Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

The 2025 season was another heartbreaker for the Mariners. Thankfully, they have a lot of good things in place for the future.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Julio Rodríguez, CF: $162MM through 2034 (deal contains complicated option structure beginning after 2028)
• Cal Raleigh, C: $94MM through 2030 (deal includes 2031 vesting option)
• Luis Castillo, RHP: $45.5MM through 2027 (deal includes 2028 conditional club option/vesting option)
• J.P. Crawford, SS: $11MM through 2026
• Víctor Robles, OF: $5MM through 2026 (includes $500K buyout on $9MM club option for 2027)

Option Decisions

• IF Jorge Polanco has $6MM player option with $750K buyout
• Club has $7MM option for RHP Andrés Muñoz, plus two more club options for 2027-28
• Mitch Garver, C/DH: $12MM mutual option with $1MM buyout

2026 guarantees (assuming Polanco and Garver become free agents): $76.5MM
Total future commitments: $326.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Trent Thornton (5.148): $2.5MM
• Randy Arozarena (5.129): $18.2MM
• Logan Gilbert (4.144): $10MM
• Gabe Speier (4.000): $1.7MM
• George Kirby (3.151): $5.4MM
• Tayler Saucedo (3.146): $1.1MM
• Matt Brash (3.121): $1.8MM
• Luke Raley (3.106): $1.8MM
• Gregory Santos (3.055): $800K
• Bryce Miller (2.153): $2.4MM

Non-tender candidates: Thornton, Saucedo, Raley, Santos

Free Agents

• Eugenio Suárez, Josh Naylor, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Caleb Ferguson, Luke Jackson

In many ways, it was a fantastic season for the Mariners. They got a historic performance from catcher Cal Raleigh. They won the American League West for the first time since 2001 and made it to the ALCS for the first time since that same season.

But the dream ended there. It seemed they were on the cusp of their first World Series appearance when they went up 2-0 on the Blue Jays in the ALCS. The Jays tied the series up 2-2 but the Mariners managed to win Game 5, putting them one victory away. Seattle lost Game 6 but had a 3-1 lead in Game 7, until George Springer‘s home run put the Jays over the top.

So often in recent history, the Mariners have been a strong team but not quite strong enough. In 2021, they finished two games back of a playoff spot. They made it to the playoffs in 2022 and survived the Wild Card round, before getting swept out of the ALDS in agonizing fashion. The third game went 18 innings with the Mariners unable to score, losing 1-0 to the division-rival Astros. In both 2023 and 2024, they missed the playoffs by a single game. In a sense, 2025 was a step forward, but it was yet another case of getting so close that the final blow was all the more crushing.

Though the pain is fresh for many fans, there’s a lot to feel good about in the future. The division is wide open. The Angels haven’t been good in years. The A’s are on the rise but still have lots of question marks. The Astros and Rangers have some veteran talent but are starting to feel a bit old and creaky, with both clubs facing budget crunches. The Seattle roster, meanwhile, is loaded with talent. A few guys are set to depart via free agency but the M’s have payroll space and one of the best farm systems in baseball.