On the final day of the regular season, Jerry Dipoto sat in the Mariners’ dugout at T-Mobile Park assessing the year and playoff expectations when he made a statement that through seven postseason games has turned out to be true about his ballclub.
“In the postseason you really don’t get the benefit of facing the back-end rotation guy or a middle reliever who’s prone to an extra walk every now and then. You’re facing the best pitchers in baseball, and it’s hard to string together the number of hits required to put up crooked numbers,” said Dipoto, the M’s president of baseball operations. “Crooked numbers happen when you hit it out of the ballpark, and even the best pitchers in baseball give up homers.”
Home runs are cool in the regular season. Hit enough of them as a team over the 162-game marathon, and more often than not your team is probably – not always – playing in October.
In the sprint that is postseason baseball, home runs change games and determine series. Hit enough of them – or better yet, hit them at the right time – and the chances to play deep into October increase.
Game 2 of the American League Championship Series on Monday was a prime example for the Mariners, who won 10-3. Two three-run homers were largely responsible for sending the M’s back home with a 2-0 lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the best-of-seven series. Game 3 is Wednesday night at T-Mobile Park.
The Mariners have scored multiple runs in an inning seven times through their first seven playoff games. Six of those seven multirun innings – or crooked number innings, as Dipoto referenced – included a home run.
Not all of them were multirun homers. But even the solo shots served as catalysts for big innings.
And when multirun homers are delivered – such as the three-run homers from Julio Rodríguez and Jorge Polanco, and a two-run shot from Josh Naylor in Game 2 – a 10-run outburst can be the result.
But the message being conveyed is to not expect the same kind of homer-happy onslaught back at T-Mobile Park after the M’s hit four long balls in two games at Rogers Centre.
“We should by no means be like, trying to hit homers, because they’re ultra rare in the playoffs and they’re really hard in Seattle in October,” Mitch Garver said. “We shouldn’t go home expecting that the three-run homer is going to come. If anything, gear it back and really focus on getting those base hits and moving guys over, and driving them in.”
Not surprisingly, the teams hitting more homers are the ones coming out ahead this postseason across all of baseball. Across all games through the ALCS and NLCS games that were played Monday, teams are 20-3 when out-homering their opponents.
The Mariners were third in baseball and second in the American League in homers during the regular season after smacking 238. They trailed only the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers. Seattle was also second in the league with 50% of its runs during the regular season coming via the homer, trailing only the Yankees.
Those are good signs that success in the postseason is going to follow.
Take away the pandemic-altered 2020 postseason, only once in the previous 10 years has the World Series not featured at least one team that ranked in the top five during the regular season in home runs.
But it’s not a guarantee.
Last season when the Yankees and Dodgers met in the World Series it marked the first time in this 10-year window that two teams in the top three in the regular season reached the World Series.
The year before, Arizona – which finished 22nd overall in homers – won the NL pennant. In 2019 Washington won the World Series despite ranking 13th in the league in homers. In 2016, when the Cubs and Cleveland played one of the most famous championship series, and they got there after ranking ranked 13th and 18th overall, respectfully.
For what it’s worth, this season Toronto was tied for 11th in homers, and Milwaukee was 22nd.