The Mariners today provided an update on outfielder Víctor Robles, who was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday due to a left shoulder dislocation. Today’s update says that the dislocation caused a small fracture in the humeral head in his left shoulder. The club believes that the fracture will heal without surgery, though Robles will be continually monitored to ensure that is the case. Even if he does continue to avoid surgery, the club estimates it will take him six weeks to heal, followed by a six-week rehab process. That suggests he will miss about 12 weeks even in a best-case scenario.
Of course, if there are any setbacks along the way or if it’s determined that Robles will instead require surgical intervention, that timeline would change. In either scenario, given that Robles is already looking at an absence that would extend to around the All-Star break, doubts about his ability to return this season could arise. For now, however, the Mariners are surely relieved that the injury doesn’t look to be season-ending in nature.
Robles, 27, was a longtime top prospect with the Nationals who debuted in as a 20-year-old in 2017 but never quite found his footing as a regular in Washington. He looked on the cusp of a breakout when he hit .258/.328/.430 with plus defense in 2018-19, his age-21 and age-22 seasons, but in 1124 plate appearances from 2020 through the time of his release last May, he batted only .222/.301/.308.
The Mariners signed Robles to a big league deal early last June and were almost immediately rewarded for their show of faith. He filled a bench role early on but played so well in a limited role that he forced himself into the everyday lineup before long. In 77 games with Seattle, Robles turned in a superlative .322/.393/.467 batting line with four homers, 20 doubles and an eye-catching 30 steals in just 31 tries.
Robles was never going to sustain the .388 average on balls in play that propped up his batting line, but he also showed vastly improved contact skills, cutting the 24% strikeout rate he’d displayed from 2020-24 (27.3% with the Nats last year) all the way to 16.8% as a Mariner.
With Seattle, Robles proved much more aggressive, increasing his swing rate at pitches over the plate by several percentage points and also improving his contact rate on said swings. He swung at only 49% of pitches over the plate up through the 2023 season and made contact on 84.5% of those swings; with the Mariners, he offered at 53% of pitches in the zone and made contact at an 87.1% clip.
Even with some expected regression, the Mariners’ version of Robles looked like a more balanced hitter than the one who’d spent several years struggling in D.C. The Mariner front office clearly believed that to be the case, as Robles inked a two-year, $9.75MM contract covering his first two free agent years last summer. The deal spans the 2025-26 campaigns and includes a club option for 2027.
More to come.