SEATTLE – Trade rumors circling Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, the Seattle U Hall of Famer and two-time reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, could escalate over the next few days at the MLB Winter Meetings in Orlando, Florida.
Skubal will be a free agent a year from now, and he could be in line for the largest contract ever for a pitcher.
Because of that, some have suggested the Tigers would be wise to trade him this winter for a sizable package of prospects or risk losing him in free agency to the Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Mets or another mega-wealthy club next winter.
It’s not entirely clear what the Tigers will do, but the industry consensus seems to be that it’s unlikely they would actually trade him this winter.
Even if he was on the trade block, it’s even unlikelier that the Mariners would be willing to stomach the sort of package it would take to bring Skubal back to Seattle.
After dispatching Detroit in the AL Division Series, and then taking the Toronto Blue Jays to seven games in the AL Championship Series, the Mariners front office has been steadfast in its primary aim for 2026: Let’s run it back.
Their biggest transaction of the offseason – re-signing first baseman Josh Naylor for $92.5 million over five years – was a dramatic statement of those intentions.
The Mariners would also like to re-sign free agent Jorge Polanco to effectively recreate the majority of the lineup that led them deeper into October than they’ve ever been as a franchise.
What’s more, the Mariners remain confident in their starting rotation and are expected to bring back their five established starters – Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller – for 2026.
Like Skubal now, Castillo was the subject of intense trade speculation at the Winter Meetings a year ago.
The Mariners engaged in talks with multiple teams at the time but never consummated a deal, and Castillo came back with a typically productive season for the Mariners in 2025.
This winter, the Mariners do not intend to shop Castillo on the trade market, sources with knowledge of the team’s plans told the Seattle Times.
Castillo, who turns 33 on Dec. 12, was the only Seattle pitcher to make every start in 2025. He posted a 3.54 ERA – right in line with his career ERA of 3.55 – and threw 180-plus innings, topping 175 innings for the third year in a row.
He was an especially valuable and steadying presence early in the season when Kirby, Gilbert and Miller were out with injuries. As the Mariners’ highest-paid player, Castillo has two years remaining on a $108-million deal he signed in 2022, set to earn about $24 million over the next two seasons – fair-market value for a veteran pitcher of his caliber.
The past few years, the general industry perception was the Mariners would eventually have to trade from their strength – starting pitching depth – to shore up persistent holes in their lineup.
That never materialized, and it does not appear it will this winter, either.
In this era of Mariners baseball, the roster has largely been constructed on a run-prevention operation, a style that suits playing half of their games at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
The Mariners will continue to lean on that for 2026, and beyond, though the return of Naylor means the M’s can reasonably expect to have one of the AL’s best lineups next season, with a current top four of Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Naylor, in some order.
The Mariners want to add one more proven bat this winter, whether that’s re-signing Polanco or trading for a veteran such as St. Louis’ Brendan Donovan.
After the July trade-deadline additions of Naylor and Eugenio Suárez, the Mariners ranked third in the AL in scoring (5.15 runs per game), second in homers (84) and tied with Toronto with the second-best wRC+ (117) over the final two months. (Only the Yankees, at 121, had a better wRC+, an advanced metric that measures total offensive production.)
After a historically great season from their starters in 2024, the Mariners staff took a step back in ’25, largely because of injuries to three of the five main starters.
Just as all five were healthy again for the final month of the season, Woo was lost for a month – deep into the playoffs – with a pectoral strain.
Woo was one of the sport’s breakthrough stars this year, going 15-7 with a 2.94 ERA, earning his first All-Star selection and leading Seattle pitchers in innings pitched (186.2) and bWAR (4.2). He finished fifth in the AL Cy Young voting.
For 2026, the Mariners are again envisioning a starting five that, when healthy, is as talented and as deep as any staff in the majors, and subtracting from that strength is not part of their current plan this offseason.