TORONTO — Thirty years ago, the Mariners won a wild, emotional, exhausting and rather memorable Game 5 of the American League Division Series, and two days later rolled out something resembling a functional lineup for the first game of the American League Championship Series.
And they won.
Sorry to keep bringing up 1995 again, but it seems like a little bit of history is trying to repeat itself.
The difference this time is the M’s didn’t spend Saturday at home recovering in their own comfy environment, which they had the chance to in 1995. Instead, it was a flight across the continent trying to recover a little bit before Sunday night’s Game 1 of the ALCS here against the rested Blue Jays.
Similarities from that 48-hour period 30 years ago don’t end with sheer emotional exhaustion. In Game 1 of that ALCS, the Mariners turned to little-known Bob Wolcott to start the opener against Cleveland after most of the pitching staff — i.e. Randy Johnson — was tapped out in Game 5.
And they won that Game 1 after Wolcott unexpectedly threw seven innings in just the seventh start of his career.
This time, it’s Bryce Miller getting the call to start Game 1 after Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo were used out of the bullpen in Game 5 on Friday against the Detroit Tigers. Miller obviously has more experience than Wolcott did, but it’ll be short rest after he threw in Game 4 of the ALDS on Wednesday.
How the Mariners manage their pitching over the first two games against Toronto is one of the biggest questions entering this series. The arms are tapped. They’re tired, especially in the bullpen. And it’s been only five games.
The Blue Jays had a team OPS of .974 in their ALDS against the New York Yankees. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems determined to prove his commitment to Toronto for the next 14 years was worth it for both sides by getting the Blue Jays to a World Series for the first time since 1993.
The M’s need to get their offense going after batting .207 with a .636 team OPS against the Tigers. Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suárez were a combined 5 for 42 with three walks and 17 strikeouts over the final three games of the series.
Here’s a look at the matchups by position for the ALCS.
(All stats are from the ALDS.)
Catcher
Blue Jays: Alejandro Kirk (.222, 2 HR, 3 RBI, .833 OPS). The Blue Jays’ pudgy performer with the bat has also become one of the better defensive catchers in baseball.
Mariners: Cal Raleigh (.381, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1.051 OPS). Raleigh looked refreshed during the ALDS, and it showed with a team-high eight hits — although catching 15 innings Friday probably took a toll.
Advantage: Mariners. Raleigh seems to take great joy in playing the Blue Jays.
First base
Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.529, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 1.609 OPS). Vladdy Jr. single-handedly tried to demolish the Yankees in the ALDS. The M’s have done a decent job keeping him under control in the past.
Mariners: Josh Naylor (.261, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .639 OPS). Naylor struggled badly to start the ALDS but came on with six hits and two doubles in the final two games.
Advantage: Blue Jays. There’s a reason Toronto gave Guerrero $500 million.
Second base
Blue Jays: Ernie Clement (.643, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1.554 OPS). Andrés Giménez could end up here, but Clement would still have a significant role.
Mariners: Jorge Polanco (.182, 2 HR, 3 RBI, .705 OPS). He was the reason the M’s beat Tarik Skubal in Game 2 and then provided the walkoff to end the series.
Advantage: Mariners. Polanco’s contributions this season will be looked back up as one of the great bargains in franchise history.
Third base
Blue Jays: Addison Barger (.333, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .750 OPS). Barger, who was born in Bellevue, doesn’t profile as a traditional cleanup hitter but hit 21 homers in the regular season.
Mariners: Eugenio Suárez (.095, 1 HR, 1 RBI, .374 OPS). Suárez was bad at the plate in the division series and seemed to be guessing more often than not.
Advantage: Blue Jays. Barger hitting left-handed is a big counter against all the M’s right-handers.
Shortstop
Blue Jays: Andrés Giménez (.267, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .646 OPS). Gimenez is great defensively, but the Blue Jays will miss Bo Bichette, who was left of the roster with an injury.
