Do not make him swing. There’s no “or else.” Just be cool.
Giving up 6, 6, and 9 runs is no way to win a series. Neither is scoring 3, 3, and 1, of course, but it’s hewing a bit closer to the T-Mobile Park median than the offensive offensive allowances Seattle ceded to the Blue Jays this weekend. Nearly every member of the roster played, many of them struggling. The outlier is Leo Rivas, the odd utilityman out with the return of Dylan Moore. Only the unscheduled starters Bryan Woo and Emerson Hancock, along with stranded closer Andrés Muñoz, played less of a role in the Mariners unseemly sweep at the hands of Toronto this weekend. Yet Rivas has been good, and in his funny, distinct way may merit more time to try and shine.
In the Toronto series, Rivas appeared just twice, receiving no plate appearances, as a Friday pinch-runner and as a Sunday second baseman-turned-pitcher. For the third time in his career, Rivas was utilized as a position player pitcher and for the third time in his career, he worked a scoreless frame. The umpires may not have wanted to inspect his hat, but Rivas was rightfully tickled.
ROOT
When you manage a WHIP of 4.000 and still get out of an inning with your career ERA at 0.00, the crowd is right to acknowledge you, especially on a day bereft of much else to cheer for.
ROOT
It may shock you, dear reader, but the list of player with a Mariners career ERA <=1.00 and a minimum of 3.0 IP is short, and Leo Rivas is one of just two such players Seattle has currently in their organization.
Stathead/Baseball Savant
Other than (obviously) causing me to investigate Steve Ontiveros and feeling retroactive sorrow that Seattle couldn’t retain him for more of the 1990s, I’m tickled at Rivas’ success on the hill. That said, it’s window dressing for the point that drew me to Little Leo (Litleo, if you will) in the first place.
The kid hates to hit.
And what’s there to like, really? Rivas is now in his 10th professional season, and has hit just 33 home runs in 3245 plate appearances across 799 games. Not a single one has come in the 137 plate appearances in the 63 major league games he’s played. All that effort to swing, and what’s it really for? Litleo is 27 now, no mere cub. He’s got bills to pay, pinch-running to do, and apparently he might have to pitch later. Perhaps that’s why Rivas has the 4th-lowest swing rate of any player in MLB this year (min. 50 PA), trailing Pavin Smith of the Diamondbacks by a mere 0.2%. That 34.8% swing rate by Rivas would be the 4th-lowest by any M’s player since we have pitch-tracking data back to 2007, behind a similarly small sample of 2015 Shawn O’Malley (33.0%) and infamously picky slugger Daniel Vogelbach in 2020 and 2019 (33.8-33.9%).
But if Rivas hates to swing, he despises chasing even more. Not only does he have the lowest rate of swings at pitches out of the zone in MLB this year (13.6%), the only player in Mariners tracked history to chase less than 2025 Rivas is… 2024 Rivas, at (12.6%). This is exactly who Rivas has been through the minors, particularly since joining the M’s organization in 2023. It’s just… worked, and has led to him walking at eye-popping double-digit rates, while he strikes out at a modest rate due in large part to just taking so many dang pitches.
There are two players Rivas most resembles on the active M’s roster. The first tracks easily, as Miles Mastrobuoni is essentially Rivas’ mirror, and the two have been deployed as such. Though Rivas can switch-hit, Mastrobuoni typically starts against righties and Rivas takes on lefties. What distinguishes Mastrobuoni is largely favorable – he hits the ball harder and actually whiffs less than Rivas, who still swings and misses less than the average bear. But because of those whiffs here and there, Rivas has been ending up with extra walks, whereas Mastrobuoni is a bit more reliant on his contact bearing fruit. And since neither player ultimately has even average big league power, Rivas’ little sample is going great while Mastrobuoni has been stranded in fallow acres.
That brings us to the other comparable, which is Mitch Garver. More typically the type to draw walks and patiently wait for an ambush swing, Garver has historically shown big power, but currently is just an OBP machine a la 2022 Jesse Winker playing through his bulging disc, ankle sprain, etc.. But both players employ essentially the same tactics. Garver attempts to swing big in the zone, while refusing to bother with nonsense outside the zone he knows he can’t handle. While he’s not actually slugging much, Garver looks the part and has the resume to give opposing pitchers and game-planners pause.
The 5’8, 150 lbs Rivas is managing to do the same, but it’s smoke and mirrors. Despite his .424 BABIP, the threat of his swing is a toy mallet or a pistol with a “BANG!” pennant that unfurls at the pull of a trigger. His 15.2% hard hit rate is lower than his strikeout rate of 15.7%, which is in turn lower than his walk rate of 19.6%! The next Barrel he hits this year will be his first, and just the second in his career.
This is the only ball Rivas has hit this season 100 mph or more off the bat. His .341/.471/.366 line with a 161 wRC+ demonstrates a profile so devoid of pop I’m surprised Jerry Dipoto doesn’t try to make him sleep inside an OmniFizz. But it’s working, largely the same way it’s been working for Rivas for the past few years. He runs well, plays smooth defense, and has a glacial swing speed that’s catered towards contact on a line drive plane, be it squishy or “firm” as a memory foam mattress pad.
With Moore healthy once more, I’d like to see Rivas play more frequently at second base, giving Moore some extended time in the outfield and a chance to gauge if the disciplined 27 year old Venezuelan can maintain something approaching this type of play. Seattle’s best offensive stretches this year included J.P. Crawford at the bottom of the order, employing a similarly swing-averse, high-OBP, low-pop approach to help turn the top of the lineup over with a decent runner on. I think Rivas is worth giving that chance to earn such a role, or play himself out of it the way Mastrobuoni and others have done.