With Major League Baseball officially moving into its offseason phase with the Dodgers winning the World Series, there is a slight lull before any activity – specifically trades and free-agent signings – that would signal the start of the “hot stove” season.
Most of the player activity in the last few days have been decisions made by teams or players for contract options for next season. There is also a five-day period, which started on Sunday, where teams have an exclusive window to engage in contract negotiations for their own players that recently became free agents.
For the Mariners, this would be a prime opportunity to address their biggest offseason need with the player they want to return to fill it.
From manager Dan Wilson to general manager Justin Hollander to president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, they’ve all made it very clear that bringing back first baseman Josh Naylor is a “priority.”
The Mariners acquired Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks a week before the Aug. 1 trade deadline, looking to find an everyday player at a premium position.
The deal couldn’t have worked out much better for Seattle. Naylor’s mixture of intensity and intelligence, his unique personality and his on-field production at the plate, in the field and on the bases made him a fan favorite immediately.
In 54 regular-season games with Seattle, he posted a .299/.341/.490 slash line with 10 doubles, nine homers, 33 RBIs, 19 stolen bases, 11 walks and 34 strikeouts. In 12 postseason games, he posted a .340/.392/.574 slash line with 16 hits, including three homers.
While Naylor was often quoted about his love for playing for the Mariners and the joy he experienced playing at T-Mobile Park, he was always going to test the free-agent market. At age 28, he’s earned a right to sign a multi-year contract.
Given his obvious fit and the Mariners’ expressed desire and need to bring him back, Seattle can’t expect Naylor to give them a discount or even be resistant to paying above the market value. You can’t say signing a player is a priority and then get uncomfortable to pay him like it.
But what is the right contract number? The growing consensus around MLB is that Naylor will be looking for at least four years, but preferably five, with a yearly average salary between $18-20 million. A four-year contract would logically require a vesting option for a fifth year. While a five-year contract might also need to include an opt-out after three years. Christian Walker signed a three-year, $60 million contract with the Astros at age 33 last offseason.
In his tenure as the front office leader, Dipoto has never signed a free agent position player to that large of a contract. The largest contract was Mitch Garver’s two-year, $24 million deal.
But what happens if Naylor finds a more preferable opportunity elsewhere? It’s not an impossible scenario. The Yankees and Mets will be looking to add a first baseman and can afford his contract. The Padres, Rangers and Brewers have needs but might be reluctant to commit the money. Other teams like the Red Sox and Orioles could look at upgrading at the position.
Here’s a look at the market for free agent first baseman:
Top Tier
Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor
Alonso opted out of his contract with the Mets, which would’ve paid him $24 million in 2026, to instead return to free agency. After failing to find a long-term deal last offseason and signing a two-year, $54 million contract with the opt-out after one season, Alonso will be looking for something more than two years even at age 31. He is not a great defensive first baseman, and he will see more time at designated hitter in the years ahead, but his power is still viable. He posted a .272/.347/.524 slash line with 38 homers and 87 RBI s this season. But what teams have the resources and are willing to give him a four – or five-year deal at $25 million a season?
We are leaving Cody Bellinger and Munetaka Murakami out of the first base group since it isn’t their primary position, even though both of them are quite capable of playing first base.
The best of the rest (age in parentheses)
Ryan O’Hearn (32) – A lefty hitter who has had an up-and-down career. He’s been a solid producer the last three seasons, posting a .277/.343/.445 slash line in 398 games – most of them with the Orioles. He averaged 21 doubles, 15 homers and 60 RBI s over the three seasons.
Luis Arraez (29) – He is not a good first baseman, and doesn’t walk much, but he also doesn’t strike out much. Arraez also doesn’t provide any power. He does get hits though, and has a career .317 batting average.
Josh Bell (33) – A switch-hitter with some power and minimal consistency. Bell is a defensive liability and has played first base sparingly over the past three seasons.
Wilmer Flores (34) – The veteran infielder is essentially a bench player that can be used in platoon situations. He’s like a younger version of Donovon Solano, who is also a free agent.
Ty France (31) – The former Mariner recently won a Gold Glove at first base, but it’s unlikely he’ll ever return to his All-Star form in 2022. Last offseason he had one MLB contract offer (Twins). But he could be a low-cost option for a mid-market team in need for a veteran first baseman.
Paul Goldschmidt (38) – The former MVP had a decent season with the Yankees, posting a .274/.328/.403 slash line with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 45 RBIs, 36 walks and 100 strikeouts in 534 plate appearances. He was used in a platoon role for much of the season with some success vs. lefties.
Rhys Hoskins (33) – The Brewers are expected to decline his $18 million mutual option for 2026. His production has declined heavily due to nagging injuries.
Carlos Santana (40) – He eschewed a two-year contract with Seattle last offseason to sign with the Guardians and was designated for assignment in August. He’s no longer an everyday player.
Rowdy Tellez (31) – He started the season in Seattle and finished with the Rangers. Texas could bring him back as an affordable option at first base.
LaMonte Wade Jr. (32) – a one-time on-base machine that struggled to stay healthy and produce. Someone will take a flyer on him on a minor-league deal this spring.