Mariners: J.P. Crawford (.263, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .707 OPS). It was an up-and-down ALDS for Crawford, but scoring the series-winning run had to feel great for the longest-tenured Mariner.
Advantage: Push. Bichette would have given Blue Jays the edge.
Left field
Blue Jays: Anthony Santander (.200, 0 HR, 2 RBI, .400 OPS). Santander will likely start in either left or right field and gives the Blue Jays another lefty bat in the lineup.
Mariners: Randy Arozarena (.174, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .487 OPS). “Playoff Randy” has yet to show up, and the M’s need him to.
Advantage: Push. Both teams would like to get more from the position.
Center field
Blue Jays: Daulton Varsho (.438, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1.471 OPS). Was limited to just 71 games in the regular season but had seven hits in four ALDS games.
Mariners: Julio Rodríguez (.174, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .588 OPS). Rodríguez was great in Games 1 and 2 and not so great after. He has just two career RBI against Toronto.
Advantage: Mariners. Varsho was great in the ALDS. Rodríguez wasn’t. But Julio still could be the most impactful player in the series.
Right field
Blue Jays: Nathan Lukes (.333, 0 HR, 5 RBI, .833 OPS). Lukes could end up in left field but as a lefty will see significant action against the M’s onslaught of right-handed pitching.
Mariners: Víctor Robles (.143, 0 HR, 0 RBI, .643 OPS). Wonder if we might get a game with Dominic Canzone in right early in the series.
Advantage: Push.
Designated hitter
Blue Jays: George Springer (.176, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .721 OPS). Springer struggled in the ALDS, but his overall season was tremendous with 32 homers and a .959 OPS.
Mariners: Dominic Canzone (.167, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .452 OPS). Canzone should start, but don’t be surprised if Polanco DH’s a day and Leo Rivas starts at second base.
Advantage: Blue Jays. Springer’s resurgence will likely lead to a top 10 finish for him in MVP voting.
Bench (key players)
Blue Jays: Myles Straw, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider, Tyler Heineman. Straw and Kiner-Falefa had significant roles off the bench in the ALDS.
Mariners: Leo Rivas, Luke Raley, Mitch Garver. The M’s bench was sparsely used in the ALDS. It might need to be used more here.
Advantage: Blue Jays. Toronto rotates players more and has a little more depth.
Starting rotation
Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos. Gausman is the Game 1 starter, and Yesavage was terrific pitching at Rogers Centre against the Yankees in his playoff debut. Bassitt had a 3.96 ERA during the regular season but wasn’t on the roster for the ALDS.
Mariners: Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo. Miller will get the ball for Game 1, but after that it’s just a guess how it all shakes out. Having Woo available for a few innings in Games 3 or 4 would be significant.
Advantage: Mariners. Overall, the better group of starters, but they’re already taxed.
Bullpen (key relievers)
Blue Jays: Braydon Fisher, Mason Fluharty, Brendon Little, Louis Varland, Jeff Hoffman. Toronto’s bullpen won Game 4 against the Yankees. Varland was a terrific pickup at the trade deadline, and Little and Fluharty are key lefties. Hoffman had 33 saves in the regular season but can be shaky.
Mariners: Gabe Speier, Eduard Bazardo, Carlos Vargas, Matt Brash, Andrés Muñoz. Speier will need to rebound from two tough outings in Games 4 and 5. Bazardo threw two of the most important innings in M’s recent history in Game 5.
Advantage: Mariners. Same as the starters — they’re already tired after the ALDS and that fatigue could catch up with them.
Manager
Blue Jays: John Schneider. Led the Blue Jays to their first AL East title since 2015 and their first playoff series win since 2016. One of the favorites for AL manager of the year.
Mariners: Dan Wilson. He made more than a couple of questionable decisions in his first playoff series as a manager but made the right calls in Game 5.
Advantage: Blue Jays. They both have one playoff series win to their names now, but Schneider seemed to make all the right moves vs. the Yankees.