While most of the league’s postseason races are more or less wrapped up at this point, one highly competitive race remains: that for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Yankees and Red Sox have commanding leads for the first two spots that have pushed their playoff odds (per FanGraphs) to 99.7% and 97.4% respectively, but the rest of the field remains fairly open. Three clubs are within two games of the final spot. Who will make it to October among that group? A look at each of those teams:
Seattle Mariners (73-67)
The Mariners are currently in control of the final AL Wild Card spot. Cal Raleigh is in the midst of an MVP-caliber season behind the plate, and he’s been supported by Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena in the middle of the lineup. Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez were added at the trade deadline to help further bolster the offense Suarez slumped for his first two-plus weeks back in Seattle but is back to form, hitting .265/.345/.592 over his past 14 games.
The rotation that was widely expected to be the club’s strength, however, has looked fairly pedestrian. Only Bryan Woo has stood out from the crowd as George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert have all been closer to average starters than ace-caliber arms. Bryce Miller was injured for much of the year and has struggled when healthy. Still, the bullpen remains elite, and the club is in solid position in the standings even after this week’s sweep at the hands of the Rays. They have an outside shot at winning the AL West, sitting 3.5 games out with a three-game set against the Astros later this month. They’ll need to fend off the Royals in Kansas City for three games as well.
Texas Rangers (72-69)
Sitting just 1.5 games back of the Mariners, Texas is in position to pounce if Seattle falters. A schedule that gives them six games against Houston as they sit five games back in the AL West leaves a small chance at capturing the division or perhaps pushing the Astros far enough down the standings that the Mariners claim the West while the Rangers take the Wild Card for themselves.
Even with the advantage of controlling their own destiny, actually making good on that will be difficult for Texas. Key players like Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Tyler Mahle and Evan Carter are all on the injured list. Wyatt Langford will be leaned on heavily to help carry the offense. A resurgent Jacob deGrom and deadline acquisition Merrill Kelly are still on hand to lead the rotation, and former No. 2 pick Jack Leiter has been excellent over his past 12 starts (2.89 ERA, 28.2 K%). Will the remaining pieces of the team be enough to push them into the playoffs?
Kansas City Royals (71-69)
Like the Rangers, the Royals have managed to hang around the Wild Card race despite significant injuries. Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans have missed much of the year, and Seth Lugo has now joined them on the shelf. That leaves Michael Wacha and rookie Noah Cameron as the team’s most likely starters for the Wild Card series if they can make it into the postseason.
The good news is that the addition of Mike Yastrzemski has been a game-changer for the lineup. He’s belted seven homers in 107 plate appearances and batted .242/.327/.560 overall in Kansas City, joining Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Bobby Witt Jr. to form an impressive top four. Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg are a quality duo at the back-end of the bullpen, and three home games against the Mariners give them plenty of control over their fate.
Tampa Bay Rays (71-69)
Baseball’s hottest team has won seven games in a row, including a sweep of the Mariners in Seattle and a Thursday victory over the Guardians that pushed Cleveland 3.5 games out in the Wild Card chase. Junior Caminero is the envy of the league at third base, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe are as impressive as ever in the middle of the lineup, and Drew Rasmussen (2.66 ERA over his past 10 starts) looks capable of going head-to-head with just about any pitcher as a Game One starter. Thirteen games against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Cubs over the course of the rest of the season leave the Rays with plenty of adversity, but perhaps their young talent can stay hot and push them to October.
Which of these teams will come out on top and join the Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros in the postseason? Will the Mariners be able to hold on? Will the Royals or Rangers overcome their injury woes to force their way in? Or can the Rays stay hot through the end of the year? Have your say in the poll below:
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