Exactly two versions of the Seattle Mariners exist of late: They’re either smoldering hot or freezing cold.
There has been no in-between with this team, which makes the final three-week push toward the playoffs all the more fascinating and unpredictable.
The hot take: World Series, here we come.
Everything, indeed, remains in front of the Mariners, who closed out a 3-6 road trip with back-to-back blowout victories in Atlanta over the weekend to pull within 2.5 games of Houston for the American League West lead.
The Mariners racked up 31 hits and 10 home runs Saturday and Sunday, outscoring Atlanta by a combined 28-4 and restoring some much-needed positive momentum.
That version of the Mariners very much looks like a legitimate World Series contender, a team capable of catching the Astros and surging to its first division title since 2001.
The cold take: Uh oh, here we go again.
The Mariners missed out on the playoffs by one game in each of the past two seasons, and that familiar September stench had to be sinking in again for M’s fans as the team limped into the weekend having lost five of its previous six games.
The Mariners nearly lost their long-held grip on the third and final spot in the AL wild card standings, too, and the hard-charging Texas Rangers aren’t going away.
Which version of the Mariners should we expect over the final 19 games of the regular season?
The good news for the Mariners is they’re home for 13 of their final 19 games, and they’ve been a different team playing at T-Mobile Park in the season’s second half.
Entering Monday, they’ve won 16 of 22 at home since the All-Star break, with a 3.56 staff ERA at home compared to 4.96 on the road.
The Mariners (75-68) began a three-game series with the visiting St. Louis Cardinals (72-72) on Monday night. Seattle RHP Bryan Woo (12-7, 3.02) was scheduled to face St. Louis RHP Miles Mikolas (7-10, 4.89).
The other pitching matchups for Mariners-Cardinals:
Tuesday: Seattle RHP George Kirby (8-7, 4.47) vs. St. Louis LHP Matthew Liberatore (7-11, 4.15).
Wednesday: Seattle RHP Logan Gilbert (4-6, 3.61) vs. St. Louis RHP Michael McGreevy (6-3, 4.68).
The Los Angeles Angels come to town Thursday to begin a four-game series.
Entering Monday’s game, here’s where things stood in the AL West:
1. Astros, 78-66
2. Mariners, 75-68 (2.5 GB)
3. Rangers, 74-70 (4.0 GB)
Projections from FanGraphs give the Astros a 64.1% chance to win the division, with the Mariners at 33.2% and the Rangers at 2.7%.
The Astros, idle Monday, play 12 of their final 18 games on the road, starting Tuesday against the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays.
The Rangers began a three-game series at home Monday against the Milwaukee Brewers, the team with the best record in MLB. Half of the Rangers’ final 18 games are at home.
Next week, Houston hosts the Rangers and the Mariners in back-to-back series, a stretch that could very well decide the division.
The three games in Houston, starting Sept. 19, is the final road series for the Mariners.
The Mariners and Astros split their first 10 games of the season, so any tie-breaker scenarios will be decided in that series, too.
Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez returned to the lineup after missing nearly four months with a hand injury, and he’s heating up just in time for a postseason push.
The Mariners open their final road trip next week in Kansas City for a crucial series against the Royals, who, at 26-18, have one of the best records in the league since the All-Star break.
Here’s where things stand in the AL wild card:
1. Yankees, 80-63
2. Red Sox, 79-65
3. Mariners, 75-68
Rangers, 74-70 (1.5 GB)
Royals, 73-70 (2.0 GB)
Guardians, 72-70 (2.5 GB)
Rays, 71-72 (4.0 GB)
Note that the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays currently hold the top two seeds in the AL and, thus, would receive byes into the AL division series. The other four teams play in best-of-three wild card series, with the higher seed hosting all three games.
Since MLB adopted its new postseason format in 2022 – expanding to six playoff teams from each league – the No. 3 wild card team in the AL has won 86, 89 and 86 games.
If the season ended today, the Mariners would be the No. 3 wild-card team and travel to Houston for a wild card series.