SEATTLE – The Seattle Mariners are not unlucky.
Quite the contrary. They’ve been lucky for too long.
That’s not a commentary on the quality of Seattle’s starting pitchers. When healthy, the rotation – Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller – have combined to be baseball’s best. They led MLB in ERA (3.38), quality starts (92), opponent batting average (.221), WHIP (1.03) and walks per nine innings (1.77) in 2024.
But “when healthy” is an ominous way to start a sentence.
Health isn’t infinite. Soon enough, the bill comes due.
After topping MLB in innings pitched each of the previous two seasons, the durability of Seattle’s starters has begun to dissipate. Kirby was shut down in spring training due to shoulder inflammation. Gilbert (who led baseball with 2082/3 innings in 2024) was placed on the injured list with a flexor strain on April 26. And on Wednesday, Miller was added to the 15-day IL with right elbow inflammation.
Those are daunting dominoes.
But again, this isn’t a run of rotten luck. It’s an unsustainable run of reliability that finally, inevitably reverted to the mean.
It’s possible Kirby (who could return late next week after a third rehab start), Miller (who said Wednesday he hopes to need just the minimum two-week IL stint) and Gilbert (who’s gradually ramping up with bullpen sessions) will be back sooner rather than later.
But a suddenly scuffling Mariners offense must help this team tread water in the meantime.
They couldn’t accomplish that in a 1-5 homestand, mustering just 16 runs (2.7 per game) along the way. Even so, Seattle entered an off-day with a one-game lead over the Athletics in the AL West.
Before Wednesday’s 3-2 loss to the Yankees, Mariners manager Dan Wilson said: “We’ve weathered the storm here with some injuries and just have to continue to do it.”
That’s easier for some teams than others. Because, simply put: Stars weather storms.
Take the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have 14 pitchers (!) on their injured list. That includes standout starters Blake Snell (the Shorewood [Shoreline, Washington] High alum), Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki and Clayton Kershaw, an All-Star rotation of injured arms.
Of course, the Dodgers also entered Wednesday in first place in the NL West at 27-15. Because a roster featuring Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith and Andy Pages can outshine its injuries.
The Mariners’ payroll doesn’t allow for the same luxury. They need a ragtag roster to work at-bats, force walks, steal bases, hit homers and manufacture runs, something they did in nine consecutive series wins.
When they don’t, they lose. Or in Tuesday’s case, they need 11 innings to scrape a 2-1 win.
But on Wednesday, the big hit was lacking. After Julio Rodríguez drove in two runs with a double down the right-field line, Cal Raleigh’s 105.8-mph liner – which would have scored two more – was corralled by sliding center fielder Trent Grisham. Hopeful homers by Rodriguez (a 105.2-mph shot in the fifth) and Jorge Polanco (a 103.2-mph dart to dead center in the seventh) both died on the warning track. And a bouncing double play by Dylan Moore, who earned an American League Player of the Week nod last month, ended an eighth-inning rally.
“We had opportunities today with guys on base, and we hit some balls hard and didn’t have a lot to show for it,” Wilson said after Wednesday’s game. “So that’s what you’re looking for. Today we just weren’t able to get them to fall.”
It’s not a one-game sample size. Consider how some of the Mariners’ once-hot hitters have since returned to Earth:
• J.P. Crawford: 6 for 31 (.194) in the past seven games, scratched Wednesday because of shoulder stiffness.
• Ben Williamson: 5 for 27 (.185) in the past eight games, 10 K, 0 HR, 1 RBI.
• Jorge Polanco: 7 for 36 (.194) in the past 12 games, 1 HR, 4 RBIs.
• Dylan Moore: 8 for 34 (.235) in the past 11 games, 2 HR, 6 RBIs, 11 K.
By and large, Seattle’s stars – Rodríguez, Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, etc. – have contributed. But as the 23-19 Mariners embark on a 10-game road trip against two winning teams (San Diego and Houston), with the 13-29 White Sox sandwiched in between, the options are obvious:
Score or sink.
“This is how we’re designed, picking each other up,” Rodríguez said Wednesday. “I know it’s tough, obviously having some guys (from the rotation) going out like that. But we’ve got games to play. That’s the best way I think we can pick them up, showing up and preparing and being ready to do 100% while they’re gone.”
A rotation with Emerson Hancock (6.91 ERA in six starts this season), Logan Evans (3.60 ERA in three career starts) and Jhonathan Díaz (4.66 ERA in 17 career games) won’t strike fear in even the White Sox.
Still, Castillo and Woo – the remaining members of Seattle’s previously formidable five – held the Yankees to a combined 10 hits and one earned run during 121/3 innings in their past two starts.
“It’s a positive sign that we’re all doing our job good. We’re doing it correctly,” said Castillo, who surrendered nine batted balls of 100-plus mph but balanced that with a season-high 17 swinging strikes. “All I can (do is) ask God to give us a little more luck.”
The Mariners don’t need luck.
They need to reignite their offense, or else.