HOUSTON – Coming into the 2021 season, the decision concerning Yusei Kikuchi’s four-year club option seemed to fall somewhere between a slim possibility to unlikely based on the previous two seasons.
On July 2, a day after he tossed seven innings against a loaded Blue Jays lineup, allowing one run on five hits and striking out 10 batters to improve to 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA, the choice was in the category of highly likely to almost definitely.
A week ago, even after he tossed seven shutout innings against the Astros in his best start of an abysmal second half of the season, the stretch of inconsistency seemed to move the outcome toward “why would they” to “there is no choice.”
But if there was any lingering apprehension within the Mariners’ front office on the pending decision concerning Kikuchi’s long term future with the franchise, it should’ve been assuaged Monday evening, watching him uncork wayward fastballs for noncompetitive misses and lifeless secondary pitches that were either clubbed or crushed.
With the Mariners feeling something more than hope about the American League wild-card race, Kikuchi delivered his worst outing since, well, his last start in Houston on Aug. 20, sending his team an almost-certain defeat before the second inning ended in what would eventually be a disappointing 11-2 drubbing by Houston.
The Mariners fell to 75-63 and remain three games behind the Red Sox (79-61), who lost a wild game to the Rays. The Blue Jays (74-62) moved into a tie with Seattle with an 8-0 shutout of the Yankees.
All of the good feeling from the Mariners’ five-game winning streak, the first two of which were victories over the Astros, including Kikuchi’s last start, and the three-game sweep over the Diamondbacks, dissipated as Kikuchi labored to simply throw strikes.
His pending struggles were evident from the first batter he faced when he walked Jose Altuve on four pitches. He only escaped the first inning scoreless because he caught Altuve napping at second base and executed a deft pick-off throw to J.P. Crawford. It might have been his most accurate throw of the night.
The outing and any optimistic outcome ended in the second inning when Kikuchi walked Carlos Correa on four pitches, walked Yuli Gurriel on six pitches and walked Kyle Tucker on four pitches to load the bases.
To his credit, he did come back with a first-pitch strike on a changeup to Aledmys Diaz. And a 1-1 cutter to Diaz produced a hard ground ball to second baseman Abraham Toro. But the converted third baseman, perhaps in a malaise from the inactivity to start the inning, misplayed the sure double-play ball, allowing two runs to score.
If Toro makes that play, Kikuchi probably escapes the second with one or two runs allowed, but nothing about his pitches to that mistake pointed to a change in the outcome, perhaps just a prolonging of the agony.
It snowballed from there. After getting a first-pitch strike on a fastball to Jake Meyers, Kikuchi left a changeup up in the strikezone that was deposited off the signage high above the Crawford Boxes in left field for a three-run homer and a 5-0 lead. Kikuchi wouldn’t finish the inning. He got a flyball out to the deepest part of Minute Maid Park, gave up a double to Altuve, retired Alex Bregman on a groundout to short and served up a linedrive double to center to Yordan Alvarez that scored Altuve.Manager Scott Servais finally halted the carnage, bringing in lefty Justus Sheffield to finish the second and give them multiple innings to save the bullpen.
Kikuchi’s final line – 1 2/3 innings pitched, six runs allowed (four earned) on three hits with four walks and no strikeouts. He threw 42 pitches with just 19 strikes, only nine strikes on his 23 fastballs. In comparison to his last outing, he threw 44 strikes on 62 fastballs. There was also a drop in velocity by almost 2-3 mph on the fastball and noticeable lack of movement and life on all of his pitches.
And while all pitchers deal with outings where their stuff, velocity or command is below normal, the unpredictably displayed by Kikuchi since he signed as a free agent before the 2019 season has been maddening for the Mariners. The only sort of consistency he’s displayed is that 15-start stretch the beginning of the season till July 1.
Since then, he’s made 11 starts, posting a 1-5 record and a 6.32 ERA. He’s only pitched a total of 52 2/3 innings in those 11 outings, striking out 56 batters and walking 26 with only three starts of six innings or more. During that time, opposing hitters have a .293/.380/.553 slash line with 11 homers.
In 67 starts with Seattle, he has a 15-23 record with a 4.95 ERA. He has 29 quality starts of six-plus innings pitched and three runs or fewer allowed and 33 outings of five innings or fewer pitched.
It’s why it seems unfathomable for the Mariners to exercise the club option negotiated by agent Scott Boras for Kikuchi, which is for not for one seasons but the 2022-2025 seasons with annual salary of $16.5 million – a four-season total of $66 million. Seattle has three days after the World Series to make that decision.
If the Mariners decline to exercise the option, it becomes a one-year player option for 2022 at $13 million dollars. Kikuchi could then choose to exercise that option and pitch at that salary in 2022 for Seattle or decline it and become a free agent. If the Mariners were to exercise that option, they will pay almost $110 million in salary to Kikuchi over seven years, which is more than Kyle Seager made on his extension.
Down 6-0 in a place that has been their personal house of horror for the last three seasons, the Mariners tried to scratch back into it. Toro lashed a two-run double into the left field corner off of Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. that made it 6-2 in the third.
But as been the case so often at Minute Maid, the score turned lopsided with missed plays and stranded baserunners. The Astros tacked on two runs off of Sheffield in the fifth and three off Sean Doolittle in the sixth to make it a rout.
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