Cal Raleigh had one of the most historic seasons in MLB history. In most other seasons, that level of production would win an MVP. Hitting 60 home runs from the most demanding position in the sport defies logic and is unlikely to be repeated. Peak power seasons of this magnitude almost always regress year to year, even for elite hitters. Simply due to the variance inherent in home runs. But Raleigh’s mechanics, approach and raw power point towards another dominant year in 2026, even if the home runs come down.
Why Regression Doesn’t Mean Decline
The question, not only from Mariners fans but from across the league, is what can be expected from Cal Raleigh in 2026. If there is a significant drop-off, the Mariners will suffer as a result. For Seattle, the concern is not a modest dip in home run totals. But whether Raleigh’s overall offensive impact can continue to carry them. Of course, they cannot be too dependent on any player, but Raleigh is an essential piece of the offense. As they look to improve on the margins of their roster, consistent success from the likes of Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez are essential. However, Raleigh’s underlying numbers do not indicate that any major decline is coming. Another productive season from one of the league’s premier offensive talents remains the expectation.
What stands out most in Raleigh’s profile is his combination of bat speed, raw power, and attack angle. These traits are among the most stable indicators of power production year over year. Particularly for hitters who do not rely solely on timing or short-term contact quality spikes.
The Underlying Power Profile
Raleigh’s bat speed of 75 mph (89th percentile) and attack angle of 18 degrees allow him to post one of the best barrel rates in the league (99th percentile). A max exit velocity of 114.7 mph gives him one of the highest power ceilings in baseball. He is also able to pull the ball in the air 38.4% of the time, from both sides of the plate. Raleigh’s zone-based damage profile shows a hitter doing consistent, intentional damage in the areas where pitchers most often attack. Reinforcing that his power output is driven by a repeatable process rather than isolated outcomes.
Hitters who consistently deliver the barrel on an optimal plane tend to generate repeatable lift. Allowing them to be late and still do damage or adjust to velocity. Because this is tied to physical traits and swing efficiency, it is far more stable than outcome-based statistics. These metrics capture a hitter’s underlying power tools rather than statistics that can be tied to the variance of a single season. In Raleigh’s case, they have remained consistent throughout his time in the major leagues. Even before last season’s jump in production elevated him into the group of the most destructive hitters in baseball. Unlike power profiles reliant solely on strength or timing, Raleigh’s damage comes from consistently elevated contact combined with elite exit velocity.
This combination of elite plane efficiency, contact quality, and top-end raw power keeps him among the most dangerous hitters in the league.
The Offensive Floor
Importantly, Raleigh exhibits elite plate discipline. Boasting a 95th percentile walk rate. This is essential in providing a high offensive floor, particularly for a high-strikeout power hitter. Having consistent avenues to reach base is vital for sustained production, especially as Raleigh is not a high-average hitter.
Additionally, Raleigh excels against fastballs. His fastball and sinker run values of 16 and 12 show that he consistently punishes the most common pitch types. As pitchers continue to prioritize fastballs and sinkers, this skill set should continue to translate into offensive success. Even as opponents adjust, the ability to consistently damage fastballs forces pitchers into less optimal secondary usage patterns.
While it would be unfair to expect the same level of home run production from Cal Raleigh again, regression in raw totals should be viewed as a recalibration rather than a warning sign. His power metrics, quality of contact, and ability to draw walks indicate that Raleigh should once again be one of the most valuable offensive weapons in the American League in 2026.
Main Photo credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images