The MLB playoffs may be American sports’ most random tournament. In a league where no team won more than 60 % of its games this year, can we really expect the postseason to go chalk? Probably not.
Don’t get me wrong – the Mariners have as good a chance as anybody to win the World Series. If they do come up short, though, don’t blame the front office. Those folks did their job.
The M’s brass has been one of the most disparaged groups in all of Seattle for the past 10 years. They rarely spent enough to put the Mariners in the top half of the MLB payroll. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto couldn’t quite make the moves to make them a championship-contending franchise in previous years. And as a result, fans were left perpetually disappointed by a team that would tease them with playoff hopes before being eliminated in the final series of the season.
The frustration toward those responsible for filling out the roster was justified. But now? That anger should have morphed to appreciation.
I don’t say that as someone looking to cozy up to people such as Dipoto or chairman John Stanton. I’ve been as critical of the front office as most fans have. But look at what they’ve achieved this year.
The Mariners didn’t stumble into the postseason due to a few lucky breaks or key injuries to their rivals. They cemented a first-round bye after winning 17 of 18 games in September before suffering a meaningless sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. There’s a reason that FanGraphs.com gives them the best odds (20.3 %) of any team in MLB to win the World Series.
Their offense finished ninth in MLB in runs despite playing their home games in baseball’s most pitcher-friendly park. They were first in runs in September, scoring nine more than any other team in the league. That doesn’t happen without the addition of Eugenio Suárez (13 home runs in 53 games with Seattle) and Josh Naylor (2.2 WAR in 54 games) at the trade deadline. That’s Dipoto’s work. That’s what helped set up the M’s for history.
But this goes beyond some wheeling-and-dealing in late July. What took place in previous drafts and offseasons is more consequential. Exhibit A: Locking down Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez with two of the most team-friendly contracts in MLB.
Last March, Seattle signed Raleigh to a six-year, $105 million extension – which averages out to $17.5 million per season. That’s good money – but it’s not MVP money, and if Raleigh is able to beat out Aaron Judge for the American League award, that’s a three-letter title he could hold in mid-November.
Given his 60 home runs and 9.1 WAR (according to FanGraphs), Cal’s 2025 was worth (at least) twice as much dough than what he earned. And though it’s unlikely he’ll have another Ruthian-like power season, the fact that Dipoto was able to sign him at what seems like a major discount was vital.
Then there’s Julio, whose 6.8 WAR (according to Baseball Reference) makes him the eighth most productive player in the majors this year. Eighth. Rodríguez’s 12-year $210 million extension may look like he is getting paid superstar money, but he isn’t. And though that deal could net him over $400 million in the end, it would still be a bargain at the rate he is playing.
What about draft picks such as Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo, who have helped make the Mariners pitching staff one of the best in baseball? What about extending Luis Castillo and getting three quality (and one All-Star) year out of him? What about trading for one of the league’s most consistent shortstops in J.P. Crawford and one of the league’s best closers in Andrés Muñoz?
This team was built, not bought. And though there have surely been some blunders along the way, you can’t argue with the ammunition the Mariners have now.
Two years ago, the three teams with 100 wins (the Braves, Orioles and Dodgers) all lost in their opening rounds. Atlanta was the only squad among those three to win a game, and they did it only once. You just don’t know in the playoffs.
But you do know how these Mariners are now. Win or lose, the brass deserves credit.