HOUSTON – When the Mariners jog onto the field Tuesday night at T-Mobile Park, they will be the first Seattle team since 2001 to be in control of winning the American League West entering the final week of the season.
With a stellar three-game sweep of the rival Astros over the weekend at Daikin Park, the Mariners start the final week with an 87-69 record, leading the division by three games over Houston. Because they own the tiebreaker over the Astros, the three-game lead essentially is four.
Their magic number to win the division is three games. Any Seattle win or Houston loss reduces that number by one. Mathematically, the Mariners could clinch the division by Wednesday. They can clinch a postseason berth Tuesday with a win over the Rockies and a Yankees win over the White Sox.
The Mariners also hold a two-game lead and the tiebreaker over Detroit for the AL’s second seed in the playoffs, which ensures a bye through the wild-card round.
Their magic number to clinch that spot is four games.
The weekend offered some chaos in the standings, as the Tigers were swept at home by the Braves and the Guardians won three out of four from the Twins.
The Toronto Blue Jays clinched a spot in the postseason Sunday at Kansas City. But they still have some work to do to secure the AL East title.
Seven teams are vying for six spots and are separated by at most five losses. All seven teams were scheduled off Monday and will play six consecutive games starting Tuesday to close out the season. The division winners have yet to be decided, and the overall seeding might come down the final day.
Here’s a look at what’s left for the teams with legitimate postseason hopes.
Seattle Mariners
Record: 87-69 overall (48-27 home/39-42 road)
Remaining games: Three games vs. Rockies (43-113), three vs. Dodgers (88-68)
The Mariners open a three-game series Tuesday against the worst team in Major League Baseball. The Rockies have an 18-57 road record. Seattle will start Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo in the first two games. The third game was scheduled to be Bryan Woo’s start, but the Mariners are waiting to see how feels after leaving his start on Friday with pectoral tightness.
Besides clinching the division, the Mariners would love to hang on to the second seed in the postseason and bypass three-game wild-card round. That could make at least the first game against the Dodgers have some meaning.
Los Angeles holds a three-game lead over the Padres in the NL West with a magic number of three to clinch.
If the Mariners clinch the second seed, they would play the winner of the wild-card series between the AL Central champs and the third wild card.
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 90-66 overall (50-25 home/40-41 road)
Remaining games: Three vs. Boston (85-71), three vs. Tampa (76-80)
The Blue Jays hold a two-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East along with the tiebreaker. Their magic number to win the American League over New York is four games. Clinching the East is almost a given considering for the Blue Jays they play their final six games at Rogers Centre, where they have a ridiculous 50-25 record.
How they do against Boston could have other effects on the wild-card seeding.
New York Yankees
Record: 88-68 overall (44-31 home/44-37 road)
Remaining games: Three vs. White Sox (57-96), three vs. Orioles (73-83)
To repeat, the Yankees have the easiest remaining schedule among the contending teams. New York holds a three-game lead over the Red Sox for the top wild-card spot but don’t hold the tiebreaker. Given their schedule, the Yankees should finish with the top wild-card spot.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 85-71 overall (46-32 home/39-39 road)
Remaining games: Three at Toronto (89-64), three vs. Detroit (85-68)
The Red Sox have the toughest closing schedule of any playoff contender, with six games against postseason-eligible teams. The last three games against Detroit at Fenway Park could determine the AL Central winner and the seeding for multiple spots in the postseason, including the Mariners. The Red Sox have dominated the Rays, have been owned by the Blue Jays and were swept in a three-game series by the Tigers earlier in the season.
Boston holds tiebreakers over the Yankees, Guardians and Astros. But the tiebreaker with the Tigers will be decided in the final weekend.
Houston Astros
Record: 84-72 overall (46-35 home/38-37 road)
Remaining games: Three at Sacramento (73-83), three at Anaheim (70-86)
The Astros entered the series with the Mariners after sweeping the Rangers. But they looked nothing like a division winner against Seattle. At first glance, the Astros’ remaining schedule seems easy, but they’ve lost six of their 10 games vs. the A’s this season. The A’s are 32-25 since the All-Star break. Houston’s starting pitching is still uncertain for the series, and standout shortstop Jeremy Peña is dealing with an oblique issue. The Angels are a train wreck, but the Astros also are trending in that direction. Houston also doesn’t hold tiebreakers over any contending teams.
Detroit Tigers
Record: 85-71 overall (46-35 home/39-36 road)
Remaining games: Three at Cleveland (81-71), three at Boston (83-70)
On July 15 the Tigers held a 14-game lead in the AL Central, including a 15 1/2-game lead over the Guardians. They now hold a one-game lead over Cleveland.
The Tigers are reeling, having lost six in a row – all at Comerica Park – and nine of their past 10 games.
The series vs. the Guardians at Progressive Field will help determine the AL Central winner. The Tigers need to sweep Cleveland to win the season series and own the tiebreaker. But the series at Fenway Park could determine their playoff future. The Tigers have the tiebreaker over Houston, which could loom large.
Cleveland Guardians
Record: 84-72 overall (41-34 home/43-38 road)
Remaining games: Three vs. Detroit (85-68), three vs. Texas (79-74)
On Sept. 4 Cleveland lost 4-2 to the Rays to fall to 69-70 and sit 3.5 games back of the third wild card with the Rangers, Royals and Rays ahead of them. Since that day, they’ve won 15 of 17 games to catapult themselves back into the playoff race with a chance to win the AL Central.
The Guardians hold a tiebreaker over the Astros. But they lose the tiebreaker to the Mariners, which would be big if they win the AL Central.