the Astros and 1.5 games back of the Mariners for the third and final spot in the AL wild card standings.
The Rangers are 14-5 since Aug. 20, and they’re winning with several Mariners castoffs – Dylan Moore, Rowdy Tellez and Sam Haggerty. And earlier this week, the Rangers signed Donovan Solano to a minor-league contract.
As of Thursday morning, here’s how FanGraphs’ model projections the AL West the shake out.
Odds to win the division:
Astros, 48.1%
Mariners, 46.8%
Rangers, 5.0%
Odds to make the playoffs:
Mariners, 88.6%
Astros, 82.6%
Rangers, 26.1%
Odds to the World Series:
Mariners, 8.2%
Astros, 4.6%
Rangers, 0.6%
The Mariners and the Yankees have the easiest remaining schedule in the AL, per Tankathon.com, each with an opponents’ combined winning percentage of .471.
The Mariners have three series remaining against winning teams – the Royals and Astros on the road next week, and the Dodgers in Seattle to close out the regular season.
The Astros have three games left against the Mariners and Rangers, and three series against the Braves, Athletics and Angels.
The Rangers have three series against winning clubs – the Astros, Mets and Guardians – and two against teams with losing records (Twins and Marlins).